Thanks for your comments. No one has noted, as I reasoned, that this is all a trap for Israel and it's falling into it. You'll also enjoy my previous newsletters: Israel's War Within, Israel's Angst, Middle East Morass, Israel Iran and Russia (explains it's behind all this), Hubris to Humiliation or my June 3 piece explaining Israel's underlying demographic/sociological problems called Israel's Hidden War
Tks (I think) for this report of the quagmire of a mixture of millions of different ethnic groups - many who 'hate' far more than 'desire' peace - is stunning & I see no solution in my life time as this is supported by huge terrorists interests like Russia that has little concern nor puts any value on human life. Arggggg (lol)
Your analysis is well reasoned.Tom Friedman has recently participated in a podcast called " Israel's Morally Impossible Situation ". Simply put, your comments accurately reflect what he said . While no fan of his, I acknowledge that he raises several valid points, all of which you mention. The most relevant discussion that I found was a 2012 debate on Intelligence Squared " The Allied Bombing of Germany " which features an all star cast of experts some of whom confirm the futility of engaging in indiscriminate urban bombing. General David Petraeus has declared that the impending ground assault is "fiendishly" difficult. He opines that the IDF is asking what comes next after the assault ? What is the vision ? Who will be in charge after the Israelis leave ? What does Israel want to do to improve the lives of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank ? How will Gaza be rebuilt and governed and by whom ?
Friedman says that he knows nobody in Bibi's cabinet and that they are religious hardliners and outliers that are utterly incompetent. He says that Bibi is responsible for October 7/23 because he chose to focus on destroying the PLA rather than Hamas and that two of his motives were to ensure continued West Bank settler expansion and to avoid the Supreme Court's ordering conscription of ultra- orthodox Jews into the military ( hence the judicial reform controversy ) ostensibly to ensure the survival of his coalition.
Douglas Murray, a British talking head, has opined that it is not up to the UK Government to weigh in on the issue of Israeli reaction since the government has allowed senior Hamas leaders to openly and freely live in the UK for years ( Britain has become a retirement home for Hamas leaders ). He also opines that the world wide demonstrations that advocate the killing of Jews and destruction of Israel reflects a bigger problem, to wit, the abject failure of Western democracies to deal with those that advocate the killing of Israelis and Jews. He opines that those that celebrate terror and that advocate the killing of Jews should be expelled from the UK. He also opines that "hate laws" are uninteresting and relatively useless. He asks what would have happened after the ChristChurch mosque massacre had folks gathered around NZ embassies around the world celebrating the massacre : would the world have said that they were entitled to free expression like those that celebrated the massacre of Israelis ? I wonder if major American cities, college campuses and their Woke/ Progressive professors and administrators would have endorsed the celebration of the mosque murders ? Should Israel accept what happened with equanimity. Paul Wood refers to well founded supposition that Iran was behind the massacre. Joe Rayburn, a ME authority, says that Iran ordered the attack to buy time to develop its nuclear weapons, cripple Israel and the US. Finally, he says that Iran will order Hezbollah to attack Israel if Hamas' survival is in doubt. One must also consider that October 7/23 served the interests of Russia ( diverting material intended for the Ukraine ) and Iran ( preventing Saudi Arabia from signing a peace deal with Israel ).
In the final analysis, I think that it comes down to this : both sides are going to suffer terrible casualties ; the hostages will be massacred ; the IDF will not eliminate Hamas ; Israel will suffer a pr disaster ; N. American, EU and UK and Latin American anti-semitism of all types will worsen ; the Israeli electorate which has already turned on Bibi's coalition and will boot them out asap.
Meanwhile, how will the Axis of Evil ( China, Russia and Iran ) react to the ground assault and its aftermath ? Former CIA director John Brennan has declared that the US military is more than capable of handling all three if required. Let us hope he is right !
I may have missed it in all the news coverage of this terrible situation, but do we know yet how it was allowed in the first place? How on earth were the Israelis caught off guard to such an extent???
Failure of such seemingly simple (routine) tasks as maintaining intelligence gathering in Gaza and a very secure border have led to this.
And let me be very clear: in no way do I condone the horrible atrocities inflicted upon innocent civilians by Hamas on October 7. However, someone was asleep at the switch. We need to know who.
Furthermore, and with respect to the end game, I was very surprised by the photos/video of the Hamas terrorists walking/running/driving across the border through breaches in the wire border fencing made by bulldozers. (Also the ease with which those gliders flew into the country.)
