Jun 15, 2023·edited Jun 16, 2023Liked by Diane Francis
The potential to see yet another breakdown of the oligarchic monolith, is music to the ears of so many. The west must invest on the cusp of this historic milestone move. Total control always spins out of itself. Not only do you bring clarity to this situation, your graphic maps make it that much easier to visualize.
Thank you once again Diane, for your insights & observations here. In the “print”.
Disintegration of russia, non declared civil war in US...traditional empires cracked...zip leadership...add to that climate catastrophe. Good time to be old...
Your article gives me hope that Russia will collapse. I just wish it would be faster so more lived would not be lost. Russia must be made to pay restitution and Putin must be charged as a war criminal and sent to the Hague.
I was so excited by your analysis of the future of Russia, its breakup. I still feel UKR has been betrayed by the free world in making nearly impossible conditions to fight RU on equal terms. You have pointed out the cracks that are already occurring in the RU regime which gives me great hope that RU collapses sooner rather than later. UKR has taken such losses, such pain, --- to fight for their freedom. Great article Diane - your analysis, I hope, is shared by the USA, UK, And the rest of Europe. They have to kill that snake or never live in peace.
I would think that China would be influential in how rapid these events happen. They could prop up Russia for its benefit, thereby holding it together longer.
After having read Antony Beevor’s ‘Russia-Revolution and Civil War, 1917-1921’ I don’t see how all these indigenous, ethnic entities could escape Russia’s tenacious grip. During the Civil War when there was total chaos and virtually no functioning economy the Bolsheviks’s pure brutality kept these minorities in check. As much as I would love to see the Russian Federation collapse and liberate all these ethnic minorities Russians are too violent and cruel to let it happen. ‘Unless’ the West, or China, supplied the arsenal for them to fight back. I don’t see that happening unfortunately.
Hi, Diane....just a small but not unimportant clarification. You show Russia with 3.4% of global GDP - just a tad below Japan's and a tad above Germany. Furthermore, the data is from 2021 (prior to all the sanctions imposed because of the war), and the compilers urge the reader to treat Russia's data with caution.
Well there are GDPs and then there are GDPs. Country A may be earning a billion dollars from the mining and sale of diamonds, which benefits the country very little because most of the revenues remain in the hands of a handful of people and kept offshore. But its GDP is $1 billion. Country B may also be earning $1 billion but that is derived from a variety of local industries in which a large number of its citizens are engaged and enjoying a hefty trading relationship with the world. Its "product" is constantly reinvested locally and generates higher returns the following year. Country A is risking all on the continued extraction of diamonds and its world price while Country B is diversified and capable of responding quickly to the marketplace.
Nearly 20% of Russia's GDP is earned from the extraction and sale of its natural resources and the revenues are retained in the hands of people like Putin and his greedy oligarchs in offshore accounts, while Japan shows 0% GDP from natural resources and Germany shows merely one tenth of one percent. So there you have it. Russia, as you correctly note, is going nowhere but down and is probably closer to Italy in the GDP scale listing. It couldn't happen to a nicer country. Perhaps violence and subjugation of other, more productive and resourceful nations is a critically important contributor to its economy. How else can we explain that it would focus so much attention on a comparatively tiny sliver of land (Ukraine) while sitting astride one tenth of the world's land area.
Thanks Diane. There are informed commentators who argue the removal of Putin may result in a more severe dictatorship, as you know. Russia has no tradition of democracy. My fear is nuclear weapons will be used as the situation deterioates further which is now very serious, as you tell us.
