Ukr is 'no man's fool' & will become so technically strong, many countries will adopt & adapt their weaponizing arsenal strategy in Ukr's image. Relying on 'wishy washy tRUMP' is no longer an option. Better to depend on yourself than on American support.
Yup. The last time I looked, lead time in N America for delivery of even those basic pole-mount distribution transformers was five months to a year; for large, transmission system substation units it was from two years to never*. Causing a ground fault short in a transformer will arc the whole thing into unusable scrap, and you're correct: the resulting load imbalance cascades almost instantly to overloads in every connected circuit. Generators that were running under load can, if not disconnected in seconds, freewheel, overspeed, or slam up against an impossible load and self-destruct in either case. There aren't anywhere near enough trailer-hauled Cat diesel units to fill those gaps HERE. Imagine far less resilience in Russia. An entire region or economy can revert to the 19th century in minutes. And then there's the knock on effects from water systems exposed to sub-freezing temps.
This is a good time to consider one's supply of lamp kerosene and fuel for your Coleman camp stove...
Tim Long, Just Up the Hill from Lock 15.
*the 'rationalization', during the last fifty years, of operations that turned out all this heavy equipment into fewer and fewer manufacturers has exacerbated this diminished resiliency, to the benefit of monopoly power and 'shareholder benefit'.
Who would have guessed 3 years ago that Russia would be that technologically vulnerable? Freezing in the dark now becomes a sign of hope for Ukraine? Electricity is the key to the future.
Thank you, Ukraine has become so resourceful and resilient, Zelenskyy and his team have proven they are worthy opponents. Let's hope Russia freezes in the dark. This WAR must end soon. As one of our colleagues mentioned below, relying on tRUMP is a fool's game.
Ukraine knows their enemy better than anyone. Russian ideology: Lie, Deny, and Steal., their best weapon being the warfare propaganda, unfortunately AI and tech, exponentially has accelerated their reach. I blame Putin for flooding social media to benefit Trump, and now we are stuck with him and his lies and corruption.
China will blindside Russia because they are more pragmatic and productive - Diane, like your example of Manchuria carved in half. The Chinese side is prosperous and productive; the Russian side is drunk half the time and lives in squalor. I believe you are right, China will take its territory back, in the meantime, Russia will be "the fall guy" for the war, a great distraction in Europe and Ukraine- perhaps Venezuela also, not to mention the Sahel and Middle East. It allows China to watch and build its massive army and plot the Taiwan invasion.
Ukraine will be the powerhouse of Europe in defense production, post war, which I hope comes soon for them. They will never surrender to Russia, nor should they. Russia doesn't offer peace, it offers death. Tomahawks would be nice touch if they were employed, to the Yamal Cross in Siberia, perhaps?
It is quite obvious to me that in this war Russia is more vulnerable than Ukraine and Ukraine has achieved the capabilities to exploit that weakness of Russia.
Typically a more powerful nation, Russia is more or less has more means to protect its war machine I.e. the industrial complex from enemy. Russia had made a mistake forgetting that their war machine could be very vulnerable to aerial attacks from drones and missiles, a mistake will probably be studied for years to come.
On the other hand, Ukraine does not have much of a war machine so Russia could not target that.
Russia did not anticipate the ability of Ukrainian to produce long range missiles such as Neptune, Flamingo and what else in the time span of only three years, besides long range drones.
These aerial weapons from Ukraine are paralyzingly Russia right now. You suddenly do not hear about tanks, artillery and armor vehicles on the battle fields of Ukraine anymore.
To me, Pokrovsk, Kupiansk and other battles are not that important. They can be talking points but what decides the war outcome is who can sustain their war machine better relative to the other.
The introduction of aerial attacks by drones and missiles was an element of surprise that changes the balance.
And Ukraine has the upper hands precisely because Russia has bigger war machine.
