Excellent as usual, thank you. Reading your report reminds me of Jean Drapeau's statement that the Montreal 1976 Olympics would bring economic prosperity. Failure was akin to him getting pregnant. The Olympics brought on significant corruption scandals, significant debt, and so on. Many close to the construction contracts became multi-millionaires while the residents took on massive debt. By comparison, China's situation is on steroids and will take many more years to sort out at the expense of its citizens. Debt rescheduling is on the horizon for the country and its banks. Let's hope this will slow down their desire to take over Taiwan and other countries. It should slow down their military aspirations and investments.
Its striking that its China's prowess in science and technology is absent in its central bank management. Perhaps good ole fashioned communist corruption is at the bottom of it.
Thank you for an outstanding pair of articles on China. As an investor whose China ETF is down over 60% since my purchase I fear that my investment will be a write off : so much for the notion of global diversification !
all of its many problems is China due for another Cultural Revolution ? It seems to me that the Communist Party and military may seek a major confrontation to channel / distract the fury of the people away from the Party and its economic mismanagement.
Regarding the BRI and its debt, if the debtor nations default or require indulgences and forbearance does that not give China political power and leverage over those nations ? It seems to me that the quid pro quo that China will demand is that its debtors support its policies and hegemony. Seems to me that the West and India will soon have to deal with a bloc that takes its marching orders from Beijing.
Finding an external enemy is a classic technique for averting scrutiny of domestic incompetence and fiscal foolishness.
Xi and crew are no different than the emperors of the past. Their communist credentials are just a facade to hide the looting. There will be another revolution. My question is will it occur in Russia before China? Both countries have a history of the people putting up with brutality and oppression for a long time - until they don't. Both are overdue. One could inspire the other.
And what is different this time is that the people can't be insulated from the broader world with it's prosperity and relative freedoms. No matter how hard the regimes attempt to block access - the internet will provide. And then it's anybody's guess how it will explode.
I believe China will start to crumble in - like Russia - the rich will be located in the cities & the very poor will be in the countryside - lacking services etc. China could start to break up internally as well - people will wake up & protest & demand. That is what Russian people should have done long ago. But will it happen in China ?- that's a 'gamble'.
Thank you for the outstanding recap and overview of the evolving scene in China… the result of a China with growing internal stress may very well be a China that becomes more aggressive and unpredictable externally. Their investment in the military is likely the last thing that will suffer. “May you live in interesting times” is a wish that we are all presently participating in and our “leaders” are not close to being of the caliber necessary to be any type of guiding light!!
not sure how to feel about that, we (USA) need a robust competitor for our own growth lest we become complacent. I fear they may become even more of a cyber crime state to prop themselves up.
Makes me sad to see that bridge to "nowhere"! From a higher perspective, how wonderful it would be if we (all nations) could offer our talents and all take mutual pleasure in each other's contributions. As if we were a FAMILY of nations on this once beautiful planet.
Excellent as usual, thank you. Reading your report reminds me of Jean Drapeau's statement that the Montreal 1976 Olympics would bring economic prosperity. Failure was akin to him getting pregnant. The Olympics brought on significant corruption scandals, significant debt, and so on. Many close to the construction contracts became multi-millionaires while the residents took on massive debt. By comparison, China's situation is on steroids and will take many more years to sort out at the expense of its citizens. Debt rescheduling is on the horizon for the country and its banks. Let's hope this will slow down their desire to take over Taiwan and other countries. It should slow down their military aspirations and investments.
Its striking that its China's prowess in science and technology is absent in its central bank management. Perhaps good ole fashioned communist corruption is at the bottom of it.
Thank you for an outstanding pair of articles on China. As an investor whose China ETF is down over 60% since my purchase I fear that my investment will be a write off : so much for the notion of global diversification !
all of its many problems is China due for another Cultural Revolution ? It seems to me that the Communist Party and military may seek a major confrontation to channel / distract the fury of the people away from the Party and its economic mismanagement.
Regarding the BRI and its debt, if the debtor nations default or require indulgences and forbearance does that not give China political power and leverage over those nations ? It seems to me that the quid pro quo that China will demand is that its debtors support its policies and hegemony. Seems to me that the West and India will soon have to deal with a bloc that takes its marching orders from Beijing.
Finding an external enemy is a classic technique for averting scrutiny of domestic incompetence and fiscal foolishness.
Xi and crew are no different than the emperors of the past. Their communist credentials are just a facade to hide the looting. There will be another revolution. My question is will it occur in Russia before China? Both countries have a history of the people putting up with brutality and oppression for a long time - until they don't. Both are overdue. One could inspire the other.
And what is different this time is that the people can't be insulated from the broader world with it's prosperity and relative freedoms. No matter how hard the regimes attempt to block access - the internet will provide. And then it's anybody's guess how it will explode.
I believe China will start to crumble in - like Russia - the rich will be located in the cities & the very poor will be in the countryside - lacking services etc. China could start to break up internally as well - people will wake up & protest & demand. That is what Russian people should have done long ago. But will it happen in China ?- that's a 'gamble'.
Thank you for the outstanding recap and overview of the evolving scene in China… the result of a China with growing internal stress may very well be a China that becomes more aggressive and unpredictable externally. Their investment in the military is likely the last thing that will suffer. “May you live in interesting times” is a wish that we are all presently participating in and our “leaders” are not close to being of the caliber necessary to be any type of guiding light!!
not sure how to feel about that, we (USA) need a robust competitor for our own growth lest we become complacent. I fear they may become even more of a cyber crime state to prop themselves up.
India is coming to the resuce
Excellent Part II, Diane. Thank you.
Makes me sad to see that bridge to "nowhere"! From a higher perspective, how wonderful it would be if we (all nations) could offer our talents and all take mutual pleasure in each other's contributions. As if we were a FAMILY of nations on this once beautiful planet.