You may be interested in knowing, Diane, that right across the Sea of Azov and to the East of Crimea (across the Kerch strait) is an area known as Kuban. It was an area dominated by the "Kuban Cossacks" -an offshoot of the most powerful Ukrainian "Zaporozhian"Cossack state, -and settled for at least the last 300 years primarily by Ukrainians. According to Czarist census and continuing into the first half of the 20th century, Ukrainians were the majority population (55%) while Russians were the second largest group.
In 1905 a temporary Kuban Military government was formed. The pro-Russian and pro-Ukrainian factions struggled to obtain supremacy. The pro-Ukrainian faction supported autonomy and Union with Ukraine. "Ukrainian cultural life flowered. Ukrainian-language schools opened and 6 newspapers began to publish in Ukrainian. In May 1918 a delegation headed by the head of the Kuban Rada M. Riabovol visited Kiev. Diplomatic ties were announced between the Kuban People's Republic and the Ukrainian People's Republic". (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainians_in_Kuban)
Stalin's Holodomor and forced Russification hit Kuban especially hard and it is now difficult to determine the underlying sentiments of the population, but there are an increasing number of events that suggest that the repressed Ukrainian historical memory and linkage is still strong.
Perhaps the potential decolonization of Russia may take root very close to the Ukrainian homeland.
I am concerned for Japan. BUT, as RU disintegrates in power there will be movement. I hope it's not violent - bullying - which is what RU is characteristically known for. The demise of RU is 1st - then the realignment will hopefully be peaceful and coordinated - wishful thinking though. (Too much wealth for niceties among them.)
Nice mind game, but quite unlikely..and the path towards such a redefined map would be frought with violence ..we haven’t much experience with nations falling from prominence..not recently anyway. If russia does crater, how long will the hulk remain? There is no sign of pent up demand for so many tiny republics to spring up..or what will happen when the war ends, Ukraine rebuilds..and Russians are left a third world population without prospects..swapping Putin for Xi..
I sure hope that you are right Diane. Don't know how much longer I can hold my breath for the war against Ukraine to end and Putin to be taken to the Hague.
Thank you Diane for this excellent article and I never realized the complexities you outlined therein. An amazingly complex region of the world, and I agree, Putin really opened up a Pandora's Box. Let's hope Putin doesn't feel so beaten / lost, as to use nuclear weapons to make a point.
Here is another dynamic at work that could destabilize Russia. Putin has competition on the battle field and in the lust for power. This is from the NYTimes - "gifted" - no paywall.
It appears Russia has added another threat - blowing up a nuclear plant. They should be advised if they try that some of their nuclear plants will disappear also.
And if that happens it would seriously imperil the Russian people who might not like it - for the next 1,000 years.
You may be interested in knowing, Diane, that right across the Sea of Azov and to the East of Crimea (across the Kerch strait) is an area known as Kuban. It was an area dominated by the "Kuban Cossacks" -an offshoot of the most powerful Ukrainian "Zaporozhian"Cossack state, -and settled for at least the last 300 years primarily by Ukrainians. According to Czarist census and continuing into the first half of the 20th century, Ukrainians were the majority population (55%) while Russians were the second largest group.
In 1905 a temporary Kuban Military government was formed. The pro-Russian and pro-Ukrainian factions struggled to obtain supremacy. The pro-Ukrainian faction supported autonomy and Union with Ukraine. "Ukrainian cultural life flowered. Ukrainian-language schools opened and 6 newspapers began to publish in Ukrainian. In May 1918 a delegation headed by the head of the Kuban Rada M. Riabovol visited Kiev. Diplomatic ties were announced between the Kuban People's Republic and the Ukrainian People's Republic". (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainians_in_Kuban)
Stalin's Holodomor and forced Russification hit Kuban especially hard and it is now difficult to determine the underlying sentiments of the population, but there are an increasing number of events that suggest that the repressed Ukrainian historical memory and linkage is still strong.
Perhaps the potential decolonization of Russia may take root very close to the Ukrainian homeland.
I am concerned for Japan. BUT, as RU disintegrates in power there will be movement. I hope it's not violent - bullying - which is what RU is characteristically known for. The demise of RU is 1st - then the realignment will hopefully be peaceful and coordinated - wishful thinking though. (Too much wealth for niceties among them.)
Nice mind game, but quite unlikely..and the path towards such a redefined map would be frought with violence ..we haven’t much experience with nations falling from prominence..not recently anyway. If russia does crater, how long will the hulk remain? There is no sign of pent up demand for so many tiny republics to spring up..or what will happen when the war ends, Ukraine rebuilds..and Russians are left a third world population without prospects..swapping Putin for Xi..
I sure hope that you are right Diane. Don't know how much longer I can hold my breath for the war against Ukraine to end and Putin to be taken to the Hague.
Thank you Diane for this excellent article and I never realized the complexities you outlined therein. An amazingly complex region of the world, and I agree, Putin really opened up a Pandora's Box. Let's hope Putin doesn't feel so beaten / lost, as to use nuclear weapons to make a point.
Here is another dynamic at work that could destabilize Russia. Putin has competition on the battle field and in the lust for power. This is from the NYTimes - "gifted" - no paywall.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/06/23/world/russia-ukraine-news?unlocked_article_code=Z6I9hlWNCxCBFzDlOpqXspp3q_vGGf6vurhUrtc7zkCz8uKJGobfx8RLZctv1OoC2bGO3tFXa4ssMcLZzti5QyLVhayp5QOuKfW2eqxwi6cp-pdGKKaWKtkdwS-uYqB7BA27zJDXEzpWDoGZNDx0eryLjnC6vHPnrHH6ofeed5FMWUbU-Fe7nzaaHDxyYxHdOenQe26Xq2TUPllb42m06eTClDefmD0f5r7cuAH1hqV8Bmpo0qyEOkIXESJulGY0DdnX08xWntZjXDwFallWx16uJduh-dtKIMTVm0Fjnf3uLRx___kuqIgyFjnkOazdWNNANSB-aSyl4Y116r46kZJSCLM&smid=url-share
It appears Russia has added another threat - blowing up a nuclear plant. They should be advised if they try that some of their nuclear plants will disappear also.
And if that happens it would seriously imperil the Russian people who might not like it - for the next 1,000 years.
the division of the spoils of collapse may well cause new conflicts
Very interesting thank you