Europe Should Panic

July 7, 2025

War news broke fast and furiously in recent days concerning Russia’s brutal war against Ukraine. On July 2, allies were blindsided as reports surfaced that the US had paused the delivery of certain air defense missiles and munitions to Ukraine—a unilateral step taken by U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth for the third time. He had paused some shipments in January and February due to concern about potential shortages, but his actions were reversed a few days later. Not this time. Besides, President Donald Trump said no weapons had been withheld and then announced, after a call with Vladimir Putin, that he could not end the war because Putin “won’t stop”. He hinted at sanctions but hasn’t imposed any since assuming office. Not surprisingly, the next day, Russia unleashed its most significant air attack to date against Ukraine, then Germany’s leader called Trump and offered to buy Patriot air defense systems on behalf of Ukraine. Wrote historian Anne Applebaum: “Putin, who might otherwise have been running into real trouble right now, in his third year of an unsuccessful and costly conflict, has been encouraged and inspired to keep going. Trump has given him and his war a new lease on life.”

Russians now ring the Euro border and patrol its seas and skies.

Trump has pushed NATO members into pledging more for Europe’s defense, but his effort to end the war has failed because there have been no substantive talks, nor has there been sufficient pressure on Russia to cooperate. No sanctions of any consequence have been imposed, and no additional firepower has been provided to Ukraine. Instead, Trump’s hand-picked Defense Secretary paused weapons, which placed more pressure on Ukraine, not Russia. Worse, Europe continues to subsidize Putin’s war. The E.U.’s imports of Russian fossil fuels in 2024 totaled $23 billion, surpassing the $19 billion in financial aid it provided to Ukraine. A European ban on Russian oil and gas imports is not planned until the end of 2027.

Europeans should be panicking. After the weapons pause snafu, The Economist warned: “It seems clear that American support for Ukraine is ebbing. Mr. Trump has not made any new commitments of weapons to help it since his return to office in January (tens of billions of dollars authorized by Congress last year remain uncommitted). Nor has the Republican-dominated Congress allocated new funds. Officials said the already small amounts for Ukraine in the regular Pentagon budget would be cut further under the budget request for fiscal year 2026, though they gave no details. The administration is allowing the supplemental funds approved by Congress last year, and the pipeline of arms pumped up at the end of Joe Biden’s term, to drain away without replenishment.”

Putin has already victimized Europe, but it hasn't fought back. For years, it has been battered by hybrid warfare in the form of sabotage, espionage, disinformation, and cyberattacks — and now, outright war is getting closer. Another concern is that few are paying attention to the fact that Putin has doubled his budget every year on “informational warfare” and is building a sizeable “fifth column” of supporters inside Europe who migrated from Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. Russia Today and other Moscow muckraking outlets broadcast across Europe and throughout the Global South. The result is that migrants who come to Europe have access and enjoy watching pro-Russian journalists “spouting off against America and centuries of subjugation as a result of Western or European `colonization’.”

Putin now positions his army along Europe’s borders and builds military infrastructure in those regions. Border countries scramble to fortify, and there is speculation that to test NATO’s one-for-all-and-all-for-one commitment, Putin may seize a slice of tiny Estonia or elsewhere. With a population of 1.5 million, comparable in size to Vermont and New Hampshire, it has already suffered major cyberattacks and was recently disconnected from Europe and the Internet when its telecom cables in the Baltic Sea were sabotaged. “Estonia knows NATO won’t fight for them or the Baltics; not worth it for Germany, the UK, and France to get involved,” commented an Eastern European strategist.

Pink occupied, red embattled as of July 2025

Europeans have also suffered from increasing Russian attacks on critical undersea infrastructure in the past year, notably in the Baltic Sea. Beneath the seas are cables and pipelines vital to everyday life, ensuring the lights stay on and bank payments are processed. Roughly 1.3 million kilometers of cables—equivalent to about 800,000 miles—are used for $10 trillion in financial transactions each day, NATO chief Mark Rutte estimated in January 2025. Undersea cables carry more than 95 percent of all internet traffic. In recent weeks, the Eagle S, a Cook Islands-flagged oil tanker believed to be part of Russia's "shadow fleet" of vessels used to circumvent sanctions, was accused of sabotaging undersea cables and communication lines. These hundreds of tankers, plus increasing numbers of Russian warships, spy planes, and shadow fleet tankers, currently ply Europe’s seas and skies.

Finally, this year, NATO members began to increase defense spending, and Germany has stepped up to protect Ukraine’s skies. Besides, Europe’s two nuclear powers, the UK and Britain, are talking about nuclearizing all of Europe. Still, by the time this is completed, the Baltic Sea region may already be under Russian control. Another new alarm has been raised across Europe following revelations that the extensive acreage of Chinese-made solar panels on the continent may be shut down remotely by Beijing. This increases the likelihood of significant power outages in Spain, Portugal, and France in the event of a war.

Only one military man (who was fired by Trump) believes that Putin’s attempt to “play” Trump may end up backfiring. Former Trump national security advisor and career military official, retired General H.R. McMaster, said in a recent interview that Russia’s economic problems will sink its war machine and that "I don’t think he can play Donald Trump. You saw what happened with the Iranians. He gave them 60 days, right? And they went to 61, and he acted."

But Trump wimps out when it comes to Putin. In May, he imposed a two-week ceasefire deadline on Putin, which has since blown past. Putin has outplayed Trump by prolonging negotiations, stoking divisions among NATO, and diverting Pentagon attention toward Iran and China, which Trump considers more important geopolitical challenges. Putin also entices Trump with the notion of establishing a bilateral trading relationship as a means of avoiding draconian sanctions that could sink his economy. Finally, Trump says that Putin won’t stop, but he hasn’t demanded that he do so either.

Fortunately, Ukraine has developed a sizeable defense industry and caused massive damage to Russia’s army on the ground and to facilities deep inside the country. But Putin realizes that Ukraine’s unprotected skies are the key to victory, and whoever runs out of ammo first loses. So he strings Trump along about negotiations as he dramatically escalates missile and drone attacks against Ukraine to use up all its available air defense systems and missiles.

Europe, meanwhile, lags due to bureaucracy, domestic politics, and indifference from countries farthest from its eastern border. And Americans elected a President who promised to stop the war quickly and has been, strategically and diplomatically speaking, clueless. He prefers “12-day” wars, as happened with Iran, but the difference is that Europe is not Israel, which has a world-class military and top-notch strategists.

America’s stature and standing diminish daily. “Trump’s advisers may call it ‘peace through strength,’ but what we are witnessing is paralysis through posturing,” wrote Al Jazeera in early June. “Russia’s delegation in Istanbul was never a step towards resolution – it was a diplomatic decoy, shielding a brutal military advance. If Trump refuses to back a serious escalation in pressure on Moscow – through expanded sanctions and renewed military aid to Kyiv – he won’t just fail to end the war. He will become complicit in prolonging it.”

On July 7, The Wall Street Journal came out strongly, saying Putin was stringing along Trump. “Mr. Trump has ready options. One is to restore the weapons deliveries already promised to Ukraine and begin to work with Congress on sending more. Another is to declare his support for the Lindsey Graham-Richard Blumenthal bill that would impose sanctions on countries that buy Russian oil and don’t aid Ukraine. It has 84 co-sponsors, and the Senate could send a message by voting this week.”

If not, America will face new challengers. “Mr. Putin thinks he can make President Trump look plaintive and weak and then get away with it as Russia swallows Ukraine. If the Russian is right, much of the U.S. deterrence benefit of the Iran strike will vanish.”