Why Ukraine Must Win

December 21, 2023

American and European politicians delay financing Ukraine’s war effort while Putin doubles down. But the stakes couldn’t be higher and four maps shown below illustrate why. James Stavridis, a former supreme allied commander of NATO, recently provided a cost-benefit analysis about providing military aid: If money to Ukraine dwindles this year, Putin will win; if the US and Europe give $100 billion this year (only 8.3 percent of their combined defense budgets of $1.2 trillion) Ukraine will be able to hold off further significant Russian land gains, and if promised F-16s, cluster munitions or ATACMS, air defenses, long-distance artillery systems, more tanks, and sufficient ammo arrive, the tide will begin to turn for Ukraine. Alternatively, predicts the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), if funding is insufficient Russia will win and the costs to the West will be staggering, according to its recent report. Russian troops will swarm Ukraine as well as Belarus and “the United States will have to deploy to Eastern Europe a sizeable portion of its ground forces and a large number of stealth aircraft.”