Putin was a no-show in Istanbul on May 16 at a summit to end the war in Ukraine. For weeks, Trump and his team have negotiated with the Russians without success. Putin bobs, weaves, breaks truce commitments, resurrects old demands, and ignores threats about sanctions. Ukrainian President Zelensky arrived in Istanbul. Trump sent his top emissaries, but Putin sent a minor official. An exasperated Trump declared that “nothing will happen” until he and Putin meet soon and has set up a call for May 19 (today) to obtain a ceasefire. This marks the moment when Putin’s delays and disrespect finally backfired. An angry Congress has also prepared a new weapon for Trump: A “neutron bomb” of sanctions and draconian tariffs that could sink Russia and its allies.
Meanwhile, Putin just unleashed the worst drone attack in the war and amassed thousands more troops to attack and gain more territory before committing to any serious negotiations. General Wesley Clark said Trump must pivot and endorse the Congressional bill that would impose 500% tariffs on any country that buys Russian oil, gas, uranium, and other products. Republican Senator Lindsay Graham proposed the tariffs because “it’s clear to me, and I think it’s becoming clear to President Trump, that the Russians are playing games.”
In April, Senator Graham took action because Trump hadn’t taken enough concrete steps against Russia. Co-sponsored by Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal, the legislation is called the Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025 and has enough support in Congress to overcome a Presidential veto should the White House allow Putin to continue his games. The Act provides leverage in negotiations because it heaps on severe sanctions but, most importantly, slaps massive tariffs on Russia’s energy customers if Putin refuses to negotiate a peace agreement, violates a peace agreement, or invades Ukraine again in the future. These levies would tank Russia’s economy and damage its biggest energy buyers, such as China, India, Iran, pro-Putin Hungary, and Serbia. The EU has taken steps to disconnect from Russian energy products, but in 2024, 17% of gas and 18% of liquefied natural gas imports into the EU still came from Russia.
“I wanted him [Trump] to know what we were doing,” said Graham. “I’m not going to speak for him, but I will say that I hope he’s successful in a peace deal, and I’m optimistic. But we can’t let this go on forever.” Since April, support in the House of Representatives and Senate has surged for these tariffs as Putin continues to viciously attack Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure.
So far, Trump’s soft approach has allowed the dictator to avoid settlement and wreak havoc without consequences. Without pushback, Putin continues to be unreasonable by demanding complete capitulation by Ukraine, a reduction of its military, a ban against Ukraine joining NATO, no war reparations exacted from Russia, and a return of Moscow’s central bank assets of more than $300 billion that have been frozen in Western banks since the 2022 invasion. Senator Graham’s bill is also timely because Putin’s economy is a mess, and his army struggles, having gained only 1% of Ukrainian territory in the past two years. In essence, Trump now has “all the cards” and, thanks to Congress, can drop a tariff “bomb” that would unravel Putin’s oil-supported war machine and damage his cash flow from oil.
The noose tightens elsewhere. Pope Leo XIV met with Zelensky, spoke out strongly against the war in Ukraine, and offered the Vatican as a venue for peace talks. Trump’s Arab allies in OPEC have increased oil production, causing the price of Russian crude to fall. At the same time, Europe is finally getting its act together, notably due to the election of a “hawkish” chancellor in wealthy Germany, Friedrich Merz, who has come out in favor of doubling military help to Ukraine and seizing Russia’s frozen assets to rebuild its arsenal and cities. Further, the Ukrainians have escalated their aerial attacks inside Russia, damaging oil, industrial facilities, military operations, and infrastructure. Recently, thousands of air passengers were stranded in Moscow and St. Petersburg after devastating forays by drones and missiles rained down on airport facilities and aircraft.
