You're probably right, Diane, in your conclusions as to how this will end up. And, yes, the comments about justification for the war are very damning and can never be taken back. But it all seems just a bit too orchestrated. Although Prigorzhin's popularity has gone up because of his straight talk, Putin is still very popular. And it is hard to imagine that Putin would have allowed Prigorzhin to build up his forces and stature without taking action earlier. If there is one thing that Putin is can sniff out, it is a challenger to his power. Remember, the western world had been duped for decades by stories about hawks vs. doves in the Soviet politburo, until - after the demise of the USSR - it was learned that there were no such divisions at the top.
The other thing that troubles me is that Prigorzhin's decision to challenge Putin was, apparently, a missile that fell on his troops. He accuses the russian military but the russians deny it. And, as of now, there is no "evidence" of such a firing. It would not be too far-fetched for both Ps to later "find" that Ukrainians were "responsible".
Final point: in addition to his regular military and a host of other "syloviki" at his disposal, Putin has a praetorian guard of close to 100,000. If you recall from history, the emperor's praetorian guard were the "kingmakers" and Putin's are loyal to him alone. Could this "mutiny" end up in a quick collapse (if it is a mutiny) and then a period of blood-letting as Putin goes about cleaning house of all those disloyal to him and doubles down on Ukraine?
Just some thoughts from someone who mistrusts everything about putin and russia...even the "obvious"
The National Guard did refuse to go to Rostov to fight Wagner, last I read. And yes, it does all seem rather orchestrated. Seems like Prigozhin is jockeying for Shogyu's position.
Prigozhin is such a wild card it's like watching a fire-cracker and trying to predict where it will land. And now there his mercenaries, against the 'praetorian guard' (who have never been tested) plus the main Russian military which dwarfs the rest. And the possibility of mutiny to this already volatile mix and it's like a video game.
I have thought about that too, Putin does not usually let anyone say the type of things that Prigozhin has been saying. So while we are looking over there what is happening out of sight. Could Prigozhin have a plan to get nukes?
I am watching BBC now - this is going to be a massive change & hopefully the RU people will see how cruel & a lier Putin is - the support of oligarchs & the death of their sons for nothing!
Jun 24, 2023·edited Jun 24, 2023Liked by Diane Francis
I would not assume that a people that has happily (=unrebeliously for most of the last half-millennium) "enjoyed" the freedom from responsibility that tyranny provides is not, in some sense or at some level, rather thick. The only thing I personally care for is that this war ends with a complete rout of muscovy ("russia") and, hopefully 50 years of demilitarization, as was done with Germany. That's the only way to ensure any peace in Europe for the foreseeable future. (Then do something about Serbia and Kosovo...)
Wow. Just wow. It might be a good time to reflect a bit on Russia's history. Is Putin the 21st century version of the Romanoffs? The Russian revolution occurred because Nicholas was oblivious to the possibility of the people rising up after ignoring their suffering for a very long time. He thought he could will their loyalty. In retrospect he was clueless. Perhaps Putin has done a similar thing. Isolated himself from reality.
Every dictator has an expiration date. It was very messy back then. I suspect it will be again.
BTW, Diane, I have cross posted your piece on Russia and China - it was an education, for sure. Thank you. I think most Americans think of Russia as a huge monolithic vodka swilling country.
Fabulous article and perspective Diane. In conjunction with your previous 2 articles on China and Russia so informative and hopeful. This is an unreal turn of events and I am praying for the thug.
I'm not knowledgable about mercenary armies marching on the center of power, I can only think of Spartacus which is not much help. It's hard to imagine that Prigozhin's 25,000 are actually loyal to him personally enough to die for him, but it's all so wild I suppose anything can happen. I think in the end the person or group who controls the military always has to win. I just pray this all works out for the benefit of Ukraine in the immediate future. Right now looking at the media there's a great deal of speculation but no one taking bets, unless something just happened while I'm writing this.
Thank you for the update. It's going to be interesting to see if a civil war breaks out in Russia; the fundamentals seem to be there. It could get really ugly?
Diane - it is unfolding so quickly - showing the weakness of RU within it own borders. This is just as you predicted - the cracks in Putin's power are exposed AND growing! I hope that Evil will destroy Evil - and they will implode on themselves.
The thread of comments here are multi faceted while the live reel is much like a firecracker outta control. Thanks Diane, for this most recent post on the escalation at large. And mug shot in full fatigue.
You're probably right, Diane, in your conclusions as to how this will end up. And, yes, the comments about justification for the war are very damning and can never be taken back. But it all seems just a bit too orchestrated. Although Prigorzhin's popularity has gone up because of his straight talk, Putin is still very popular. And it is hard to imagine that Putin would have allowed Prigorzhin to build up his forces and stature without taking action earlier. If there is one thing that Putin is can sniff out, it is a challenger to his power. Remember, the western world had been duped for decades by stories about hawks vs. doves in the Soviet politburo, until - after the demise of the USSR - it was learned that there were no such divisions at the top.
