Germany’s Otto von Bismarck once quipped about politics that “to retain respect for laws and sausages, one must not watch them in the making”. The same applies to hard-nosed business negotiations, and the world has just witnessed Donald Trump demonstrate that he is not a statesman but a ruthless magnate. In recent days, he trash-talked about Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky by calling him a “dictator” who caused the war, then proposed an outrageous deal to rebuild Ukraine that would give America 50% of the net proceeds from all of Ukraine’s mineral base, fossil fuels, and infrastructure companies until it reached $500 billion. Zelensky obviously couldn’t sign such an agreement but humbly offered to resign his position in the hopes of getting better terms for his country. By “bending the knee,” he convinced Trump to offer an alternative deal that scrapped most of the onerous demands. Thus, on February 25, Zelensky acceded, and on February 28, he stated he would go to Washington to formally sign the deal with Trump.
From a strictly business viewpoint, Trump’s resource deal is a coup. It may help end the war and provide a joint venture plan to rebuild Ukraine with American partners and European protection. American economic prospects will also improve because an expense, i.e., military aid to Ukraine, will now mostly be borne by Europe, and proceeds from rebuilding and resource extraction will flow into American coffers. Then, shockingly, last week, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin jumped on the bandwagon by offering Trump a similar resource deal in the disputed portions of Ukraine now occupied and destroyed by Russian soldiers and where tens of thousands of children have been kidnapped and sent to Russia for adoption. It was a cynical, obscene proposal, given that Russia does not own these lands and that Putin has been charged with war crimes for ordering the abduction of these children. Trump’s response must be a demand that the lands and children are returned.
As for Ukraine’s deal, Trump’s team backed down after talks. It scuttled the suggestion of creating a joint reconstruction fund, owned 100% by America, and agreed to forego 50% of the net income from the country’s two biggest petroleum corporations. This was because Ukrainians convinced him that government revenue derived from these two companies was necessary to finance its future government services and military. Unfortunately, the revised deal still fails to include explicit security guarantees from America, but Washington maintains that Europeans must be responsible for protecting Ukraine, and they have agreed.
On February 21, U.S. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz said, “President Zelensky is going to sign that deal, which is good for Ukraine. What more could you have for Ukraine than an economic partnership with the United States?” Former UK prime minister Boris Johnson also rejected suggestions that the deal was a "rip-off.” He said, "What the Ukrainians get from this is a United States commitment under Donald Trump to a free, sovereign, and secure Ukraine.” That may happen, but it’s not an ironclad guarantee.
Ukraine marks a major geopolitical pivot. A businessman now sculpts a new world order by commercializing foreign policy. Ironically, the Ukrainians realized how to get Trump’s attention before others. In November, they initiated a scheme inviting Trump to exploit their critical minerals in return for military aid. It was an offer he couldn’t refuse. From now on, in Trump World, money talks, and diplomacy walks. The cornerstone of his strategy is that mutual economic self-interest will save the day. He believes that massive American financial investment inside Ukraine will keep Putin away because the assumption is that it will be defended by American military might. In Europe’s case, he believes Europeans know they depend on Ukraine to guard the continent’s eastern flank from Putin and that they must, and will, build armed forces to help keep the peace.
Trump’s mercantile behavior in Eastern Europe also meets two more strategic objectives: 1) to address America’s frightening budgetary deficits by dramatically reducing America’s enormous military commitments and pruning its Pentagon, which is bloated and represents 13.3% of America’s oversize budget annually; and 2) to allow America to keep winning its technology war against China. Beijing has spent decades buying, or locking up, the critical minerals and other essential resources needed worldwide in the future. With this Ukrainian deal and others, such as Greenland, Trump aims to match or surpass China’s stockpile.
What’s concerning to many is that Trump has been willing to butter up the Butcher of Europe to make a deal. Trump even “bent the knee” this week by pushing through a resolution at the United Nations Security Council calling for the end of the war without mentioning who started it. Such historical revisionism is Putin’s stock in trade and the rationale behind his murder and mayhem. For instance, he believes that Ukraine is merely a breakaway province, that Ukrainians are nazis, and that NATO’s expansion forced him to invade. Trump has failed to dispute such falsehoods and has also officially “papered” over Putin’s predation in the Security Council.
Trump became used to dealing with thugs in rapacious and ruthless New York City. To him, these Ukrainian negotiations are like another takeover deal involving tough guys and a distressed property. Trump’s flattery toward the predator, as well as his rancorous negotiations with the leader of a country that has been victimized, are tactics. Threats fly, along with lies and insults, tempers flare, but the champagne flows when the deal is finally signed. It’s all simply business. But it’s appalling to observe, as Bismarck warned, and the real deal — getting Putin to stop his genocidal war — has yet to be won. It was upsetting to hear Trump’s reaction to the news that Zelensky was coming to DC to sign the deal personally after so much acrimony. When asked about this, he cavalierly said, “I hear he’s coming on Friday. Certainly, it’s OK with me if he’d like to.”
Anyone who does business with Trump is taking a gamble. I don't think Ukraine should trust anything Trump says or even puts in writing.
Thank you, Diane. That was an excellent synopsis—Trump, Commander and Chief of Lies, and Extortion. Ukraine must have a seat in NATO.