Russia is Collapsing
November 13, 2025
What follows is a 28-minute podcast I did on November 12 with The Times in Britain about Russia's economic meltdown, its war, and Ukraine’s strategy and political situation. Double-click to watch the conversation, and a summary of highlights is listed below.
The salient developments:
Russia’s oil revenues are down 27% due to the effectiveness of sanctions and intense bombing by Ukraine of its refineries and other oil facilities. Petroleum exports finance the war. Ukraine has also embarked on an intense and successful aerial war targeting Russia’s electrical grid.
Russia has had to dip into its National Welfare Fund to finance the conflict. In 2022, this “national piggy bank” totalled $100 billion and is down to $34 billion. Russia has also lost access to its $300 billion in foreign-exchange earnings, which were frozen after its 2022 invasion. Allies are close to agreeing to transfer these funds to Ukraine to help rebuild the country.
Russia is on the ropes and now being gouged by suppliers, at home and abroad. The cost it pays for essential components or weapons has risen by 30% to 80%, according to reports. Also, its oil customers are driving harder bargains by paying dramatically less for Russian oil.
Russia is so cash-strapped that it has requested advance payment at deep discounts from China for oil and LNG.
Russia’s VAT taxes soar to 22% along with inflation.
Russian rail freight—an index of manufacturing health—has collapsed, and Reuters reports major factories have furloughed workers to save wages. Twenty of its 24 key industries are in simultaneous decline.
On October 14, President Donald Trump predicted that Russia would economically collapse this year or next.
Russian opposition politician and chessmaster, Garry Kasparov, said Russian GDP figures are a “mirage” and that Moscow is a “Potemkin Powerhouse”.
Concise and bracing report. Love me a good David & Goliath story, especially when David is a democratic people and Goliath is Vladimir Putin. May the people of Russia dance on his grave and elect someone more honest and caring to help them navigate an intelligent future course.
Diane,
Lest we forget, ever since the Mongols invaded Russia various countries and leaders have been dead wrong about Russia. For example, Napoleon, the Kaiser and Hitler got it wrong ( like the “ experts “ that got it wrong on Afghanistan and Vietnam ).
There is no doubt that Russia is facing severe difficulties and needs to settle its Ukraine folly. However, long ago Metternich said : Russia is never as strong as she looks and she is never as weak as she looks.
Even if we believe everything that you have written, with friends like China, Iran and various countries elsewhere, is Russia about to collapse ?
For years I have read or been told that its demise was inevitable and imminent.