Things are looking up for civilization these days. President Donald Trump took a deserved victory lap at the recent NATO gathering for single-handedly hectoring alliance members until they agreed to spend 5% of GDP on their defense and Ukraine’s – an amount that will add roughly $1 trillion a year to “common defense” against Russia and others. Trump also reaffirmed America’s commitment to NATO’s mutual defense pledge and threatened tariff penalties on Spain and others who may fail to meet the 5% requirement. He then complimented President Zelensky, promised air defense systems for Ukraine, and said, “Vladimir has to end that war.” Additionally, he appointed Alexus Grynkewich as his top US general in Europe, who is of Belarusian descent and who contradicted Putin’s war narrative when he told the Senate this week: “Ukraine can win against Russia. 'I think any time your own homeland is threatened, you fight with a tenacity that's difficult for us to conceive of.”
Trump’s about-face is understandable. Now that allies were committed to paying their fair share, he could shed his combative approach. There is also growing evidence of Putin’s blatant indifference toward peace or a ceasefire. And by harnessing the wealth of Europe to the cause, there is more burden sharing and certainty that Putin can be contained, pushed back, or persuaded to stop. On top of it all, this guarantees Ukraine’s steady supply of military assistance because Europe will continue to supply arms and equipment, even if the United States reduces its allocations. This “Hague Commitment” is key to global security in the future because it was Europe’s inability and refusal to arm or protect itself from Russian influences, corruption, meddling, sabotage, propaganda, espionage, and energy domination that led to Putin’s 2014 and 2022 invasions of Ukraine. The war against Ukraine was not, as Putin characterizes, started because NATO threatened Russia. It happened because NATO was not threatening Russia or anyone at all.
Trump deserves full credit for reconstituting and strengthening the Western post-war security system, which will also help keep China and Iran at bay. But the European and American media gave him little credit for this. Many have demonized Trump and drubbed NATO head Mark Rutte for fawning and flattering him. But credit was due. “This is the success of President Donald Trump,” Polish President Andrzej Duda told journalists at the summit. “Without the leadership of Donald Trump, it would be impossible.” His Lithuanian counterpart even suggested a new motto for the alliance, “Make NATO Great Again,” after applauding Trump’s criticism of stingy allies. Trump has promised to police NATO by punishing its laggards, such as Spain, by hiking their US tariffs if they fail to meet the 5% commitment.
Trump walked away with a significant diplomatic win, but so did Ukraine. He repeated a telling anecdote to illustrate his commitment to ending Russia’s aggression. “He’d [Putin] like to get out of this thing. It’s a mess for him,” Trump said. “He called the other day, and he said, ‘Can I help you with Iran?’ I said, ‘No, you can help me with Russia.’”
More importantly, Donald Trump met Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky at the NATO meeting, whom he roughed up in the Oval Office weeks ago, but now described as “nice” multiple times. “I wanted to know how he’s doing. He was very nice, actually,” Trump said. “He’s fighting a tough battle. It’s a tough battle. What I took from the meeting — couldn’t have been nicer actually — was that he’d like to see it end,” Trump said of Zelensky. “I think it’s a great time to end it. I’m going to speak to Vladimir Putin and see if we can get it ended.” Later in closed sessions, Trump said, “Putin really has to end that war. People are dying at levels that people haven’t seen before for a long time,” and it is “getting out of control”.
Trump’s turnaround is in sharp contrast to his obsequiousness towards Putin. Back in January, after his inauguration, Trump was confident that a deal could be reached. Still, after weeks of talks, on May 28, Trump imposed a two-week deadline on Russia to stop bombing Ukraine to see if Putin was serious about peace. Putin began increasing his bombing assaults, Trump said, and did nothing, but the situation has been embarrassing for the “tough guy” in the White House. Besides that, much has changed in recent days: Trump has decisively helped topple Putin’s ally, Tehran, and then he successfully pushed NATO into becoming more powerful. The result is that Trump is now publicly stating that Putin is the problem, is a danger who likely will invade more countries, and is not the “victim.” Ukraine is.
He also confessed the Russian negotiations are "more difficult than anyone had thought", and that "Putin is more difficult". By contrast, he announced that he had a “good” and productive meeting at NATO with Zelensky, whose priority was “the purchase of American air defence systems to shield our cities, our people, churches, and infrastructure”. He said that Ukraine was willing to buy US equipment and “support American weapons manufacturers”.
Underscoring Trump’s shift was a poignant exchange at a press conference on June 25 between Trump and Ukrainian journalist Myroslava Petsa, who is with the BBC. Typically belligerent toward journalists, Trump selected her to ask a question at the NATO press conference, and she asked whether more air defense could be provided for Ukraine, as it was being “pounded”. “A good question. I can see this is hard for you,” said Trump uncharacteristically, then his voice softened as he asked her about her situation. She responded that she and her two young children evacuated to Warsaw after the invasion, at her husband’s request, and that he joined the Ukrainian army to fight. Trump said, “You want anti-missile missiles, the Patriots? We’ll see if we can make some available. They are hard to get.” Then, Trump added, “Say hello to your husband, OK?”
On January 25, Trump took his final bow at the NATO meeting in The Hague, appearing statesmanlike and triumphant. He vowed that Russia wouldn’t attack the alliance during his presidency. “This is a monument, really, to victory, but it’s a monumental win for the United States,” he said. “This is a big win for Europe and, actually, for Western civilization.”
But three days later, on June 28, Putin unleashed his worst bombing attack against Ukraine since the war began in February 2022. A Ukrainian pilot was killed and his F-16 fighter jet crashed fending off Moscow’s massive aerial assault, which killed an unknown number of civilians. Zelensky said Moscow launched 477 drones and 60 missiles towards six different locations overnight. He added that in the previous week, 114 missiles, over 1,270 drones, and nearly 1,100 glide bombs had been launched against Ukrainian civilians, schools, hospitals, and apartment buildings in several cities. "This war must be brought to an end - pressure on the aggressor is needed, and so is protection," Zelenskiy said in his X post after the attacks. "Ukraine needs to strengthen its air defence - the thing that best protects lives."
Trump has pivoted and promised more Patriots this week, but he must also provide more money and weapons to Ukraine and strong-arm Russia. He must endorse the proposed draconian 500% tariffs against Russia’s oil customers, as suggested by Senator Lindsey Graham. These measures and more are essential because, thus far, Trump and NATO don’t frighten Putin, whose latest taunt about the war was days ago when he once again declared that “all of Ukraine is ours”.
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I'm flabbergasted by this pivot, but find myself wondering why the sudden change? Is it because NATO members are coughing up more dough? Maybe--but they've been ramping up for months and months. Is it because Trump wants the Nobel Peace Prize so he can put a gilded frame around it and hang it on a wall in his bedroom in yet another effort to convince himself he's the biggest and brightest and most shiny object in the room? Pardon me for observing for the nth time that it seems unlikely Trump is doing anything that is not primarily self-interested. But we'll take the win, because Ukraine needs the help. That's IF and WHEN Donnie Two Weeks doesn't fail to follow through.
"The war against Ukraine was not, as Putin characterizes, started because NATO threatened Russia. It happened because NATO was not threatening Russia or anyone at all." Truer words were never spoken. Also, is the pivot happening because Iran is out of the way?