I had assumed that the Israeli border was 100% protected by significant concrete walls, presumably double walled with a "no man's land" in between, ala the Soviet Union's border and particularly the Berlin Wall.
Invading Gaza, as you and others suggest, is not a solution but rather a reaction with no end in sight and exactly what the Iranians and others opposed to democracy want. It is predictable (and probably justified) but won't change anything.
Israel needs to channel the billions such an invasion will cost into building a better border wall and security systems, and leaving the Palestinians for the Arab countries to deal with. (Just as the EU needs to ramp up their financial support for Ukraine rather than relying on the US to foot most of the bill.)
I’m better informed than I was 17 days ago, though barely the wiser but I’ve learned some things. 1. Some brave Israelis in Israel speak up against their own government - the newspaper Haaretz, Amira Haas, Gideon Levy etc. and they can because Israel is a democracy 2. We can know every person in the Israeli government 3. I have read the word Hamas hundreds of times but have almost no information about Hamas 4. Hamas’ strategy was terror, murder and chaos on October 7th and nothing else 5. Israel gave the Gaza’s 24 hours to leave Gaza city but there has so far been no ground incursion by all those Israeli tanks, only (only!) attacks by air 6. Netanyahu is still in charge, though the disaster is his failure and he should have been forced to resign; this is massive political malfunction. 7. No Gazans complain about Hamas, and with good reason, it would be fatal; for the same reason, on the West Bank no one complains about Abbas 8. No western commentator, ie., the retired generals, can figure out how a terrorist gang like Hamas can be defeated with tanks and troops on the ground. 9. Some Israeli government figures are willing to prioritize the military operation over getting the hostages back, but many people want to get the hostages back alive at all costs; I’m with the latter 10. The West Bank and Gaza are occupied territories; the people there are oppressed by their own authorities - Palestinian Authority and Hamas - and no Palestinian can speak freely in those places. But those people are also oppressed by the Israeli government who are the occupiers of the occupied territories; I’ve read a lot recently about the violent ‘settler’ groups in the West Bank who are like the vigilantes we had in the old West. Or lynch mobs like in the old South 11. Israel is legally responsible for all people living in the lands over which Israel claims sovereignty, which is why some Israelis are calling Israel an apartheid state. 12. I thought the Israeli Defense Force had it all worked out as to how to find and destroy Hamas in Gaza, but apparently they are as much in the dark as we are; this is very alarming. 13. The giant wave of horror and support following October 7th is rapidly dissipating with each day’s stories of death and destruction in Gaza; the Israelis are aware of this and trying to counter it 14. The media report pretty much what anyone tells them but I do not trust anything reported as said by ‘Hamas’ and there are endless opportunities for fake news 15. There are many pro-Palestinian demonstrations in Britain, not because Brits are very antisemitic but because it’s safe and easy to demonstrate in Britain 16. As of right now, today, we get this from Aryeh Deri, a veteran Israeli politician and close ally of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, explaining the reason for the delay. "We are over two weeks after the terrible terrorist attack we went through. We must tell the truth, no one was prepared for this. No one was prepared for such a terrible disaster, the large volumes of the murdered and kidnapped, and a very difficult struggle on several fronts," he said. Well, I believe him, but if I may offer some advice: Stop killing Gazans who are mostly innocent bystanders, who did not elect Hamas which seized power and has used its time digging tunnels and planning terror; we understand the situation is impossible but dropping bombs on people for whom you have legal responsibility is just not ‘good optics’ to use a vile expression.
Thank you for your excellent recap of a terribly complex situation. Given the years of inhumane acts of war against individuals with religious connotations, I'm not hopeful we'll ever a solution? What I can't understand is that if Russia/Putin and Iran are actively working together to destabilize the Middle East and other countries like UKR, US elections, etc..., why does Russia/Putin have veto powers on the UN Security Council? Why does China have the same power when they officially signed a friendship agreement with Russia/Putin. Is present day "Russia" appropriately represented by "Putin"; a man with a super ego?
