The world continued to be ground down by violence at home and wars in Ukraine, Israel, and Sudan, and yet stock markets soared. Will 2025 be worse, better, or similar? Forecasting is always foolish, but signs, trends, personalities, and events point to specific probable outcomes. Technology will continue to revolutionize human existence, for better or worse. Stock markets and crypto will rise in value. Wars will continue, but the shooting in Ukraine may stop. However, this year, the principal geopolitical roles will be played by Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, who hold opposing world views and strategies. Trump will mainly conduct geo-economic “warfare” to improve American living standards by imposing tariffs, upending trade, and backing Silicon Valley’s powerful tech oligarchy to dominate science, space, AI, and quantum computing. His “America First” approach aims to generate wealth that will underpin America’s military might and global influence. Vladimir Putin, on the other hand, will continue to destroy wealth to make Russia Great Again. He strides a kleptocracy and wants to recreate the Soviet Union by causing conflicts across Europe, Asia, South America, the Middle East, and Africa. Putin is the richest person on Earth. Trump is a wealthy man who heads the most prosperous and strongest nation in the history of the world. The two face off in 2025 with vastly different worldviews and ambitions, and the world awaits its fate.
The world has experienced the highest number of conflicts since World War II, thanks mainly to Putin. He launched the Ukrainian, Israeli, and Sudanese wars and stoked disruption globally. In the past three years, the number of conflict zones worldwide has increased by two-thirds. “The proportion of the world engulfed by conflict is equivalent to nearly double the size of India,” reported The Guardian. “Ukraine, Myanmar, the Middle East, and a “conflict corridor” around Africa’s Sahel region have seen wars and unrest spread and intensify since 2021.”
By December, ten countries were categorized as “extreme conflicts”: Palestine, Myanmar, Syria, Mexico, Nigeria, Brazil, Lebanon, Sudan, Cameroon, and Colombia. Other geopolitical flashpoints exist that may result in violent confrontations sometime in 2025. These include the Indo-Pacific, where bilateral disputes concerning territory and shipping routes may lead to direct confrontation. Tensions are rising in China-Taiwan, North Korea-South Korea, and China-Philippines. Russia’s new war alliance with North Korea this year has rattled the region. China’s intermittent saber rattling about Taiwan is a distraction but raises concern even more. Wealthy Japan and South Korea now openly debate about adding nukes to their militaries, especially if American troops in their nations are withdrawn as Trump has pledged. But China expert and former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd recently said the China threat to Taiwan is nonsense. The island nation is safe because of the QUAD, a military alliance designed to contain China, comprised of the U.S., India, Japan, and Australia. “There will be no invasion of Taiwan. The QUAD is too powerful. China knows that.”
Trump’s economic “war” involves imposing tariffs on China and allies alike. This will generate significant geopolitical ripple effects. Plans to levy 60% tariffs on China will worsen its economic struggles, causing financial and regional knock-on effects. Plans to impose 20% tariffs and demand more military spending in Europe will add to its woes. The Ukrainian war has already unsettled the European Union. Millions of refugees have flooded its countries, and massive costs to fortify borders and armies have begun. In 2025, Trump’s demands will further slow down their economies. Canada and Mexico also face 25% tariffs, difficult for nations like them because they are economically integrated with America.
This year, Mexico and most of Latin America may become a full-blown geopolitical crisis. Trump intends to stop the flow of illegal migrants and drugs from Latin America via Mexico and should. His tariffs will pressure Mexico to enhance interdiction efforts, but its institutions are weak and corrupt. Violent drug cartels control the country as well as distribution inside the United States for narcotics and illegal aliens, which is why outright U.S. military intervention will eventually be necessary. Last spring, Republican Nikki Haley proposed that special operatives be sent to help Mexico dismantle its cartels. That will be difficult to negotiate with its new President, but thousands of Army Rangers and Marines are needed to eradicate these violent and wealthy criminal organizations. Mexico, already a war zone, may become another Vietnam.
Add to that specter is Trump’s mass deportation plan that will impose another hardship on Mexico (and Canada, where many may seek asylum before being deported) as well as the other countries in the region. He will impose trade sanctions against those involved in cocaine and fentanyl production. Authoritarian regimes in Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua, and Central America will be damaged and may resist. Colombia, Peru, and Ecuador will balk but comply. Whatever outcomes occur, these skirmishes and more violence will disrupt economies and interrupt legitimate trade or investment flows across the region.
The Middle East will also worsen. Putin’s support for Iran and its Hamas and Hezbollah terrorists on October 7 derailed Trump’s Abraham Accord Palestinian solution. It sparked a regional war, resulting in the invasions of Gaza and Lebanon, then indirectly the overthrow of Syria’s regime and expulsion of Russian and Iranian military forces that propped it up. This exit represented a significant setback for Russia’s regional ambitions, and more will follow. Trump demands that Israeli hostages be released or “all Hell will break loose” and is weighing options to prevent Iran from going nuclear by launching preemptive strikes, according to The Times of Israel.
The only positive development in 2024 was that Putin’s economy continued to crumble, his shooting wars flagged, and his war against the U.S. dollar was a flop. He has tried to convince the BRICS nations to abandon their use to reduce America’s economic dominance. However, Trump has threatened to impose 100% tariffs against any country that officially diversifies away from the dollar. This will do the trick and already has. Major players like China and India aren’t abandoning the U.S. dollar but are gradually promoting more use of their own currencies.
In 2025, Trump’s hardball approaches will work. Money talks, and hopefully, Putin will walk.
I wish I could share your confidence in Trump. I wish our future didn’t depend so much on a narcissistic and deeply flawed octogenarian. But I will hope, with you, for better days. Happy New Year, Diane Francis, and thank you for writing and sharing.
always a perspective and compilation of facts and premises that mainstream news in America seems incapable of presenting