The historic agreement between the United States, United Kingdom, and Australia to equip the Aussies with a fleet of eight nuclear-powered attack submarines is a strategic masterstroke by President Joe Biden. It’s also a glimpse into Biden’s new world order which will be underpinned by military alliances to contain and bridle troublesome nations. In this case, the trilateral partnership is aimed at the increasingly bellicose People’s Republic of China which has been threatening its neighbors — or building railroads for them — to gain hegemony or advantage over the critically important East China Sea and the South China Sea regions.
Xi Jinping is not another Vladimir Putin, but he’s made himself President for life, commands the largest navy in the world, and has begun to take pieces off the chessboard, notably Hong Kong. Last year, he abrogated an agreement with Britain to retain the city-state’s democracy until 2047, threatens to invade Taiwan, and has invaded a portion of India. And yet, the Chinese are shocked and furious about this submarine deal.
China’s aggression is not about spreading Communism. It’s about obtaining control of shipping lanes and waterways in the South China Sea and the East China Sea. Both bodies of water are a tangle of competing claims involving trade, fishing rights, and possession of a few small islands. Their strategic importance is that they are the watery corridor that links two of the world’s largest economies – China and Japan plus powerhouses like South Korea and Taiwan — with the Middle East, Europe, and the rest of Asia. Most of the world’s trade passes through this route and at least 14 nation-states have skin in the outcome of this Great Game.
The Australian announcement took everyone by surprise and has also upset France, whose $8-billion contract to provide Australia with 12 conventional submarines was cavalierly canceled. In protest, France recalled both its American and Australian Ambassadors and a major German newspaper labeled the sub snub as a slap in the face against Europe and NATO. But it’s not. This is about properly policing the world’s most important shipping lanes with submarines and ships from three nations in order to ensure safe passage and to keep the peace in Asia.
This Australian deal is only the most high-profile of several alliances being devised by Biden’s team to contain China. These submarines will join vessels that now patrol waters also claimed by Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia as well as seas surrounding Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea. Not coincidentally, the Philippines is cozying up to Washington and just signed a fighter jet deal, Taiwan is bolstering its defense capability with U.S. help, South Korea’s armed forces are increasing in size, and Japan is boosting its defense budget faced as it now faces heightened missile threats from North Korea. Talks are underway with the two Malacca Strait proprietors (Malaysia and Indonesia), and there are even rumors that the United States might establish a naval base in Vietnam.
All these developments are reactions to China’s misbehavior as is the creation of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue – a military, intelligence alliance that’s been around for a few years consisting of India, Japan, Australia, and the United States. The “Quad” will become the NATO of the Far East and many more countries have begun to attend its meetings as observers with a view toward eventually joining. Significantly, Biden’s first summit in office was with the Quad in March, and on September 24 he will host in Washington the heads of state of the other three founding members for another summit.
Naturally, China is upset and its official newspaper, Global Times, seethed and threatened indirectly: “Chinese military experts warned that such a move will potentially make Australia a target of a nuclear strike if a nuclear war breaks out.”
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian said the deal with Australia "seriously damages regional peace and stability, intensifies the arms race and undermines the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons."
The facts are that the Australian subs will be nuclear-powered, not outfitted with nuclear weapons, according to all three governments. And the Chinese, not the Quad, has been threatening peace in the region by harassing and blocking shipping lanes, threatening Taiwan, and threatening to drop bombs on Japan.
Australia has been China’s most vocal critic and, as a result, has been at loggerheads with Beijing for several years concerning Covid-19, trade, espionage, cybercrime, immigration, and the incarceration of two Australian citizens in China. Australia has been blunt in its criticism and demands, and anti-China polling there is sky-high. In return, China has played hardball and slashed imports of coal, wine, beef, lobsters, and barley; detained for months two Australian citizens of Chinese descent, and discouraged Chinese tourism and travel to Australia.
“Beijing has seen over the past months that Australia will not back down and the threats of economic retaliation and pressure simply will not work,” said U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken when the submarine announcement was made. “The United States will not leave Australia alone on the field or, better yet, on the pitch.”
This trilateral deal will also enhance air support and increase troop deployments in the region. Currently, there are 26,400 troops in South Korea, 53,700 in Japan, and 2,200 in Australia. (By contrast, there are 33,900 troops in Germany, 12,300 in Italy, and 9,300 in Britain.)
Biden’s pivot toward Asia is an American version of the Bamboo Curtain — the Cold War political demarcation between the Communist states of East Asia, particularly the People's Republic of China, Mongolia, and North Korea, and the capitalist and non-Communist states of East, South, and Southeast Asia. The Quad is there to organize all impacted nations and to chasten China with its bullying and outrageous offshore claims.
The sub deal is a win-win-win for all three nations. America is able to share the burden of peacekeeping with others. For Britain, the trilateral deal rekindles its “special relationship” with America and is a form of payback for China’s behavior in Hong Kong, undertaken because London was preoccupied and weakened by Brexit. Besides that, Britain’s former colonies, Australia and India, have also clearly cast their lot with the United States through the Quad itself. As for Australia, the acquisition of heavy weaponry and top-secret technology, enhances its diplomatic clout and importance.
For China, there is now a viable and formidable deterrent.
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NOTE to readers: In my September 16 newsletter “Dirty Skylines and Snow Washing” I republished a paragraph from think tank Global Financial Integrity’s “Acres of Money Laundering” report citing media reports about Dmytro Firtash, a Ukrainian oil tycoon fighting extradition to the United States. His well-known American lawyer, Lanny Davis, contacted me and asserted that the GFI quoted information contained factual errors so I immediately removed the paragraph from my archive. Davis also suggested that I refer my readers to his lengthy defense of Firtash and I’m happy to do so in the interests of fairness and balance. It appeared September 1 on the website RealClearDefense.com, and is entitled “Myths vs. Facts about Dmytro Firtash”. The link is here.
Thanks for noting effects of Brexit that go beyond the EU. Trump incompetence wasn't the only factor creating international waves.
Good to read the information from Firtash lawyer in your link.