Ukraine's Precipice

April 22, 2024

Russia’s most effective weapons against Ukraine have been Donald Trump, Victor Orban, and leaders in rich countries who have been timid or pulled their punches. Fortunately on April 20, Congress passed a desperately needed $61-billion military aid package despite opposition by Putin Republicans who delayed approval for months. That dickering was disastrous for Ukrainians. Thousands of their soldiers died or were wounded, and Russia gained another 5 per cent of the country. But now military help is on its way and won’t be delayed, according to military officials, and will arrive before Russia’s offensive in June. The US is also sending non-combat military advisors to Kyiv, for the first time, and Europeans are bolstering their armies and expediting military aid shipments to shore up Ukrainian efforts. Finally, Western governments have stopped debating about whether to drag their tanks or jets out of arsenals or out of storage for Kyiv. Ukraine has plenty of tanks and is about to receive dozens of F16 fighter jets before June. Given obstructions since 2022, it’s remarkable that Ukraine has defied all odds and may even be poised to drive Russia out of Ukraine, experts believe. Moscow’s military is mediocre, and can be defeated, but only if the West goes all in. “Russia cannot defeat Ukraine or the West - and will likely lose - if the West mobilizes its resources to resist the Kremlin,” wrote the ISW, or Institute for the Study of War.