Trump's War

July 17, 2025

President Donald Trump finally admitted on July 14 that Vladimir Putin had strung him along and announced massive weapons shipments for Ukraine. He issued an ultimatum, giving Putin 50 days to agree to a cease-fire or face economy-busting sanctions. But the President’s delay is a mistake, and why 50 days? After all, Trump, a real estate landlord, would never allow interlopers who were trashing his property to have 50 days to vacate. Putin’s summer offensive is underway, with the help of 30,000 North Korean reinforcements. Until September, Putin will slowly gain ground and relentlessly bomb Ukrainian cities, killing civilians and depleting air defense missiles. Last month, more than 5,000 drones hit Ukraine, wounding or killing thousands, and air defense systems may take weeks to arrive. Little wonder, then, that Russia’s Dmitry Medvedev ridiculed Trump’s announcement as “theatrical” and Western allies were taken aback. Sadly, two military experts aptly described Trump’s “deal” as a “50-day license to kill in Ukraine”.

Summer targets: Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, Kharkiv

The BBC commented that the Kremlin was “relieved” by Trump’s announcement. The Moscow stock index jumped 2.5 percent after he spoke, because it meant that anticipated and draconian sanctions were pushed back for 50 days or more. “If this is all Trump had to say about Ukraine today, then for now, it’s all just hot air,” commented Konstantin Kosachev, a senior lawmaker. American investor, Sir Bill Browder, who was driven years ago from Russia, suggested that “Putin is continuing to laugh at Donald Trump”. He added that no one should believe Trump after he backed off his last request for a 30-day ceasefire from Putin, and has failed to impose additional sanctions on Moscow since taking office. “Putin still believes he can win his war against Ukraine, and he has no intention of stopping,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. “He will not sacrifice his goals in Ukraine for the sake of improving relations with Trump.”

Putin will likely double down and attempt to conquer more key regions, as well as resource-rich portions of Ukraine. His armies recently captured a lithium-rich region, an area explicitly set aside for joint exploitation with the United States as part of its mineral deal with Kyiv. Putin has an infinite supply of cannon fodder, and his cash flow continues because powerful sanctions have not been imposed on him or his oil customers. The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington think tank, wrote, "Putin holds a theory of victory that posits that Russia can achieve its war aims by continuing to make creeping gains on the battlefield indefinitely and outlasting Western support for Ukraine and Ukraine's ability to defend itself."

It's shocking that Trump has announced high tariffs on all members of NATO and allies around the world, but spared Russia. But this week, he stated that if there is no ceasefire within 50 days, Russia and its oil customers would be subject to tariffs of 100%. While high, this was considerably lower than the 500% tariffs on Russia that have been proposed by Senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal, and are now before Congress. Such “secondary” tariffs will particularly affect countries such as China, India, Brazil, Hungary, Slovakia, and Turkey.

The Senators hope that 500% tariffs will convince Russia’s customers to put pressure on Moscow to stop the war, which is unlikely. India and China bear the brunt of these levies. India’s government is upset with the US over this prospect, and Lin Jian, spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, stated that Beijing's position on ending the Ukraine war has been consistent and clear, and that it can only be achieved through dialogue and negotiation. "China firmly opposes any illegal unilateral sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction," Lin said, "It's hoped all parties will further foster an environment and accumulate conditions to advance the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis, and take more actions that are conducive to peace talks."

But Trump’s lapses and inexplicable warmth toward Putin remain puzzling. Some believe he is a Russian agent, and others maintain he is simply naïve. However, his former national security advisor John Bolton explained, in an interview with Newsweek, the President’s international relations “process”: “Trump doesn't even really do policy in the way most of us understand that term. It's all transactional, episodic, ad hoc, and it's about how he is seen," he said, adding that Trump governs "day to day" without a long-term vision. “Each day is a new day. That's how he does things."

Bolton said Trump regards international relations with leaders as personal relationships. Until now, Trump considered Putin a “friend,” but the President began to pivot a couple of months ago when negotiations failed. Then he recently made a U-turn as Russia’s brutality and genocidal atrocities escalated and worsened. Bolton said he became “irritated” and realized that Putin did not want to resolve the conflict, and was increasingly convinced that Europe was next. As The New York Times concluded, Trump was also “embarrassed at appearing like a paper tiger.”

Interestingly, Trump credited his wife, Melania, with his shift in attitude toward Putin. He said he recently told her about a “good call” he had with Putin, to which she immediately responded, “he’s just bombed another city”. (She is from Slovenia, a Slavic nation that is a close ally with Ukraine.) Another significant influence has been Mark Rutte, the former Dutch Prime Minister, who was considered for the position of NATO Secretary General due to his close relationship with Trump. He helped sculpt the complicated deal, which involves European financing and American weaponry for use by Ukraine. He also convinced NATO members to agree to bolster their security budgets to 5% of GDP and gave all the credit for the reform to Trump, deservedly. The result is a foreign policy trifecta: Trump has finessed isolationist concerns within MAGA by transferring most of the cost and military burden to Europe; his arms trade deal will reduce America’s trade deficit with Europe; and, hopefully, the war will end.

Melania waves Slovenia’s flag in 2024

Unfortunately, Trump’s ultimatum won’t work, and military experts at the Pentagon are wringing their hands. But fortunately, the American General in charge of its European forces is Alexus Grynkewich, who strongly and publicly believes that “Ukraine can win.” All of NATO’s members understand that Putin is nobody’s friend, a menace to the world, and will never give up on conquering Ukraine, then Europe. The result is that Ukraine’s armed forces will be well-equipped from now on. “It's [the package of weapons and ammunition] broader than Patriots," said Rutte. "It will mean that Ukraine can get its hands on really massive numbers of military equipment, both for air defence, but also missiles, ammunition."

Perhaps the turning point is near: Trump shifted, and Europeans recognize that Putin poses an existential threat and must be permanently stopped. Unfortunately, Trump foolishly gave Putin 50 days to stop because he does not understand history, the Russian leader, or the nature of warfare. Imagine if Hitler or Japan’s Hirohito were offered free passes for 50 days before a ceasefire? Would Paris or Brussels have survived? How many hundreds of thousands of American soldiers would have died invading Japan at the end of World War II if the bombs hadn’t brought the war to an immediate end?

Putin is a scourge, and this is now Trump’s war. But the day after he announced weapons would flow to Ukraine, Trump told Ukraine not to target Moscow. However, he was wrong again. Russia should stop now or face ruinous sanctions as well as long-range missile attacks by Ukraine, backed by NATO, on Moscow and St. Petersburg. That, tragically, is the only way the killing will stop.