Mid-termination
November 10, 2022
It was a relief that America’s mid-term election was non-violent, that many radical candidates lost, and that a replacement for the disruptive Donald Trump now exists. To wit, Republican Governor Rick DeSantis swept Florida without Trump support and also garnered some traditionally Democratic votes along the way. This makes him a Presidential possibility and is why Trump is expected to announce his candidacy for the Presidency in 2024 next week even though his “Red Wave” didn’t materialize and he may soon be indicted for stealing documents or for inciting the January 6 insurrection. For these and other reasons, the November 8 mid-term election will prove to be more significant than most. It sets the scene for a new political drama, but also provides telling insights into the mindset of the American electorate. Clearly, there is voter fatigue with Trump and his inept flunkies; there is also fatigue with Democratic progressivism; support for Ukraine; and remarkable resilience by Democrats despite Joe Biden’s dreadful public approval ratings.
The New York Post endorsement of DeSantis provides an enormous boost for him, as does a new poll that found two-thirds of Americans don’t want Trump to run again because of his shenanigans and the same percentage don’t want Biden to run because of his age. The mid-terms also delineated front-runners from each party for 2024: Florida’s Governor DeSantis and California’s Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom. Both men are popular and experienced and, most importantly, each won gigantic landslides on November 8.
But neither Trump nor Biden will go quietly into the night. The rambunctious former President is already running and picked a fight with DeSantis to clear his path. “I will beat him like I beat everybody,” he has bragged when asked. Unfortunately, a scorched earth strategy may win him re-nomination, but will also benefit Democrats by splitting the Grand Old Party into opposing camps.
Biden, on the other hand, said the day after the mid-term election that he “intends to run again” but will make a final decision sometime next year. This stance is clever, allowing him to avoid the problem of being hobbled as a “lame duck” President or the embarrassment of changing his mind if he decides to retire. Biden’s intentional procrastination also tests the waters and doesn’t preclude viable Democrats, notably the 55-year-old Newsom, from building a national profile and donor base to run for President in 2024.
But 2024 is an eternity in politics and the way forward for each party or leader will be difficult. Hours after the mid-terms, control of the House and Senate remain up for grabs and potential scenarios are bleak. A Republican-controlled House could lead to legislative gridlock, government shutdowns, or pesky probes. A Democrat-controlled Senate could give Biden enough leverage to find middle ground and get legislation passed. But electoral divisions may result in America treading water until 2024.
Undaunted, Trump will push ahead and if indicted will play the martyr card to his MAGA base. DeSantis, no longer a “Trumplican”, will fight back but it will get rougher. In an interview with Fox News on the day of the mid-term general election, Trump actually threatened DeSantis publicly: “I would tell you things about him [DeSantis] that won’t be very flattering – I know more about him than anybody – other than, perhaps, his wife.” Trump also labelled him “Ron DeSanctimonious”.
DeSantis, 44 years old, will continue to play the Trump card even though he is less corrosive and less erratic. He is a Harvard-educated lawyer who joined the Navy and served in Iraq. A Sun-Sentinel reader once described him as “a cheap Trump knockoff” who never misses an opportunity to adhere to the anti-government MAGA party line while, at the same time, never refusing hurricane relief, emergency funds, or ventilators from Biden’s federal government. But DeSantis is a contender and raised a staggering $200 million for his governorship re-election bid and still has half left to take on Trump and raise his national profile.
On the Democratic side, Newsom who is 55 years of age, has stated publicly that he won’t run against Biden unless the President announces he will retire. But he’s the heir apparent — a popular, progressive Democrat with movie star looks, who runs the most important state in the nation. His handlers have been lining up donors in competition with Vice President Kamala Harris’ crew. He’s also made the rounds on Wall Street and become actively engaged in fighting “culture” wars across the country, defending abortion, gun controls, and gay rights. He is, like DeSantis, his party’s obvious choice for 2024.
This election was fascinating for other reasons as well. The first member of Generation Z (those under 25 year of age) ran in Orlando Florida and was handily elected. Maxwell Alejandro Frost, 25, is a classic Generation Z: He is mixed race (Afro-Cuban), hasn’t finished college, drives an Uber to support himself, and is a community activist who refers to his generation as the “Mass Shootings Generation”. Most importantly, he will embody the views of members of the Generation Z demographic who, by 2024, will represent one in ten eligible voters.
November 8 also marked the entry of two new Republican Kingmakers -- tech giant Peter Thiel and his former partner Elon Musk who waded into the election by tweeting out support for Republicans. Months ago, Thiel began investing tens of millions of dollars in various candidates with mixed results. His two biggest bets were J.D. Vance, author of Hillbilly Elegy, who won a Senate seat in Ohio, and Blake Masters in Arizona who hasn’t as yet. But win or lose, this duo’s participation marks a new phenomenon — Silicon Valley libertarians with clout — who will increasingly influence America’s world of politics.
It is also interesting to note that candidates who veered from issues of importance to mainstream voters fared poorly. For instance, roughly 60 per cent of Americans believe abortion should be legal and 27 per cent of voters this time itemized abortion rights as their single most important issue. They also won abortion rights on ballot referendum questions in four states. Democracy versus autocracy per se wasn’t on the ballot, but scads of “electoral deniers” lost even in Republican districts. Foreign policy wasn’t on the ballot either, but 75 per cent of Americans back Biden’s support for Ukraine and NATO. This reality threatened to derail Republicans who questioned these commitments and led Republican Senator Rick Scott to state bluntly, before the mid-term voting, that “I think we have to continue to do everything we can to support Ukraine, who wants to defend its freedom and stop Russia.”
It was also obvious that many voters rejected the dozens or possibly hundreds of outright “bat+@#*t crazy” candidates across the country who won nominations merely because they had kissed Trump’s hem. The existence of so many lousy candidates was decried in advance by Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell, to no avail. Another factor overriding these contests was the contrast in leadership personalities. Biden is cool, calm, and Congressionally capable compared to Trump who is chaotic, incompetent, and a creator of crises.
American historians will debate for years what happened on November 8 and why. But I think historian Jon Meacham teased out the most important reason behind the outcome. The results reflect “that it’s not a political winner in a democracy to launch an insurrection” and he added that real leaders “don’t steal documents”. To my mind, that nailed it.
If Trump and DeSantis go head to head for the Republican Presidential nomination in 2024, I am here for it ("pass the popcorn").
Loved the closing words from you and Jon Meacham--a humorous, wise and light touch!