Israel: A Trap and No Endgame
October 23, 2023
Israel and Ukraine are enmeshed in wars, refugee crises, destabilization, and a constant stream of coverage and footage showing civilian suffering and cities reduced to rubble. America helps both, but the difference is that Ukraine’s refugees are sheltered in Europe and the country will eventually join the European Union. By contrast, Israel’s government has no end game and is about to invade despite a caution issued by President Joe Biden. Diplomacy and prudence are required but are not evident. Hamas obviously sets a trap: The release of two hostages this week and promise of more has given the terrorists more time to booby-trap northern Gaza and move their fighters, equipment, and the hostages elsewhere. And more tricks await. Once the tanks roll in, Hamas will broadcast fake depictions of Israeli atrocities to generate terrible headlines and further alienate Arab states. And Israel’s intention to permanently pull out of Gaza after the invasion is not an endgame, but a disaster waiting to happen. What becomes of Gaza’s 2.3 million people as well as to the other 2.4 million Palestinians living in the West Bank with 670,000 Israeli “settlers” who intend to displace them? What will happen to neighboring states such as Lebanon and Jordan and Iraq, or to Israel’s economy and reputation? The stakes are too high and an invasion solves nothing, especially because Hamas and the hostages will likely be gone if they aren’t already. There is, and always has been, only one viable solution which is to address the Palestinian problem.
The outcome and execution of this war, and its aftermath, will determine whether the Middle East is set on fire or not. Iran’s goal is to destroy Israel, and the West, with two weapons: Bankrolling terrorism and perpetuating the Palestinian problem. The Oct. 7 massacre by Iran’s proxy, Hamas, was mounted to derail the US-brokered deal with Israel and Saudi Arabia because it would have improved relations and addressed the Palestinian situation. The three-way agreement would have normalized relations, invested $90 billion to economically develop Gaza and the West Bank, and guaranteed Saudis protection from Iran. The deal is now off the table, but must somehow be resurrected.
Before that can happen, the Arabs and the West must mediate a solution to this looming humanitarian disaster. As one regional security source said bluntly: "Israel doesn't have an endgame for Gaza. Their strategy is to drop thousands of bombs, destroy everything and go in, but then what? They have no exit strategy for the day after.”
Unfortunately, it appears that Israel’s plan is to decimate Hamas and its infrastructure then declare victory and exit. The Financial Times quoted an unnamed Israeli official who vowed that “Israel will not be part of the solution in terms of giving [Gazans] work. We’ve disconnected the umbilical cord” and he added that all existing border crossings between Gaza and Israel will be permanently closed. Even Isaac Herzog, the President of Israel, concurred. “We have no desire to occupy or reoccupy Gaza. We have no desire to rule over the lives of more than two million Palestinians,” he said in an recent interview with CNN.
The spectre of a strategically-placed power vacuum, with 2.3 million starving people, is a nightmare scenario. Gaza would become a staging ground for misery, terrorism, and crime on an industrial scale. This possibility is top of mind in the meetings currently being held in Cairo among regional and global leaders. The question is who will govern Gaza after Israel washes its hands?One proposed scenario would be to put the Palestinian Authority, which nominally runs the West Bank, in charge. But this is a non-starter because that administration is riddled with corruption and incompetence and has been incapable of preventing Israeli settlers from illegally annexing land there. This will spiral into another civil war. A second option would be create an interim government in Gaza, backed by the UN and Arab nations, to rebuild and restore order. But this would require UN Security Council approval and Russia, Iran’s ally, would veto such an initiative. A third possibility would be if Arab nations, led by the wealthy Gulf states and the U.S. and Europe, devised a reasonable two-state solution. This may seem impossible, but it’s time that Arab states realize that they too, like Palestinians and Israelis, are being held hostage by Iran.
In the absence of a coalition ready to act, there appears to be a gang-up afoot which will badly backfire. The Guardian ran an opinion piece headlined “Israel’s endgame is to push Palestinians into Egypt’s large Sinai region — and the west is cheering it on.” It claims that Western governments are offering large economic incentives to Cairo, a claim corroborated by Egyptian news site Mada Masr. But its government pushes back. Firstly, a flood of refugees could endanger Egypt itself which is in the midst of an economic crisis and currency devaluation. Egyptians also fear the upheaval and terrorists that may upend their society from such a massive influx and its President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has rejected any forced displacement flat out. He said imposing such a move would constitute a war crime and turn the Sinai into a base for attacks against Israel. The King of Jordan has also refused to accept more refugees. At this point, Jordan houses a disproportionate number and has 760,000 displaced persons, mostly Syrians, who were orphaned following their civil war which was stoked by Iran and Russia.
Tom Friedland, a Middle East expert and influential New York Times’ columnist, argues fiercely against an Israeli invasion. “If Israel goes into Gaza and takes months to kill or capture every Hamas leader and soldier but does so while expanding Jewish settlements in the West Bank — thereby making any two-state solution there with the more moderate Palestinian Authority impossible — there will be no legitimate Palestinian or Arab League or European or UN or NATO coalition that will ever be prepared to go into Gaza and take it off Israel’s hands. There will be no one to help Israel pay the cost of caring for more than two million Gazans — not if Israel is run by a government that thinks, and acts, as if it can justifiably exact its revenge on Hamas while unjustifiably building an apartheid-like society run by Jewish supremacists in the West Bank.”
The situation escalates. Over the weekend, Iran and Israel traded threats and the Americans moved more ships into the Persian Gulf. But the solution is not force or more revenge, and never has been. The only panacea is for the region to finally address its Palestinian problem in order to end decades of turmoil and avert a wider war. There simply is no other alternative.
Thanks for your comments. No one has noted, as I reasoned, that this is all a trap for Israel and it's falling into it. You'll also enjoy my previous newsletters: Israel's War Within, Israel's Angst, Middle East Morass, Israel Iran and Russia (explains it's behind all this), Hubris to Humiliation or my June 3 piece explaining Israel's underlying demographic/sociological problems called Israel's Hidden War
Excellent, I think you conclusion is correct