Putin's Poodle

April 14, 2025

Donald Trump took a wrecking ball to the global trading system last week, then bragged that world leaders were “kissing my ass” to negotiate relief from his tariffs by offering concessions. But it’s amusing to note that a man who considers himself a master negotiator and disruptor has totally wimped out when it comes to dealing with and disciplining Vladimir Putin, the world’s reigning mass murderer and psychopath. The Russian leader has outplayed the American President, who bragged before his election that he could end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours and still has not. Putin has not only refused to “kiss his ass” but makes a mockery of the process by moving goalposts, lying, and breaking cease-fire pledges shamelessly. On March 30, Trump finally said he was “angry” with Putin for murdering Ukrainian civilians, but five days later, Russian missiles and drones targeted a neighborhood playground, killing 19 children and injuring 74. In response, Trump said: “We are talking to Russia, we would like them to stop.” Then, on April 2, he announced his global tariff scheme, slapped Ukraine with tariffs, and exempted Russia.

Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky on X about Russia’s bombing: "Firing a missile at a children's playground—this is not war, this is barbarism."

The combination of Trump’s negotiating timidity and tacit acceptance of Russia’s ongoing atrocities is astonishing when contrasted with his bullyboy tariffs or threats against benign and friendly regimes such as Canada, Greenland, Panama, Sri Lanka, and countless others. France’s Le Monde editorial writers have nicknamed Putin’s gamesmanship the “yes…but” ploy. On March 11, for instance, it quoted Putin’s response to initial cease-fire recommendations: “`We are also in favour of it, but there are nuances,’ warned the Russian president, saying he wanted to ‘talk them over’ with the Americans and ‘perhaps have a telephone conversation with President Trump’.” They spoke and Putin thanked Trump for his efforts, then emphasized again that he still had ‘serious issues’.”

The technique is: Verbalize agreement or assent, then impose unattainable preconditions. When Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, went to Moscow, press reports were that the Kremlin was “cautiously optimistic” after he met with Putin. But the direct message from Moscow delivered to Trump raised questions such as “how can we be guaranteed that nothing like this [the conflict] will happen,” despite the fact that the conflict was entirely due to Putin’s unprovoked invasion in February 2022. The dictator also questioned whether a truce could be maintained along the 2,000-kilometer battleline, objected to the placement of European peacekeeping forces, then said a delay was necessary and “developments on the ground” would determine his decision. A day later, Putin was filmed in military fatigues in Kursk as Russian forces advanced to repel Ukrainians from part of the region, calling for its “complete liberation”. His decision and priority is to fight, not to make a truce.

It was simply another example of bad faith bargaining and the reality that Putin has no intention of stopping the war. He only participates in “negotiations” in order to showcase his importance as a head of state and his equivalence to Donald Trump. This has worked, and his early acts designed to humiliate the Americans at the table have become bolder. He now wants total victory: Ukraine must drop demands to regain lost territory, must renounce NATO membership, must demilitarize and remain neutral in the future; and Washington must lift sanctions and pay for all the costs to rebuild the portion of Ukraine that he has destroyed.

According to former Russian diplomat Boris Bondarev, this outcome was predictable because “Trump wants to end the war quickly by giving Putin what he wants.” He added that “but Trump and his closest associates have no idea what Putin is like,” and warned that Putin would agree to a cease-fire to rearm and resume the fighting. “Only a total and clear defeat that is obvious to everyone will teach them.”

Deutsche-Welle cartoon

Equally foolish are Trump’s attempts to butter up and please Putin, including his decision to exempt Russia from tariffs while hitting war-torn Ukraine with them. He includes other favors such as whitewashing the United Nations condemnation of the invasion of Ukraine, as well as scrapping Washington’s agency that helps identify and locate the tens of thousands of Ukrainian children that have been kidnapped. Then this week, Washington did not condemn or even name Russia as the perpetrator of the playground massacre, much less impose sanctions or demand a response. “There could already be a ceasefire if there was real pressure on Russia," said Zelensky weeks ago.

America has not criticized the Kremlin’s unacceptable counteroffers or dismissed its lame excuses. For instance, Moscow and Kyiv agreed to the concept of a Black Sea truce, then Russia said the deal could not go forward until Ukraine's allies lifted certain sanctions – allies who are not even invited to sit at the negotiating table. Trump has also failed to follow up on threats that he has made to the press. He told NBC: “If you buy oil from Russia, you can't do business in the United States,” then added without details that “there will be a 25 percent tariff on all [Russian] oil, a 25 to 50 percent tariff on all oil.”

Then nothing happened. In other words, Trump has given Putin absolutely no incentive to negotiate in good faith, by offering only carrots and no sticks. He’s called Putin “smart” and pulled his punches on sanctions. His negotiator, Howard Witcoff, mused publicly about capitulating to Putin by letting him keep everything he’s stolen. The result is that Putin has “few motivations” to discuss peace talks. In fact, Trump has actually provided incentives for Putin to continue the war, commit atrocities, and embarrass America and the West. Bondarev says Putin has been allowed to completely “weaponize” the negotiations.

Putin doesn’t want peace with Ukraine—he never did. And the killing continues. But, fortunately, Trump’s tariff war against his trading partners has yielded an intended side effect that may threaten Putin and his regime. The tariff shakeup has caused oil prices to fall, which, if continued, could crash Russia’s economy and deprive Putin’s war machine of revenues to wage war in Ukraine and around the world. But right now, as the Republican New York Post editorial wrote: “To make peace, Trump is going to have to show Putin more strength.”