Beginning of the End for Russia
June 24, 2023
Riveting events unfold in Russia now that mark the acceleration of Russia’s collapse. Just a week ago, it would have been inconceivable to imagine that a favored Russian’s oligarch’s mercenary army would sudden turn tail and seize Rostov, linchpin hub for Moscow’s war against Ukraine, then march toward the Kremlin. The challenger is Evgeny Prigozhin, a thug and wealthy “warlord”, who has been criticizing Russian generals for months. But last week he escalated his attacks by saying the war against Ukraine was completely unjustified. He said Ukraine and NATO were never going to attack Russia but that this was the excuse concocted by Russian elites who wanted the invasion so they could further plunder Ukraine for their own gain. Prigozhin should know. He has made a fortune himself by pillaging and plundering on behalf of Russia and waging war in Ukraine in 2014 and 2022 as well as in Syria, Mali, Libya, and other regions in Africa. Now he wants to bring down the elites to stop a rotten war.
“The war wasn’t needed to return Russian citizens to our bosom, nor to demilitarize or denazify Ukraine,” Mr. Prigozhin said, referring to Mr. Putin’s initial justifications for the war. “The war was needed so that a bunch of animals could simply exult in glory.”
For that and other statements, plus mobilization against Russia’s army, he’s now accused of “treason” by Putin and hunted by Russia’s armed forces. How this plays out is less important than the historical significance of this “open rebellion” against Moscow. Even if crushed, he has opened a Pandora’s Box inside an increasingly restive Russia where ethnic groups are upset that their sons are cannon fodder and not those living in Moscow or St. Petersburg. More importantly, he can only be defeated if Russian troops are diverted from the frontline to Rostov and Moscow to stop his mutiny. That will help Ukraine’s counter-offensive.
It is also possible that Russian troops, or other disgruntled generals, may join Prigozhin and his Wagner rebels. If that occurs, then regime change is certain and the eventual expulsion of Russia from Ukraine will be enabled. Today, an early dispatch from intelligence sources inside Russia — later withdrawn — stated that an important brigade just refused to go to Rostov to fight against Prigozhin’s mercenaries. If, as reported, the 45th Guards Spetsnaz Detached Brigade (special ops forces) has stood down refusing to defend Moscow, or some have join Wagner troops, then it is game over for Putin and the war.
Prigozhin’s attack may never succeed, but he’s already dealt Putin a fatal blow. Until today, Prigozhin has been a critic who was protected by Putin because he laid blame for the war’s failures on Russia’s military and greedy elites. But now he says the war itself is a “lie” and has turned a behind-the-scenes power struggle inside the Kremlin into international headlines. And Russians may be brainwashed and frightened, but they are not stupid.
You're probably right, Diane, in your conclusions as to how this will end up. And, yes, the comments about justification for the war are very damning and can never be taken back. But it all seems just a bit too orchestrated. Although Prigorzhin's popularity has gone up because of his straight talk, Putin is still very popular. And it is hard to imagine that Putin would have allowed Prigorzhin to build up his forces and stature without taking action earlier. If there is one thing that Putin is can sniff out, it is a challenger to his power. Remember, the western world had been duped for decades by stories about hawks vs. doves in the Soviet politburo, until - after the demise of the USSR - it was learned that there were no such divisions at the top.
The other thing that troubles me is that Prigorzhin's decision to challenge Putin was, apparently, a missile that fell on his troops. He accuses the russian military but the russians deny it. And, as of now, there is no "evidence" of such a firing. It would not be too far-fetched for both Ps to later "find" that Ukrainians were "responsible".
Final point: in addition to his regular military and a host of other "syloviki" at his disposal, Putin has a praetorian guard of close to 100,000. If you recall from history, the emperor's praetorian guard were the "kingmakers" and Putin's are loyal to him alone. Could this "mutiny" end up in a quick collapse (if it is a mutiny) and then a period of blood-letting as Putin goes about cleaning house of all those disloyal to him and doubles down on Ukraine?
Just some thoughts from someone who mistrusts everything about putin and russia...even the "obvious"
I am watching BBC now - this is going to be a massive change & hopefully the RU people will see how cruel & a lier Putin is - the support of oligarchs & the death of their sons for nothing!