Ukraine: Fog of Peace

February 17, 2025

Germans coined the phrase “fog of war” in the 19th Century to describe the uncertainty of situational awareness during military operations. Today, Ukraine navigates the “fog of peace” as uncertainty and gamesmanship plague negotiations and the Western alliance crumbles. Donald Trump will meet Vladimir Putin this month to end the war in Ukraine, but he’s already said he doesn’t want Ukraine to join NATO and won’t commit US troops to guard it from Russia after the fighting stops. Instead, he wants Europeans to take full responsibility for Ukraine's post-war security and wants America to profit from Ukraine’s reconstruction and the development of its valuable resources, not others. Besides fighting for spoils, the Trump team sowed dissension among its allies. America is beating a hasty retreat from its role as a global policeman, and Europeans convened an emergency meeting to discuss how to ensure their own security. Ukraine’s President Zelensky summed up the monumental consequences: “The time has come for the armed forces of Europe to be created.”

Superpowers carve up Europe

Trump’s Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, served notice immediately this week at the Munich Security Conference. "The American troop levels on the continent are important," he said, alongside his Polish counterpart, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz. "What happens five, 10, 15 years from now is part of a larger discussion that reflects the threat level, America’s posture, our needs around the globe, but most importantly, the capability of European countries to step up. That’s why our message is so stark to our European allies — now is the time to invest because you can’t make an assumption that America’s presence will last forever.”

This and the prospect of Trump slapping 30% tariffs on all European exports to the United States rattled Europe's leaders. Worse, Trump also plans to ruthlessly take advantage of Ukraine. His Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent presented Zelensky with an outrageous and one-sided resource deal granting Washington a 50% interest in Ukraine’s resource income, including oil and natural gas, graphite, lithium, and uranium. It was a loan shark take-it-or-leave-it arrangement. Bessent said the United States wanted the minerals and fossil fuels “as payback for the aid we’ve given them,” according to sources, but the deal did not mention ongoing military or financial assistance. “Mr. Zelensky, who has shown openness to leveraging Ukraine’s mineral resources in negotiations with allies, said he rejected the deal because it did not tie resource access to U.S. security guarantees for Kyiv in its fight against Russia,” The New York Times reported.

Ukraine proposed giving Americans access to help development, but not this kind of deal. The country is not for sale. Naturally, Zelensky refused to sign because he could not sign away from the country’s assets, which are owned by its people. But Trump is pushing everyone around, including victims as well as allies. In his first remarks, Defense Secretary Hegseth cavalierly “deputized” Europe to take responsibility for protecting Ukraine in the future and firmly declared: “Any security guarantees [to protect Ukraine against another invasion] must be backed by capable European and non-European troops as a non-NATO mission and not covered under Article 5.”

Clear-eyed and realistic as always, President Zelensky explained to Europeans the significance of America’s realignment. “Europe may not understand what’s happening in Washington right now,” he said on CNN. “It must focus on what’s happening here. The US needs Europe as a market, but as an ally, it is not sure. He [Trump] told me about his conversation with Putin and did not once mention Europe should be at the table. The Americans also want security guarantees [from Europeans] to prevent Russia from ever invading again.”

European leaders have panicked, and this week's summit will address the Trump administration’s push to criticize and isolate them. Europe won’t be represented at the meeting between Trump and Putin, but Zelensky will. But French President Emmanuel Macron has called for more European security for years without success, and he will chair the meeting with “the heads of government of Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy, Poland, Spain, the Netherlands, and Denmark, as well as the Presidents of the European Council, the European Commission and NATO.” UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer called it a “once in a generation” moment for national security. He said for the first time that Britain was ready to put its own troops on the ground in Ukraine should it be necessary to guarantee that country’s security. “The UK will work to ensure we keep the US and Europe together. We cannot allow any divisions in the alliance to distract from the external enemies we face.”

Meanwhile, the Americans have made many “rookie errors” in the lead-up to the Trump-Putin summit, such as alienating allies and announcing “no NATO membership” and “no US troops” concessions before talks. Then, US Vice President J.D. Vance tried to recoup by claiming that America wouldn’t hesitate to use “economic and military tools” to force Russia to negotiate in good faith. But the damage was already done. Such blunders by Trump’s team may prove fatal for Ukraine and the continent. In his first term, Trump negotiated a deal with Islamist radicals in Afghanistan without having Afghans present at the table. This resulted in creating conditions and forging a truce that allowed the Taliban zealots to regroup and reoccupy the country a few years later. This is why Zelensky’s presence at the table is critical.

Vance alienated Europeans by lecturing them for “ignoring the threat from within” their societies posed by floods of immigrants and welfare statism. In a sermon likely adapted from stump speeches he’d delivered back home, he accused them of “retreating from values” and curbing free speech. It played well on Fox News, but his remarks as America’s Vice President should have been statesmanlike, devoted to rallying behind the cause, and stoking support among allies to defeat Russia. It is curious and concerning that Trump’s disdain for Europe is matched by Putin’s. In early February, the Russian dictator sneered that Trump would “restore order” in Europe and that European nations “will all stand at the feet of the master and will tenderly wag their tails.”

A Wall Street Journal editorial agreed that Europeans should guard Ukraine after the war ends but that America must also become more involved by supplying weapons to Ukraine and taking on Russia elsewhere in the world. “The U.S. could reassure [Ukraine] by moving the bulk of its European military presence from Germany to Poland and letting American contractors help the European peacekeepers in Ukraine. If he abandons Ukraine, he’ll soon find that China is even more emboldened to take Taiwan. The U.S. can increase military support to Ukraine, remove limits on the use of weapons, and intensify pressure on Russia elsewhere around the world. Why does the Wagner Group still have a free ride in Africa?”

In Munich, only Zelensky provided the “situational awareness” that appears to be missing in both Washington and Brussels. Last year, Russia increased its army by 140,000 (to 1.15 million) and will add another 150,000 this year. Most will be sent to Belarus under the pretext of training – the same excuse Putin used in 2022 before he invaded Ukraine. The assumption will be that they’ll attack Ukraine, but in reality, they will be poised to invade Lithuania and Poland. “Why doesn’t anyone think this will happen?” he said. Russia has 220 brigades, roughly consisting of 3,500-5,000 men each. Ukraine has 110; Europe just 80. “Do you understand what is happening? Without Ukraine, Europe will be occupied.”

An attack on a Baltic state will bring in NATO and America. This is a portentous moment. If Trump agrees to lift sanctions, Russia will be ready for another war in a matter of months. If Ukraine’s army is neutered — it’s now larger than the German, French, Italian, and British armies combined — Europe will be vulnerable. If America pulls out of NATO, all bets are off. As Estonia’s Foreign Minister said, Trump could become the "Churchill of our time.”

Or not.