On August 25, CIA Director John Ratcliffe flew secretly to Moscow to deliver a message to Putin’s spymaster that Russia cannot win its war against Ukraine and to warn him against targeting any NATO nation. Tellingly, Ukraine was tipped off about the meeting and held off bombing the city while he was there. Ratcliffe’s message was blunt: That Russia has gained only 1% of Ukraine’s territory in 18 months and the estimated life expectancy of a newly arrived Russian recruit on the active front lines is roughly 20 to 30 minutes. Then, six days later on August 31, Trump invited Russia’s Finance Minister Anton Siluanov to join the US-hosted G20 talks, where US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent took him aside to emphasize that Russia’s war needs to end. The moves were part of a good-cop-bad-cop strategy aimed at preventing an increasingly desperate Putin from lashing out more dangerously because he is trapped.
A cornered Putin is dangerous. He is under pressure to show Russians that their sacrifices produced something more than capturing a few Ukrainian villages. He believes that attacking NATO would transform a military loss into a historic geopolitical victory by further dividing an already disunited Europe. After all, he has always blamed NATO for his war with Kyiv and, besides, Russia has been conducting “hybrid” attacks on Europe that NATO members are reluctant to label as assaults to avoid invoking Article 5 retaliation. For instance, it took weeks before Germany blamed Russia for a failed drone attack at Leipzig Airport. Russia’s embassy in Bonn was closed as a result, and Putin merely dismissed the accusations as fake. Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, went further and responded by threatening to strike Berlin for making baseless accusations, branding Germany's current government "neo-Nazi and rabidly Russophobic."
Ratcliffe’s trip to Moscow was downplayed by Trump when it hit the press, and he publicly insisted that he did not believe that Putin would attack NATO. But US intelligence believes otherwise. There are plans in place and “test” attacks continue in Europe as Russia’s situation deteriorates on the battlefield and at home due to Ukrainian drone and missile attacks. In recent weeks, Russian cruise missiles have landed in Poland and drones in Romania, allegedly accidentally and without much fuss. Putin may calculate that now’s the time to escalate because of NATO’s disarray and because of the shortfall in critical Western munitions, due to Ukraine and the Iran wars.
Meanwhile, Ukraine claims that Putin plans to send 400,000 more troops to Ukraine and has dramatically stepped up attacks on Ukrainian cities and civilians. The speculation is that he may seize territory in Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania to test whether Western Europe would take up arms to protect Eastern Europe. If they don’t, NATO is fractured. Worse, some believe that Putin cannot stop his war because he believes ending it without capturing at least all of the Donbas could threaten his survival. The Kyiv Post recently reported: “One source said Putin believes ending the war without capturing at least all of the Donbas could threaten his survival. ‘They will hang me,’ he reportedly told people close to him.”
US officials believe that Putin, squeezed in Ukraine and under pressure at home, is planning to launch an assault ranging from a major cyberattack to a small-scale land incursion, likely on a Baltic nation, according to The Wall Street Journal. Ratcliffe reportedly and pre-emptively warned the Russian official that retaliation would immediately follow any attack, even if an accident or a lone-wolf event. He bluntly emphasized to the Russian official that whatever happens in Ukraine, do not widen the war.
Theoretically, a massive cyberattack could shut down a Baltic electrical grid. Armed men could seize a small installation. A missile could strike NATO territory, and Moscow could claim it was due to a navigational error. Russian saboteurs could continue to destroy major railways, factories, or undersea cables. Drones could penetrate allied airspace, and the Kremlin would deny responsibility and shut down any United Nations Security Council action. If that happens, Putin would call these “wins”.
Meanwhile, the West must get its act together. Would every NATO country concur that an “armed attack” had occurred? Would any invoke Article 5? Would Europeans risk war with a nuclear power over an ambiguous incident in a small Baltic state? Would the alliance respond immediately or, as usual, convene meetings, request evidence and argue for weeks over consequences? That hesitation alone would constitute victory for Putin.
Clearly, NATO must bolster its deterrence. Send more weapons to Ukraine, tighten oil sanctions, pressure Russia’s trading partners, reinforce Baltic defenses and install automatic NATO responses to cyberattacks, sabotage and territorial incursions. Europe must also fortify factories, ports, cables and railways from Russian terrorism. And Trump and his Republicans in America’s House of Representatives must pass the sanctions against Russia’s trading partners proposed by the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, which the Senate has already approved and are stalled.
In December, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned that Russia could be ready to use major military force against NATO within five years and will increase its hybrid war. Unfortunately, NATO is a defensive alliance that will protect its territory but will never attack. Fortunately, Trump has forced members to support Ukraine’s war effort and remilitarize. But Russia’s flagging war, and the cornered rat in the Kremlin, presents a new threat and is why he sent Ratcliffe to threaten Russia to stand down from escalation.
Unfortunately, Putin listens to no one, not even China, which is against a European war, nor India, which recently asked Putin publicly to stop his “endless war” in Ukraine. This is why Ukraine takes nothing for granted. The threat of a new Russian offensive or involvement by Belarus in a northern invasion targeting Kyiv means the war will continue this winter. Another 30,000 troops will be conscripted, and Ukraine will continue to pound Russia’s industrial and energy sectors.
The good news was that Trump dispatched Ratcliffe to Moscow because Ukraine is defeating Russia. But the bad news is that the last CIA director to fly to Moscow on such a mission was William Burns in November 2021. He warned Putin not to invade Ukraine. Putin invaded three months later.
Another excellent post. Thank you
And no Brutus in sight.