Thanks for your comments. No one has noted, as I reasoned, that this is all a trap for Israel and it's falling into it. You'll also enjoy my previous newsletters: Israel's War Within, Israel's Angst, Middle East Morass, Israel Iran and Russia (explains it's behind all this), Hubris to Humiliation or my June 3 piece explaining Israel's underlying demographic/sociological problems called Israel's Hidden War
Excellent, I think you conclusion is correct
Tks (I think) for this report of the quagmire of a mixture of millions of different ethnic groups - many who 'hate' far more than 'desire' peace - is stunning & I see no solution in my life time as this is supported by huge terrorists interests like Russia that has little concern nor puts any value on human life. Arggggg (lol)
Diane,
Your analysis is well reasoned.Tom Friedman has recently participated in a podcast called " Israel's Morally Impossible Situation ". Simply put, your comments accurately reflect what he said . While no fan of his, I acknowledge that he raises several valid points, all of which you mention. The most relevant discussion that I found was a 2012 debate on Intelligence Squared " The Allied Bombing of Germany " which features an all star cast of experts some of whom confirm the futility of engaging in indiscriminate urban bombing. General David Petraeus has declared that the impending ground assault is "fiendishly" difficult. He opines that the IDF is asking what comes next after the assault ? What is the vision ? Who will be in charge after the Israelis leave ? What does Israel want to do to improve the lives of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank ? How will Gaza be rebuilt and governed and by whom ?
Friedman says that he knows nobody in Bibi's cabinet and that they are religious hardliners and outliers that are utterly incompetent. He says that Bibi is responsible for October 7/23 because he chose to focus on destroying the PLA rather than Hamas and that two of his motives were to ensure continued West Bank settler expansion and to avoid the Supreme Court's ordering conscription of ultra- orthodox Jews into the military ( hence the judicial reform controversy ) ostensibly to ensure the survival of his coalition.
Douglas Murray, a British talking head, has opined that it is not up to the UK Government to weigh in on the issue of Israeli reaction since the government has allowed senior Hamas leaders to openly and freely live in the UK for years ( Britain has become a retirement home for Hamas leaders ). He also opines that the world wide demonstrations that advocate the killing of Jews and destruction of Israel reflects a bigger problem, to wit, the abject failure of Western democracies to deal with those that advocate the killing of Israelis and Jews. He opines that those that celebrate terror and that advocate the killing of Jews should be expelled from the UK. He also opines that "hate laws" are uninteresting and relatively useless. He asks what would have happened after the ChristChurch mosque massacre had folks gathered around NZ embassies around the world celebrating the massacre : would the world have said that they were entitled to free expression like those that celebrated the massacre of Israelis ? I wonder if major American cities, college campuses and their Woke/ Progressive professors and administrators would have endorsed the celebration of the mosque murders ? Should Israel accept what happened with equanimity. Paul Wood refers to well founded supposition that Iran was behind the massacre. Joe Rayburn, a ME authority, says that Iran ordered the attack to buy time to develop its nuclear weapons, cripple Israel and the US. Finally, he says that Iran will order Hezbollah to attack Israel if Hamas' survival is in doubt. One must also consider that October 7/23 served the interests of Russia ( diverting material intended for the Ukraine ) and Iran ( preventing Saudi Arabia from signing a peace deal with Israel ).
In the final analysis, I think that it comes down to this : both sides are going to suffer terrible casualties ; the hostages will be massacred ; the IDF will not eliminate Hamas ; Israel will suffer a pr disaster ; N. American, EU and UK and Latin American anti-semitism of all types will worsen ; the Israeli electorate which has already turned on Bibi's coalition and will boot them out asap.
Meanwhile, how will the Axis of Evil ( China, Russia and Iran ) react to the ground assault and its aftermath ? Former CIA director John Brennan has declared that the US military is more than capable of handling all three if required. Let us hope he is right !
I may have missed it in all the news coverage of this terrible situation, but do we know yet how it was allowed in the first place? How on earth were the Israelis caught off guard to such an extent???
Failure of such seemingly simple (routine) tasks as maintaining intelligence gathering in Gaza and a very secure border have led to this.
And let me be very clear: in no way do I condone the horrible atrocities inflicted upon innocent civilians by Hamas on October 7. However, someone was asleep at the switch. We need to know who.
Furthermore, and with respect to the end game, I was very surprised by the photos/video of the Hamas terrorists walking/running/driving across the border through breaches in the wire border fencing made by bulldozers. (Also the ease with which those gliders flew into the country.)
I had assumed that the Israeli border was 100% protected by significant concrete walls, presumably double walled with a "no man's land" in between, ala the Soviet Union's border and particularly the Berlin Wall.
