A Tripolar World
December 8, 2025
On December 4, Trump released his dangerous new US National Security Strategy for the United States. It was weirdly silent concerning Russia’s global terrorism and relatively benign toward China. However, it described Europe as a continent in economic decline, warned that European nations face “civilisational erasure” because of migration, and suggested that Europe would never be a reliable ally. Not surprisingly, Russia praised the report, and Europeans were upset. Attacking allies is always self-destructive, helpful to enemies, and, worse, his assertions were based on incorrect information and glaring omissions. For instance, Donald Trump and his team obviously hadn’t noticed in August that the European Union’s GDP surpassed that of China, making the trading bloc the world’s second-largest economic powerhouse after the United States. Trump’s anti-European screed also ignored that Europe is not only rich but is militarizing. To the clear-eyed, it revealed that Trump is biased and badly informed, and that he’s missed the reality that the world order is now “tripolar”, anchored by the US, Europe, and then China.
Furthermore, the EU alone is a giant economic entity, but it is only part of the European story. The United Kingdom, Norway, and Turkey, plus six other small nations, are not EU members, and their economies add another 5% of global GDP to the European total, for 23%, or slightly less than America’s 26.2%.* The other missing data point in Trump’s strategic report is that Europe is mobilizing, and that, once Russia’s war is over, Ukraine will join the EU, and its superior technology and military-industrial complex will help propel the continent into superpower status. Germany, an economic giant but pacifist nation, just launched a $100-billion “war plan” to rebuild its military because its leaders believe Russia will be ready to attack NATO in 2029 or earlier if Ukraine falters. Their plans will be a template for the rest of Europe.
(And GDP size matters: Russia, run by a maniacal Vladimir Putin, has superpower ambitions, but the US and Europe are far richer and stronger already, while Russia’s military has been damaged, its technological clout is minimal, and its economy shrinks and is currently smaller than Italy’s.)
So why has Trump decided to do business deals with Russia and declare Europe an “enemy”? If numbers, money, or logic drove a new American security strategy, it would obviously aim to bury Russia and stop its warmongering and make America Great Again by doing landmine business with the Europeans. Instead, as Moscow hurtles toward collapse and dissolution, and Putin lives like a Czar and poses as a global titan, Trump believes that Putin is a potential partner that should be kowtowed to.
Putin, like Trump, also scoffs at Europe and wages hybrid warfare at its edges. And yet Putin hopes and needs to be re-inducted into the G8 and global economy — a goal as unlikely as Hitler or Stalin being posthumously awarded Nobel Peace Prizes. He’s a thug, runs a mafia, and hasn’t been able to strut his stuff on the global stage since 2023, when an international warrant was issued for his arrest concerning war crimes. The International Criminal Court charged him with kidnapping tens of thousands of Ukrainian children, then handing them over for brainwashing and adoption. Countless other Russian war crimes mount as his troops rape, pillage, torture, and murder Ukrainians in occupied territories.
Trump can no longer label Europeans “freeloaders” because they listened to his scolding and have put up more money to help Ukraine fight Russia than has the United States. They have also muscled their way into the peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia because the Trump team’s 28-point “peace plan” is merely Russian talking points and aimed at overriding, sidelining, and weakening Europe. But this won’t happen. The EU will admit Ukraine as an EU member when the war is over. It will keep Ukraine’s army strong and eventually hand over the $350 billion in frozen Russian funds it legally controls to Kyiv for defending, rebuilding, and strengthening the country. By 2028, the EU will be weaned from Russian energy, and Europeans will block any of Putin’s efforts to rejoin the global economy or G8.
Trump also ignores the reality that the US-EU economic relationship is beneficial and presents opportunities that Putin’s promised deals will never yield. The US and EU struck a tariff deal recently that resulted in an effective average tariff of between 12 and 16 percent, and Europe has been buying more US agricultural and manufactured goods, as well as billions of dollars’ worth of American weapons for Ukraine, plus for their own forces. It’s also buying liquefied natural gas imports from the United States, making America the world’s largest LNG exporter. Besides, the EU is a conduit to more trade for Americans because it is the top trading partner in 72 countries, accounting for nearly 40 percent of global GDP.
Some question Europe’s prospects as a superpower because it is not as resource-rich and fully militarized as the United States or China. But the EU plans to create a single, common market for critical minerals, in partnership with the US. The EU is also formalizing partnerships with resource-rich nations—many of them former colonies or long-standing trading partners. Ukraine also has critical minerals and energy.
Militarily, Europe has two nuclear powers and will build a continental armed force, but is reducing its bureaucratic paralysis. The EU is addressing this because the single economy and government cannot afford endless consultations, vetoes, and regulatory obstacles. Similarly, the United States is often bogged down with polarization, congressional dysfunction, and 50 states that behave like separate sovereignties. But Europe has more at stake and no time to waste. Most importantly, Europe must eject Hungary, now a Russian outpost inside the EU, which vetoes and undermines policies vital to the Union’s survival. The recent stunt with Hungarian President Victor Orban in Moscow, praising Putin and bad-mouthing Ukraine, is grounds to boot him out. Jettisoning that country would be inconsequential because Hungary’s GDP is equivalent to the Region of Nuremberg.
A Tripolar World is desirable. Russia’s shrinking importance (or potential dissolution, see “Russia Will Collapse”) and Europe’s ascendancy in partnership with America will help deal with China. The US and Europe are China’s biggest customers, which gives them leverage and influence over Beijing. All of Europe surpassed China because its economies are more robust and have become the world’s leading global exporters at a time when China’s high-growth period has slowed, with its population declining and productivity growth flattening.
A new global order will evolve around the United States with its unmatched economic, military, and technological capabilities; China with massive industrial capacity; and a newly unified Europe wielding economic might, tech expertise, and a strengthened military framework anchored by Ukraine. Ironically, Putin set out in 2022 to destroy Ukraine and fracture Europe. Instead, he has revitalized both. Europe, with Ukraine, will shape the 21st century alongside the United States and China.
*The EU and NATO have respectively 27 and 32 member states, of which 23 are members of both. Another four NATO members are EU applicants—Albania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Turkey—and another one, the United Kingdom, is a former EU member. Iceland and Norway have opted to remain outside of the EU, but do participate in the European Single Market as part of their European Economic Area (EEA) membership. Four non-NATO states are members of the EU: Austria, Cyprus, Ireland, and Malta. Wikipedia.
A very positive take on events. Fingers crossed that this all becomes reality.
I'm still shocked by the NSS but so appreciate your well-argued (compelling yet calming) analysis!