The Nancy Nothingburger
August 8, 2022
Poking the bear is never a good idea, but for some reason the third most powerful politician in America, Nancy Pelosi, did just that concerning China and in spite of warnings and advice. Her “poke” consisted of a 19-hour touchdown and meet-and-greet with Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen and its Parliament. China fumed, canceled climate change talks with America, and lobbed missiles and bombs around the region, explicitly designed to miss real targets. It was a show of force, not the real thing, on the part of both China and Pelosi, but was useful and instructive for two reasons: It will frighten Asian countries into greater military preparedness, notably Japan and South Korea; and China’s symbolic muscle-flexing to protest Pelosi’s visit demonstrates that, thankfully, China is strong but not run by a homicidal maniac like Putin.
But there was much ado about nothing and the political noise was considerable before, during, and after Pelosi’s token tear through a few Asian nations in a few days. Chinese news reported that President Xi Jinping warned President Joe Biden against her visit and said “whoever plays with fire will get burnt”. After her journey, Putin ally, Aleksey Zhuravlyov, said on Russian state television it would have been “good” if China had shot down her plane because it would have opened up a “second front” in Putin’s war against the West. But China remains astutely on the sidelines.
Naturally, precautions were taken. On August 2, a replica decoy aircraft without Pelosi left Kuala Lumpur Malaysia hours before she left in another aircraft for Taipei. Her plane followed a circuitous route to avoid Chinese airspace and she was greeted as a heroine around midnight then stayed only 19 hours. Next she flew to Tokyo to a warm reception and then Seoul South Korea where its President snubbed her, amid security concerns. Back home, the trip was a political win. She received applause from GOP members of the House of Representatives and Mike Pompeo, a Republican Presidential hopeful and Trump Secretary of State, offered to accompany her to Taiwan, to cash in on the favorable publicity. She declined. She didn’t need his help.
But China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi said bluntly: “Some U.S. politicians only care about their self-interests, blatantly play with fire on the Taiwan question, make themselves enemies of the 1.4 billion Chinese people, and will definitely end up in no good place.” Before she went, America’s normally circumspect Wall Street Journal published an excerpt from a book claiming an invasion of Taiwan is now guaranteed unless the U.S. and its allies prepare militarily. It concluded that “Chinese leaders want to absorb Taiwan, make the Western Pacific a Chinese lake and carve out a vast economic empire across the global south—all part of the `national rejuvenation’ that will return China to its former place as the most powerful country on Earth.”
In addition, the normally well-reasoned New York Times’ columnist Tom Friedland waded in with an hysterical screed headlined “Why Pelosi’s Visit to Taiwan Is Utterly Reckless”. He then rhetorically sped from ground zero to World War III: “A lot of bad things could happen. These include a Chinese military response that could result in the U.S. being plunged into indirect conflicts with a nuclear-armed Russia and a nuclear-armed China at the same time. And if you think our European allies — who are facing an existential war with Russia over Ukraine — will join us if there is U.S. conflict with China over Taiwan, triggered by this unnecessary visit, you are badly misreading the world.”
China’s “retaliation” consisted of staging its largest-ever military exercises encircling Taiwan — a practice run which had already been planned before her visit. America, Europe and Japan criticized these maneuvers while Chinese military experts emphasized that these drills simulate a blockade and possible future invasion of the island-state. This has also happened before but missiles were launched directly over Taiwan for the first time. Then China canceled climate change talks with Washington and sanctioned Pelosi and her family, purely symbolic gestures. The White House response was to summon China’s ambassador for a diplomatic dressing down. Now a reset is in order.
China could not ignore Pelosi’s “stunt”, given the media attention, but it provided a distraction and opportunity for President Xi to flex nationalist muscles before he faces re-election this fall. This is why the rhetoric in China’s official mouthpiece, The Global Times, was timid and not threatening. It suggested, without basis, that Pelosi obtained limited endorsements from allies “proving one-China principle is a strong international consensus”. Then a conciliatory piece followed, stating that China’s post-Pelosi retaliatory measure of “halting climate talks with US won’t hinder China’s contribution in addressing global issue”.
Asian nations covered events closely. The Hindustan Times carried an intelligent analysis by Prashant Jha that described the nuances of American politics. “No U.S. politician can be seen as weak on China. Beijing has its lobbyists, business chambers, and John Kerry-type single-issue advocates backing a reset in DC. But on the street, China is seen as having stolen jobs, exporting the virus, behaving badly, and posing a real threat. Neither the Republicans nor the Democrats, neither governors nor Senators, neither Fox nor CNN can ignore it.”
The Straits Times in Singapore suggested that Beijing’s reaction plunges China’s relations with the U.S. to a new low. The Hong Kong-based Asia Times said Pelosi’s visit puts Japan in the Taiwan firing line and noted her “lukewarm welcome” in South Korea. Australian newspapers ranged from calling her trip a “bit of a mess” to urging restraint. And a major Japanese paper praised and ran a headline quoting her statement that “we never give in to autocrats”.
The tempest in a teapot underscores that China is not Russia: It has built a dynamic economy faster than any nation in history aimed at raising the living standards of its huge population while Putin has squandered his country’s resource wealth for 22 years to build a war machine to conquer the world. Sure China would like to annex Taiwan someday but it’s preoccupied internally with a dangerous real estate bubble, debt crisis, lockdowns, corruption, the expulsion from Western stock markets of its corporations, slowed growth and anti-Chinese sentiment due to its role in the spread of Covid, its treatment of Uighur Muslims, and its coziness with Russia.
This is why it’s naive to imagine that Putin’s Ukrainian catastrophe has whetted China’s appetite for military aggression. It’s done the opposite. China’s economic dependence on Russia is miniscule, but its economic dependence on Europe and the United States is enormous which is why it doesn’t provide military aid to Putin. Even so, China deserves to be called out over its trade cheating, illegal takeover of Hong Kong, human rights abuses, and its bullying of Taiwan and others in the region. So good for Nancy Pelosi. She was right to go to Taiwan.
I thank you for your cool, dispassionate analysis of the issue--I have heard and read far too much "the sky is falling" (or is about to fall) rhetoric about Taiwan. The Chinese are generally much more pragmatic about things than the Russians, it seems.
Sometimes, just to make a point, isn’t worth the cost. Putin’s move proves this, and I’m sure China has observed the outcome so far. I doubt 1 Billion of the 1.4 Billion could care less if they get control of Taiwan. As you say, China has more pressing issues.