Ukr is 'no man's fool' & will become so technically strong, many countries will adopt & adapt their weaponizing arsenal strategy in Ukr's image. Relying on 'wishy washy tRUMP' is no longer an option. Better to depend on yourself than on American support.
Yup. The last time I looked, lead time in N America for delivery of even those basic pole-mount distribution transformers was five months to a year; for large, transmission system substation units it was from two years to never*. Causing a ground fault short in a transformer will arc the whole thing into unusable scrap, and you're correct: the resulting load imbalance cascades almost instantly to overloads in every connected circuit. Generators that were running under load can, if not disconnected in seconds, freewheel, overspeed, or slam up against an impossible load and self-destruct in either case. There aren't anywhere near enough trailer-hauled Cat diesel units to fill those gaps HERE. Imagine far less resilience in Russia. An entire region or economy can revert to the 19th century in minutes. And then there's the knock on effects from water systems exposed to sub-freezing temps.
This is a good time to consider one's supply of lamp kerosene and fuel for your Coleman camp stove...
Tim Long, Just Up the Hill from Lock 15.
*the 'rationalization', during the last fifty years, of operations that turned out all this heavy equipment into fewer and fewer manufacturers has exacerbated this diminished resiliency, to the benefit of monopoly power and 'shareholder benefit'.
Who would have guessed 3 years ago that Russia would be that technologically vulnerable? Freezing in the dark now becomes a sign of hope for Ukraine? Electricity is the key to the future.
Thanks for this excellent analysis. Given what is going on around Pokrovsk it is heartening.
Thank you, Ukraine has become so resourceful and resilient, Zelenskyy and his team have proven they are worthy opponents. Let's hope Russia freezes in the dark. This WAR must end soon. As one of our colleagues mentioned below, relying on tRUMP is a fool's game.
Very informative, thank you.
Ukraine knows their enemy better than anyone. Russian ideology: Lie, Deny, and Steal., their best weapon being the warfare propaganda, unfortunately AI and tech, exponentially has accelerated their reach. I blame Putin for flooding social media to benefit Trump, and now we are stuck with him and his lies and corruption.
China will blindside Russia because they are more pragmatic and productive - Diane, like your example of Manchuria carved in half. The Chinese side is prosperous and productive; the Russian side is drunk half the time and lives in squalor. I believe you are right, China will take its territory back, in the meantime, Russia will be "the fall guy" for the war, a great distraction in Europe and Ukraine- perhaps Venezuela also, not to mention the Sahel and Middle East. It allows China to watch and build its massive army and plot the Taiwan invasion.
Ukraine will be the powerhouse of Europe in defense production, post war, which I hope comes soon for them. They will never surrender to Russia, nor should they. Russia doesn't offer peace, it offers death. Tomahawks would be nice touch if they were employed, to the Yamal Cross in Siberia, perhaps?
While Trump dithers, Russia slithers and Ukraine delivers. I know, bad poetry.
It is quite obvious to me that in this war Russia is more vulnerable than Ukraine and Ukraine has achieved the capabilities to exploit that weakness of Russia.
Typically a more powerful nation, Russia is more or less has more means to protect its war machine I.e. the industrial complex from enemy. Russia had made a mistake forgetting that their war machine could be very vulnerable to aerial attacks from drones and missiles, a mistake will probably be studied for years to come.
On the other hand, Ukraine does not have much of a war machine so Russia could not target that.
Russia did not anticipate the ability of Ukrainian to produce long range missiles such as Neptune, Flamingo and what else in the time span of only three years, besides long range drones.
These aerial weapons from Ukraine are paralyzingly Russia right now. You suddenly do not hear about tanks, artillery and armor vehicles on the battle fields of Ukraine anymore.
To me, Pokrovsk, Kupiansk and other battles are not that important. They can be talking points but what decides the war outcome is who can sustain their war machine better relative to the other.
The introduction of aerial attacks by drones and missiles was an element of surprise that changes the balance.
And Ukraine has the upper hands precisely because Russia has bigger war machine.