On May 14, the EU passed its 17th set of sanctions. They target 189 more oil tankers, for a total of 350, part of Moscow’s “shadow fleet” that covertly ship oil worldwide. The EU also blacklists 75 more individuals and companies involved in Russia's military-industrial complex and 30 firms, including some in Kazakhstan, Serbia, Turkey, Uzbekistan, Vietnam, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), suspected of supplying Moscow with dual-use goods the West has prohibited. It also banned the export of EU-made chemicals used to produce missiles, then targeted intermediaries in China and the United Arab Emirates, which helped the Kremlin evade restrictions on oil shipments. The EU also placed sanctions on judges and prosecutors involved in persecuting Putin’s opponents, such as Vladimir Kara-Murza and the late Alexei Navalny. While helpful, one critic argued that the EU must be even bolder. “Sanctions should be so heavy that they would force Russia to shut down its aggression or face total economic ruin." Graham’s tariffs will do the trick.
As pressure increased on Putin, there was a perceptible change of heart inside the White House for several reasons. Trump signed a minerals deal with Ukraine, met Zelensky for a private discussion on the sidelines at Pope Francis’ funeral in the Vatican, and then Putin pulled his no-show stunt in Istanbul. The minerals deal, initiated by Kyiv, has upset many in Ukraine but will prove to have been the masterstroke that marked the beginning of the end of the war because it fused America’s interests with Ukraine’s outcome.
Zelensky’s next move was to implore Trump to meet with Putin in Istanbul. “I am ready to meet,” said Zelensky. “All of us in Ukraine want President Trump to be with us.” Trump was tied up in the Middle East, but the significance is that, in essence, Zelensky signaled total solidarity with the US, then called Putin’s bluff. His no-show demonstrated that Putin is the obstacle to peace, which has finally convinced Trump to set up a face-to-face meeting. Trump’s tone has also changed. Even his Ukraine-baiting Vice President J.D. Vance, who helped ambush Zelensky in the Oval Office, publicly admitted that “Russia is asking for too much” by demanding territory it doesn’t occupy.
The stage is now set for a deal, and Trump has a “neutron bomb” to hold over Putin’s head, thanks to the tariff threat. Former American Ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker said the strategy will change because it’s obvious that “Putin is not interested in peace. Buttering him up has not worked, so the message should be that the US is in for the long run and will keep supplying weapons to Ukraine… and Europe should accelerate sanctions and Ukraine’s membership in the European Union.”
Finally, Putin overplayed his hand, and Donald Trump is in a position to end Ukraine’s nightmare and bring peace to Europe.
Thank you once again. A core question left “unanswered” is why has it taken so long to and cost so much in misery to come to a conclusion that was clear and obvious when Putin first broke the Budapest deal and took Crimea…. Putin is a very bad guy creating havoc around the planet and the sooner he is completely neutered the better!!!
Everything you are writing and proposing, Diane, is right on the money. The U.S. is key.....not only because of the "punishment" it can impose, but because much of the world, including Europe, will follow suit. The "power" that is Russia will be exposed for what it is.....a heavily overrated and inflated balloon.
Consider what power Russia will have if Trump were to decide that Putin has been playing him and showing Trump up as more bark than bite. Putin's economy is the size of Brazil's and rapidly running out of everything except hot air. His conventional forces have been massively depleted in manpower and equipment since his invasion. His missile technology has barely gotten off the ground after losing Ukraine. His nuclear warheads total about 10% more than those of the U.S., but - based on the interview provided by a Ukrainian expert who has been following Russia's nuclear and ballistic capabilities - it is highly unlikely that Russia could have afforded their modernization, maintenance, and production to the extent that is needed. The U.S. has projected that its costs (for its smaller force) will average $95 billion/year over the next 10 years.......an amount that would consume over half of Russia's current defense budget. The money simply has not been there for routine inspections, major refurbishments every 20-30 years, and component testing. Its low birth rate, high mortality rate, and emigration indicate continued declines from its 144 million population, only 80% of which is ethnically Russian.
So, what, exactly, does Russia have to offer the U.S. and the world to make it so valuable as to continue having to risk so much global mayhem and instability? THAT should be Trump's immediate focus before he contemplates the benefits of "deals" with Putin.