Europe's Final Fate
July 18, 2024
This fall, Americans will choose an internationalist or an isolationist to become their President. But the future of Europe, the outcome of the war in Ukraine, the global economy, and current world order are also on the ballot. If Trump the isolationist is elected, he may withdraw or dramatically reduce contributions to NATO which would force Europe to quickly build a bigger military force and finance Ukraine indefinitely in its struggle to fend off Russia’s westward march. America’s isolationism ended in the 20th century when Washington volunteered to save Europe twice. After 1945, America helped the continent transform itself from a sea of rubble and a perennial slaughterhouse into dozens of prosperous and peaceful democracies. The European Union (EU) and NATO were created. But today, Americans are weary of global policing. There’s no end in sight for the Ukrainian war and EU’s 27 members could be left holding the bag for all of it. Faced with this possibility, European financial markets fall while the U.S. dollar and gold prices increase. There is also political hand-wringing across the continent, but Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte recently chided Europe’s leaders about their complaints: “We should stop moaning and whining and nagging about Trump. Let’s stop doing that. It's up to the Americans. I'm not an American, I cannot vote in the U.S. We have to work with whoever is on the dance floor."