It’s War Already, Europe

September 21, 2026

Russia is at war with Europe, but Europeans and NATO leaders use the euphemism “hybrid warfare” because Moscow’s attacks are surreptitious and not executed by uniformed soldiers or tanks. But its assaults are lethal and include criminality, cyberattacks, assassination, blackmail, terrorism, disinformation, and corruption. Russian drones damage defense factories, Europe’s infrastructure, political systems, media, undersea cables, trains, and economies. Europeans, traumatized by two world wars, refuse to dub this “war,” much less World War 3, which it is. Unfortunately, calling a war something other than what it is has perpetuated public ignorance, led to military procrastination, and given Vladimir Putin free rein to define the battlefield. For instance, Germany waited nearly a month before publicly blaming Russia for an August 4 drone attack at Leipzig/Halle Airport. The drone failed to detonate but would have caused a catastrophe, and yet German authorities dithered, eventually announced Russian involvement, then meted out meek retaliation. Such excessive caution undermines deterrence. As a German critic noted: “The government must finally stop being hesitant, reticent and timid. Things must be called by their name, and decisive action taken.”

Attacks in the past few weeks

Putin's shadow war has been underway for years because he knows he cannot win a conventional war against NATO. Instead, he chips away at Europe with a cheaper, cleverer strategy. Every violent incident is ambiguous enough that governments debate who the culprit is and whether to escalate, rather than calling out the perpetrator and retaliating. Put another way, Europe investigates, NATO condemns, then Moscow denies. Repeat and recycle and repeat. The Leipzig Airport incident illustrates the problem.

Putin also plays NATO members for fools, and they allow it. He’s found the loophole in its Article 5 commitment, which dictates that an attack against one is considered an attack against all. But nothing happens when the victim nation refuses to invoke Article 5 or when there are 200 small attacks against this or that member, if a railway is blown up by a proxy, or a computer system is hacked by unknown entities. What’s the threshold? What about the public’s right to know? Unfortunately, the facts are that Putin’s “hybrid attacks” cumulatively add up to war against NATO and Europe. But nobody has the guts to admit this or do something about it. Putin knows this, and Europe’s chronic timidity emboldens him.

The Institute for the Study of War argues that Russia’s activities are not a collection of isolated provocations. It describes a “war” of coordinated Russian kinetic and non-kinetic campaigns against military and civilian targets in Europe. It also adds that there are “cognitive warfare” techniques underway that include disinformation, manipulation of emotions, stunts, use of social media, as well as the steady stoking of regional, cultural, ethnic, and religious divisions and grievances to weaken Europe. The Russian objectives are to make Europeans distrust their governments and one another, to create resentment about the cost of helping Ukraine, and to convince them that accommodating Moscow is preferable to resisting it. It’s a cheap way to undermine an adversary: A troll farm costs considerably less than a tank division.

Existing grievances over immigration, inflation, energy prices, Ukraine, and national identities are magnified by Russian trolls and spill over into political disagreement and social distrust. Europe is an easy target because it’s already heavily divided and complex. For instance, the legalities surrounding the confiscation of Russia’s sovereign reserves have become controversial even though they shouldn’t be, given Russia’s attacks on Europe and its hideous murder of Ukrainian civilians and destruction of their assets and infrastructure.

Putin’s methods are essential because Russia cannot afford a conventional war against NATO. NATO’s combined economy dwarfs Russia’s. Its military resources are potentially overwhelming. But Europe’s weakness is not military. It is psychological. Europe is vastly wealthier than Russia. It has more people, larger industrial resources, sophisticated militaries, and, through NATO, access to overwhelming collective power. European countries have also changed considerably since 2022. Defense spending has risen, weapons production is expanding, Poland and the Baltic countries have strengthened their defenses, Germany has assumed a larger military role, and Europe now carries much more of the burden of supporting Ukraine. In essence, Europe has all the cards, but must get its act together.

Putin’s response in 2026 when asked if he was at war with Europe/NATO

This reality is that Europe’s endless use of the word “hybrid” is debilitating and dangerous and just an excuse. Putin understands this perfectly. His objective is not to defeat NATO’s armies because he knows he cannot. It is to weaken the political cohesion that makes Europe formidable. The result is that Europe keeps asking how it can prevent a future war with Russia, but that is the wrong question. The real question is how Europe intends to respond aggressively to the war already being conducted against it. Russian tanks may not have crossed the border, but the war has already started.

Russia also intimidates by constantly warning about nuclear escalation. Moscow attacks, probes, or damages Europe, then warns Europeans that responding might start a war. It’s psychological judo, Putin’s favorite sport. He has also weaponized energy, trade, grain, and migration against Europe. For example, he now indirectly attacks Europe by bombing Ukraine’s ports and grain terminals, which supply Africa and the Middle East. This will increase food prices in poor countries, create political instability, and result in displaced persons migrating to Europe. Migration issues worry Europeans, and should. Russian propagandists encourage migration, as they did recently in Spain when 72,000 young men swam to its enclave, Ceuta.

However, the American public, through its Congress, has handed President Trump a “sledgehammer” to stop Putin in the form of draconian sanctions against its oil industry, shadow fleet, its allies, and customers. Europe must now step up. All Russians or their corporations should be banned from entering Europe; their assets should be confiscated and given to Ukraine’s war effort; Europe must militarize more quickly and extend the nuclear umbrella of France and the UK over the continent; Europeans must seize Russia’s shadow fleet of oil tankers as they ply its Baltic and Black Seas; and they must match America’s sanctions on Russia’s customers and suppliers such as China, India, Turkey, Iran, or European regimes such as Hungary and Slovakia. As Kaja Kallas, EU foreign policy chief, said: “Russia is not a problem for some of us but for all of us. Europeans need to wake up. Weakness invites them in.”

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