Ukraine's Plan B

May 26, 2025

The world’s most boastful dealmaker was out-maneuvered by the world’s most murderous leader in a two-hour phone call on May 19. Trump backed off his demand for a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine and refused to impose draconian sanctions to end the war in Ukraine, allegedly because Putin dangled business opportunities before him. Trump touted the “large scale trade” Russia could conduct with the U.S. once the “bloodbath” was over. But who can, or wants to, do business with a kleptocracy run by a mafia with Europe’s lowest living standards? Besides, why would Trump fail to pull the trigger and apply draconian sanctions passed by Congress against Russia, which were designed to force a deal? Trump capitulated, then turned his sights toward Europe — Ukraine’s allies and America’s biggest trading partners — by threatening 50% tariffs on all their exports. At around the same time, Putin unleashed a massive missile and drone attack on Kyiv, revealing his ongoing commitment to his war. Thus, in a few head-spinning days, Europeans realized that they faced a two-front “war”: America’s economic aggression on their West and Russia’s ruthless invasion of Europe on their East.

On May 22, Germany responded to Russia’s ongoing threat by deploying soldiers outside its borders to Lithuania for the first time since WWII. The Guardian

Europeans wasted no time after Trump’s surrender to Putin, and on May 20, the day after the Putin call and bombing, they announced tough sanctions on Moscow. More dramatically, on May 22, Germany deployed thousands of German combat troops outside its border for the first time since WWII. This marked a “historic day,” said German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who accompanied the soldiers to Vilnius, Lithuania. He is Franco-German and won the election in early May on a platform of building Europe’s defenses, helping Ukraine, and reducing dependence on American military assistance. Last week, he explained that Germany’s military expansion into Lithuania was based on the commitment that “the security of our Baltic allies is also our security.” The fact that Europe’s most prosperous country was taking such action was welcome news for those who realized that the continent must now unite into Fortress Europe to repel Russia’s aggression and to reduce Trump’s tariffs.

Americans were also appalled with Trump’s Putin pivot. U.S. Senator Jeanne Shaheen summarized the significance and disappointment. “Putin played Trump like a fiddle. It’s appeasement. If he’s not stopped in Ukraine, he can go into a NATO ally. Then it will be a world war.” To others, it was another example of Trump’s worrisome and erratic nature: Trump went from being tough to spewing optimism about the phone call, then outright capitulation followed by fawning over Putin. Like other instances, he began wavering after making a firm pronouncement and, just before the Putin call, began reducing expectations for some unknown reason. “If something doesn’t happen, I just have to back away,” he said. After caving in completely, he jubilantly declared that “the tone and spirit of the conversation were excellent” and added that Putin is a “nice gentleman.”

It was another significant setback but not a checkmate. Trump’s policy-making process is now referred to, by wags, as the TACO Trade or the Trump-Always-Chickens-Out negotiating style. He starts with braggadocio (“I’ll end the war in 24 hours” or “I’ll put 145% tariffs on China”), and then he changes deadlines, details, and decisions without explanation. Ironically, Trump’s chronic unpredictability is now “predictable,” and TACO is the new normal. For instance, on May 25, Trump said he was surprised by Putin’s hideous bombing attacks on Ukraine after their telephone call. “We’re in the middle of talking, and he’s shooting rockets into Kyiv and other cities…for no reason whatsoever,” he said, adding he may consider sanctions after all. “He has gone CRAZY…I’ve always said that he wants ALL of Ukraine, not just a piece of it, and maybe that’s proving to be right, but if he does, it will lead to the downfall of Russia!” Then, another about-face. When asked whether he was considering levying additional sanctions against Russia, which he has threatened several times, Trump responded: “Absolutely, he’s killing a lot of people.”

Fortunately, Europe rose immediately to the challenge after Trump’s phone flop, with Germany’s Merz sending troops to Lithuania and adding enormous financial clout to the continent’s burgeoning “coalition of the willing,” headed by Britain, France, and Poland. Merz was elected in early May because he said his “absolute priority” was “strengthening Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the U.S.”

Putin won’t give up occupied territory and plans to take more.

Putin’s savage bombing of Kyiv on May 24 once more brought home to Europeans, now possibly Trump, that the brutality and war are far from over. Putin’s message was simple: The West must “agree to our `offer’ or else” -- the “offer” is a demand that Russia permanently keep Crimea plus the four regions it has annexed: Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. These four areas form a land bridge between Russia and Crimea and contain most of Ukraine's rare metals and minerals. Further, Putin does not want a ceasefire and intends to launch a summer offensive to conquer the portions of the four regions Russia doesn’t already occupy, as well as to try and gobble up some or all of Sumy and Kharkiv in the northeast.

Fortunately for Europe, Trump’s tariff threat will be diminished because of Europe’s need to militarize quickly. Tariffs will become less relevant as the Euros will become enormous customers of America’s military-industrial complex to grow their armies and supply Ukraine’s military. This will result in hundreds of billions worth of imported goods and services from America in the form of weapons, ammo, equipment, personnel, surveillance, intelligence, and technology. And the funds are there. Germany just committed to spending 5% of its GDP on defense, a target that Trump demanded on January 23. Poland, plus the three Baltic nations, have committed to 5%, too, and most of NATO’s 32 members pledge to spend 3.5% on core defense and 1.5% on road, rail, and ports that support military operations. Germany’s commitment alone totals half a trillion dollars. Atop that, there is also talk in Berlin of developing a German atomic bomb.

Merz, France’s Emmanuel Macron, and Britain’s Sir Keir Starmer aim to create a military-industrial complex in partnership with Ukraine and to build an aerial defense system to protect the western half of Ukraine and Europe. To help pay for this, Merz is the first Euro leader fiercely in favor of seizing and handing over Russia’s $300 billion in frozen central bank assets to Ukraine for its defense and reconstruction. Europe’s 17^th package of sanctions announced on May 23 will also pave the way for the creation of a continental “navy” dedicated to patrolling the seas and ports to prevent infrastructure sabotage and interdict Russia’s fleet of hundreds of oil tankers delivering sanctioned oil to China and India to pay for Putin’s war. It will also prevent the burdensome floods of migrants from Russia, the Middle East, and North Africa that have arrived in the European Union.

Germany’s Merz pledges half a trillion toward Europe’s defense

Putin is unmoved by all of this, unleashing bombs and recently ruling that the dissolution of the Union of the Soviet Socialist Republics was illegal because the Kremlin never approved it. The move is primarily symbolic but broadcasted Putin’s intention to recapture all of Ukraine, the Baltic states, and the Central Asian Republics and prevent the splintering of the Russian Federation into dozens of ethnic entities.

The only encouraging news following Trump’s failure with Putin is his second thoughts following the vicious bombing, the ongoing condemnation of the war and support for Ukraine in Congress, the existence of Congress’s draconian sanctions threat, and the fact US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signed the G7 financial minister memorandum this week condemning “Russia’s continued brutal war against Ukraine.” The document also commended “The immense resilience of the Ukrainian people and economy. The G7 remains committed to unwavering support for Ukraine in defending its territorial integrity and right to exist and its freedom, sovereignty, and independence toward a just and durable peace.” Finally, the G7 promised to keep Russian assets frozen and explore new punitive measures.

Following that declaration, many Europeans and Ukrainians breathed a sigh of relief. One Brussels official spoke for many worldwide when he said, “Thank God.”