Covid "Twindemic"

January 16, 2023

For three years COVID has afflicted the world, killed six million and upended the global economy. But the virus has not run its course, notably in China where draconian lockdown measures and a bungled vaccination roll out have left its economy in tatters and still riddled with the disease. China admits to only 5,000 deaths but that’s laughable and this month the World Health Organization accused Beijing of covering up the seriousness of its ongoing pandemic. Millions will be infected this year and China has become a “no-go” zone for tourists and business travellers. Japan and South Korea have closed their borders and so should the rest of the world. But elsewhere Covid hasn’t finished its deadly business either and surges again in places where governments took firm action, quarantined people, and executed successful mass vaccination programs. Epidemiologists claim that a Northern Hemisphere “twindemic” is underway, caused by a combination of Covid and seasonal flu as well as by flagging vigilance on the part of the public and health authorities.

Surge in US Covid cases

America’s surges could worsen because China’s vaccine delinquency amounts to a gigantic “spreading event” that once more threatens the rest of the world. “Some 900 million people in China have been infected with the coronavirus as of 11 January, according to a study by Peking University. The report estimates that 64 per cent of the country's population has the virus,” broadcasted the BBC on January 11. “China has stopped providing daily Covid statistics since abandoning zero-Covid.”

Covid’s next gigantic wave in China Airfinity predictive health analytics firm

Since 2020, 1.1 million Americans have died of the virus, but fatalities began to plummet after vaccines were invented in 2021. However, between January and November in 2022, there was a surge and more than 248,000 Americans died from “respiratory” ailments that were likely Covid. Causes were mostly catalogued as flu deaths. This led to a slowdown in Covid booster shots, as people wrongly assumed the pandemic was ending, which in turn caused more infections. Others, protected from Covid, failed to realize that this wouldn’t protect them from flu and did not obtain flu shots too which added to the numbers of afflicted. The result has been surges in both diseases which is why doctors urge people to seek protection from Covid as well as flu.

In December, the World Health Organization (WHO) wrote “while flu cases plummeted as COVID-19 cases soared early in the pandemic, coronavirus and flu cases are now both on the rise globally. In the U.S., the Center for Disease Control and Prevention reports thousands of hospitalizations and deaths from the flu and a significant rise in COVID cases and deaths through the fall and early winter.”

Another contributing factor to the rise has been the abandonment of lockdown, social distancing and other measures. Flu cases dropped after Covid was discovered only because government measures designed to limit Covid transmission also prevented flu transmission. After controls were lifted, flu roared back along with Covid and other problems. December hospitalizations for flu in the United States were the highest in a decade, as were hospitalizations involving a third respiratory illness – called RSV (respiratory syncytial virus) which afflicts youngsters and the elderly. One expert dubs this the “Tripledemic”.

There is also the problem of mutations. Covid’s latest is highly infectious and known as XBB.1.15. It was first diagnosed in October in New York City, but has now spread to 28 countries and is the most dominant virus across the U.S. Fortunately, it is not more lethal than previous incarnations, but spreads like wild fire — because fewer people wear masks or avoid large gatherings. Some hope the fact that it is “weaker” may mean Covid is “burning itself out”, as other pandemics have, and eventually become a version of the common cold or seasonal flu. However, its ability to mutate, and its continuing spread, threatens the elderly, very young, and immune-compromised unless fully protected and masked.

Unfortunately, the fact that previous pandemics have petered out is no guarantee this one will. The 1918 influenza pandemic killed an estimated 50 million people over 18 months, then disappeared as a result of mass quarantine policies. The outbreak in 2002 of SARS-CoV-1 ended within months and killed only 744 persons because it wasn’t very infectious and was eradicated by isolating patients. Covid is virally related but has been mitigated because of mRNA vaccines that were developed within months of its outbreak in late 2019. However, if unchallenged, it may kill another six million people.

“Now in a third Pandemic year, we have not reached the end. Even in China, where the pandemic began, a resurgence of the virus has posed a new threat to the nation’s attempts at containment. The early signs for a largely unvaccinated population in China are alarming,” commented healthcare website Americares.

Three years on, the pandemic still divides the world, and certain jurisdictions, into safe and unsafe zones. China is dangerous, but India is not. Within the U.S., anti-vax cultures in Red states have had 38 per cent more Covid deaths than Blue states where vaccines have been widely adopted. Likewise, differences exist demographically. Older populations fare worse than younger populations.

Covid will continue indefinitely. Masks should be essential in hospitals, theaters, airplanes, trains, airports, inadequately ventilated venues, and for anyone who is over 65. Boosters for both disease are now a must because as these viruses hang on, so must everyone’s vigilance.