American Hubris
August 19, 2021
The Soviet Union withdrew from Afghanistan in 1989, following a decade of staggering financial and human losses. Its departure marked a geopolitical turning point. The Red Army was damaged, Kremlin political leaders were discredited, and the Soviet Empire – the size of North America and Europe combined – began disassembling. This ended the Cold War, with its dozens of proxy wars and client states, and liberated 21 nations that were captive behind the Iron Curtain.
Now America has withdrawn from Afghanistan, following two decades of staggering financial and human losses. This departure also marks a turning point. The United States, like Russia, believed it could violently “nation-build” a medieval country into its own image. The Soviets wanted to create another workers’ paradise which, by the way, didn’t even exist in Russia. And Americans believed naively that they could create a Central Asian paradise where people would live happily ever after because they could pursue life, liberty, happiness, and shop in big box stores. Besides those fantasies, both wrongly believed that Afghanistan was a cohesive country when it’s nothing more than a collection of warring tribes and drug operations that share a vast region.
Like the Soviet Empire in 1989, America’s Pentagon has been damaged, its political leaders discredited, and – it may come as a shocker – Americans may finally realize that few societies or cultures fancy America’s version of what’s highly desirable. Diversity, intermarriage, democracy, licentiousness, promiscuity, materialism, greed, competition, individualism, capitalism, social mobility, libertarianism, and credit card debt are not everybody’s cup of tea.
Worse, America’s foreign policy and military elites obviously don’t learn from their mistakes. The Fall of Saigon was more traumatic and murderous and yet, despite that, the Fall of Kabul has been a re-run. Vietnam destroyed public trust in government and politics and ended conscription and this time Afghanistan will increase isolationism, nativism, and anti-immigrant sentiment. Hopefully, terms like “regime change” and “nation-building” won’t be trotted out anytime soon by White House officials or K Street military-industrial lobbyists. Even so, America must remain the world’s policeman.
Active troop deployments abroad serve peacekeeping roles and hold in check nuclear powers Russia, North Korea, China, India, and Pakistan. But wars against terrorism and tyranny should be executed by networks, not armies. This is the Russian model: use social media campaigns, mercenary special forces, counter-terrorism measures, sabotage, surveillance, cyber-attacks, espionage, political influence and infiltration, and, where needed, targeted drone or airstrikes to weaken or punish “enemy” states and pre-emptively destroy weapons, leaders, and organizations. Diplomacy is another important tactic as are sanctions, tariffs, or market access curbs.
Of course, Russia’s model is aimed at destroying capitalism, democracy, the United States, and European Union, not necessarily in that order. But its methods work and should be used by America (and many secretly are) to weaken and undermine bad actors such as Russia, China, and Iran. At the same, America’s alliances must be strengthened involving reliable countries that pull their weight militarily and are vulnerable such as Ukraine, Iraq, the Baltics, and Taiwan. The Afghan set has them jittering.
In addition, carrots, as well as sticks, are also key “weapons”. Germany, for instance, immediately announced that it will provide no aid to the Taliban government if it forbids females to work or attend school. Others must do the same. In the future, all financial assistance – from loans to charity to economic development -- must be predicated on strict deliverables. For instance, the Taliban’s appeal for help to disrupt Afghanistan’s drug trade should be addressed only if the government executes the objective successfully and measurably. And humanitarian aid to any country, notably to kleptocracies or dictatorships, must be delivered directly into the hands of those in need, not through corrupt intermediaries. This was not done in Afghanistan or elsewhere for that matter.
America should also consider adopting the Chinese model to win new friends and influence people: Concentrate on improving economic and educational outcomes at home and roll out a mercantilist policy abroad. Instead of spending trillions to destroy infrastructure, China builds infrastructure for poor countries through its trillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative. It lends them the money for these projects in return for access to their markets and mining opportunities. This is a win-win geopolitical model: a Marshall Plan with strings attached that creates jobs at home and doesn’t aim to change hearts and minds and regimes after first destroying a country with bombs.
Instead, America’s arrogant overreach was doomed to fail and has rattled allies. China, through its Global Times mouthpiece, is trying to capitalize on this to unsettle Taiwan and Asian allies. On August 16, its editorial stated that “Afghan abandonment a lesson for Taiwan’s DPP [Democratic Progressive Party] government’s collapse proves the US can’t be trusted”. The article even included a veiled threat to invade Taiwan: “Once a cross-Straits war breaks out while the mainland [China] seizes the island [Taiwan] with forces, the US would have to have a much greater determination than it had for Afghanistan, Syria, and Vietnam if it wants to interfere… The military intervention of the US will be a move to change the status quo in the Taiwan Straits, and this will make Washington pay a huge price rather than earn profit.”
Clearly, America’s standing in the world has been diminished by launching wars that are hubristic and political, and not existential such as its World War II effort against nihilism and Naziism. In the future, America must do its homework before taking up arms and, in some cases, should just butt out. Simply put, all countries are like families, some more dysfunctional than others. To push the metaphor further, the way a family raises its children is nobody’s business. But if there is evidence that the parents are harming or endangering the neighbors, then pressure should be brought to bear and barriers erected. If that doesn't work, and escalation occurs, then the “police” should be brought in … but only as a last resort.
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"The United States, like Russia, believed it could violently “nation-build” a medieval country into its own image."
Nope. This was just Darth Cheney and GOP cabal finding yet another war to burn up military equipment (and human beings) which would need to be replaced, generating years of kickbacks to the GOP, world without end.
Thanks Diane. Hubris is right. Also lies about the nation building was a great success. It was a very expensive failure and understandable in the end the Afghan people did not want a civil war. As for China, look at their crushing of democracy in Hong Kong. In Kenya where I visited 2 years ago, yes they built a new railway line from Mombassa to Nairobi but saddled the Kenyan people with the cost. Hardly philanthropic.