The other thing that troubles me is that Prigorzhin's decision to challenge Putin was, apparently, a missile that fell on his troops. He accuses the russian military but the russians deny it. And, as of now, there is no "evidence" of such a firing. It would not be too far-fetched for both Ps to later "find" that Ukrainians were "responsible".
Final point: in addition to his regular military and a host of other "syloviki" at his disposal, Putin has a praetorian guard of close to 100,000. If you recall from history, the emperor's praetorian guard were the "kingmakers" and Putin's are loyal to him alone. Could this "mutiny" end up in a quick collapse (if it is a mutiny) and then a period of blood-letting as Putin goes about cleaning house of all those disloyal to him and doubles down on Ukraine?
Just some thoughts from someone who mistrusts everything about putin and russia...even the "obvious"
The National Guard did refuse to go to Rostov to fight Wagner, last I read. And yes, it does all seem rather orchestrated. Seems like Prigozhin is jockeying for Shogyu's position.
Prigozhin is such a wild card it's like watching a fire-cracker and trying to predict where it will land. And now there his mercenaries, against the 'praetorian guard' (who have never been tested) plus the main Russian military which dwarfs the rest. And the possibility of mutiny to this already volatile mix and it's like a video game.
I have thought about that too, Putin does not usually let anyone say the type of things that Prigozhin has been saying. So while we are looking over there what is happening out of sight. Could Prigozhin have a plan to get nukes?
I am watching BBC now - this is going to be a massive change & hopefully the RU people will see how cruel & a lier Putin is - the support of oligarchs & the death of their sons for nothing!
I would not assume that a people that has happily (=unrebeliously for most of the last half-millennium) "enjoyed" the freedom from responsibility that tyranny provides is not, in some sense or at some level, rather thick. The only thing I personally care for is that this war ends with a complete rout of muscovy ("russia") and, hopefully 50 years of demilitarization, as was done with Germany. That's the only way to ensure any peace in Europe for the foreseeable future. (Then do something about Serbia and Kosovo...)
Wow. Just wow. It might be a good time to reflect a bit on Russia's history. Is Putin the 21st century version of the Romanoffs? The Russian revolution occurred because Nicholas was oblivious to the possibility of the people rising up after ignoring their suffering for a very long time. He thought he could will their loyalty. In retrospect he was clueless. Perhaps Putin has done a similar thing. Isolated himself from reality.
Every dictator has an expiration date. It was very messy back then. I suspect it will be again.
BTW, Diane, I have cross posted your piece on Russia and China - it was an education, for sure. Thank you. I think most Americans think of Russia as a huge monolithic vodka swilling country.
I think huge vodka swilling country is pretty accurate.
"Airag, or Ayrag, is the traditional Mongolian fermented mare's milk alcoholic drink."
"For hangovers, Mongolians have traditionally consumed pickled sheep eyeballs. Vodka is the most commonly consumed alcoholic drink followed by beer."
I'd prefer the hangover than pickled eyeballs!
This begs the following questions:
1. What does the extreme GOP now say after parroting Putin BS?
2 what happens to the worlds “stable genius “if Russia ,in crash mode ,calls his loan?
If only my late grandmother ( baba) could see this after leaving Odessa in 1915
Fabulous article and perspective Diane. In conjunction with your previous 2 articles on China and Russia so informative and hopeful. This is an unreal turn of events and I am praying for the thug.
I'm not knowledgable about mercenary armies marching on the center of power, I can only think of Spartacus which is not much help. It's hard to imagine that Prigozhin's 25,000 are actually loyal to him personally enough to die for him, but it's all so wild I suppose anything can happen. I think in the end the person or group who controls the military always has to win. I just pray this all works out for the benefit of Ukraine in the immediate future. Right now looking at the media there's a great deal of speculation but no one taking bets, unless something just happened while I'm writing this.
I was born in the 1940's and I have waited my whole life for this moment. Unfotunately Churchill and FDR are not here to witness this great moment.
Stalin fooled them too. They called him Uncle Joe.
What, has the UPA marched into Moscow???
Great analysis thank you
it's 1745 hrs Sat. Jun 24. I've got to say I just don't buy what just went down in Russia. Am I the only one?
Thanks Diane wotth mentioning the Pope supports Russia's invasion and so does Orthodox Russian church. Love thy neighbour Christianity?
Prigozhin scares the crap out of me, the thought of him with nukes is unthinkable
Thank you for the update. It's going to be interesting to see if a civil war breaks out in Russia; the fundamentals seem to be there. It could get really ugly?
Diane - it is unfolding so quickly - showing the weakness of RU within it own borders. This is just as you predicted - the cracks in Putin's power are exposed AND growing! I hope that Evil will destroy Evil - and they will implode on themselves.
Bring it
Talk about Russian Roulette, shall we?
The thread of comments here are multi faceted while the live reel is much like a firecracker outta control. Thanks Diane, for this most recent post on the escalation at large. And mug shot in full fatigue.