Invading Gaza, as you and others suggest, is not a solution but rather a reaction with no end in sight and exactly what the Iranians and others opposed to democracy want. It is predictable (and probably justified) but won't change anything.
Israel needs to channel the billions such an invasion will cost into building a better border wall and security systems, and leaving the Palestinians for the Arab countries to deal with. (Just as the EU needs to ramp up their financial support for Ukraine rather than relying on the US to foot most of the bill.)
I’m better informed than I was 17 days ago, though barely the wiser but I’ve learned some things. 1. Some brave Israelis in Israel speak up against their own government - the newspaper Haaretz, Amira Haas, Gideon Levy etc. and they can because Israel is a democracy 2. We can know every person in the Israeli government 3. I have read the word Hamas hundreds of times but have almost no information about Hamas 4. Hamas’ strategy was terror, murder and chaos on October 7th and nothing else 5. Israel gave the Gaza’s 24 hours to leave Gaza city but there has so far been no ground incursion by all those Israeli tanks, only (only!) attacks by air 6. Netanyahu is still in charge, though the disaster is his failure and he should have been forced to resign; this is massive political malfunction. 7. No Gazans complain about Hamas, and with good reason, it would be fatal; for the same reason, on the West Bank no one complains about Abbas 8. No western commentator, ie., the retired generals, can figure out how a terrorist gang like Hamas can be defeated with tanks and troops on the ground. 9. Some Israeli government figures are willing to prioritize the military operation over getting the hostages back, but many people want to get the hostages back alive at all costs; I’m with the latter 10. The West Bank and Gaza are occupied territories; the people there are oppressed by their own authorities - Palestinian Authority and Hamas - and no Palestinian can speak freely in those places. But those people are also oppressed by the Israeli government who are the occupiers of the occupied territories; I’ve read a lot recently about the violent ‘settler’ groups in the West Bank who are like the vigilantes we had in the old West. Or lynch mobs like in the old South 11. Israel is legally responsible for all people living in the lands over which Israel claims sovereignty, which is why some Israelis are calling Israel an apartheid state. 12. I thought the Israeli Defense Force had it all worked out as to how to find and destroy Hamas in Gaza, but apparently they are as much in the dark as we are; this is very alarming. 13. The giant wave of horror and support following October 7th is rapidly dissipating with each day’s stories of death and destruction in Gaza; the Israelis are aware of this and trying to counter it 14. The media report pretty much what anyone tells them but I do not trust anything reported as said by ‘Hamas’ and there are endless opportunities for fake news 15. There are many pro-Palestinian demonstrations in Britain, not because Brits are very antisemitic but because it’s safe and easy to demonstrate in Britain 16. As of right now, today, we get this from Aryeh Deri, a veteran Israeli politician and close ally of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, explaining the reason for the delay. "We are over two weeks after the terrible terrorist attack we went through. We must tell the truth, no one was prepared for this. No one was prepared for such a terrible disaster, the large volumes of the murdered and kidnapped, and a very difficult struggle on several fronts," he said. Well, I believe him, but if I may offer some advice: Stop killing Gazans who are mostly innocent bystanders, who did not elect Hamas which seized power and has used its time digging tunnels and planning terror; we understand the situation is impossible but dropping bombs on people for whom you have legal responsibility is just not ‘good optics’ to use a vile expression.
Thank you for your excellent recap of a terribly complex situation. Given the years of inhumane acts of war against individuals with religious connotations, I'm not hopeful we'll ever a solution? What I can't understand is that if Russia/Putin and Iran are actively working together to destabilize the Middle East and other countries like UKR, US elections, etc..., why does Russia/Putin have veto powers on the UN Security Council? Why does China have the same power when they officially signed a friendship agreement with Russia/Putin. Is present day "Russia" appropriately represented by "Putin"; a man with a super ego?
Thank you Diane.
2.3 million Gazans crammed into a tiny world 25 miles long
and 6 miles wide. Presumably
half of them now pushed into
South Gaza. Another 2+ million Palestinians in the
larger West Bank. No effective government for any
of them.
Even if Egypt agreed to allow
them into the Sinai, there's
nothing there. It's a brutal
environment. That's why it's
barren.
There must be a 2 state settlement and the Saudis
need to man up.
What role do you believe Putin is playing inn all of this.