Thank you for the reference to Janusz Bugajski, and for the informative maps and analysis, to which one might add that the Russian rouble is in a state of collapse. Your whole readership is cheering the RU's breakup, which suggests that neither Prigozhin nor Medvedev or any of that ghastly crew have found you yet. I agree the issue is not whether but when and how, which raises a couple of concerns. First is what happened to the British when General Burgoyne surrendered; when that glorious event/terrible disaster was relayed to Adam Smith with the suggestion that the British empire was now finished, that great man responded with the famous quote: "There's a great deal of ruin in a nation," meaning England might yet recover. So perhaps the current regime, less Putin, can survive defeat in Ukraine. Thus perhaps the "when" in your sentence, i.e., when the Federation breaks into pieces might mean not any time soon, given that the rule of Moscow goes back hundreds of years and who else has the necessary expertise? It’s like when the Allies in 1945 realized they had no option but to retain a great many Nazis in the new German administration, and the contrary example of when the Americans got rid of the Baathists in Iraq, leading to chaos. Secondly, the "how" is extremely concerning regarding possible outbreaks of violence and civil war(s). I don’t know if the Free Nations of Post-Russia Forum are discussing much about violence, but the only recent example I can immediately think of is what happened to Yugoslavia when it broke up into Serbia, Croatia, Herzegovina, Bosnia and more, with horrific violence. In that instance, the nations of Europe failed miserably to prevent ongoing genocidal conflict, and the situation was only resolved when the United States stepped in (movie to watch: A Perfect Day 2015, in its way as hilarious and terrifying as Death of Stalin). My point: what if all these different ethnic groups start killing each other, resulting in waves of refugees into Europe? If the United States is even now a bit iffy about continued support for Ukraine, it’s pretty unlikely it will want to expend treasure trying to control a disorderly violent breakup of the Russian Federation. It seems to me, if we’re hoping for good outcomes, to hope for non-violent regime change in Moscow followed by swift Russian withdrawal from Ukraine; at least in that scenario there is some hope the vast nuclear arsenal will be kept secure, and the different ethnic republics might have a fighting chance of not falling into violence and destruction.
Thank you Diane, what an excellent recap of an unbelievably complex situation. The maps you provided clarity to your readers. I agree the West and/or China could or should become engaged to break-up Russia but I fear it could become so dangerous as to trigger another World War. India is also right in the middle (geographically) of this complex geopolitical quagmire. Let's hope this becomes a bloodless coup, okay, I must be so naive.
The potential to see yet another breakdown of the oligarchic monolith, is music to the ears of so many. The west must invest on the cusp of this historic milestone move. Total control always spins out of itself. Not only do you bring clarity to this situation, your graphic maps make it that much easier to visualize.
Thank you once again Diane, for your insights & observations here. In the “print”.
Disintegration of russia, non declared civil war in US...traditional empires cracked...zip leadership...add to that climate catastrophe. Good time to be old...
A brilliant prognosis
As they say “ from your lips to gods ears”
Norm
Excellent very interesting
Thanks Diane. Fascinating and illuminating facts and hopes for a more peaceful future which we so sorely need right now.
Cathi
just outstanding commentary ....and the dissolution of putins empire cannot happen soon enough
Your article gives me hope that Russia will collapse. I just wish it would be faster so more lived would not be lost. Russia must be made to pay restitution and Putin must be charged as a war criminal and sent to the Hague.
I was so excited by your analysis of the future of Russia, its breakup. I still feel UKR has been betrayed by the free world in making nearly impossible conditions to fight RU on equal terms. You have pointed out the cracks that are already occurring in the RU regime which gives me great hope that RU collapses sooner rather than later. UKR has taken such losses, such pain, --- to fight for their freedom. Great article Diane - your analysis, I hope, is shared by the USA, UK, And the rest of Europe. They have to kill that snake or never live in peace.
I would think that China would be influential in how rapid these events happen. They could prop up Russia for its benefit, thereby holding it together longer.
After having read Antony Beevor’s ‘Russia-Revolution and Civil War, 1917-1921’ I don’t see how all these indigenous, ethnic entities could escape Russia’s tenacious grip. During the Civil War when there was total chaos and virtually no functioning economy the Bolsheviks’s pure brutality kept these minorities in check. As much as I would love to see the Russian Federation collapse and liberate all these ethnic minorities Russians are too violent and cruel to let it happen. ‘Unless’ the West, or China, supplied the arsenal for them to fight back. I don’t see that happening unfortunately.
Hi, Diane....just a small but not unimportant clarification. You show Russia with 3.4% of global GDP - just a tad below Japan's and a tad above Germany. Furthermore, the data is from 2021 (prior to all the sanctions imposed because of the war), and the compilers urge the reader to treat Russia's data with caution.
Well there are GDPs and then there are GDPs. Country A may be earning a billion dollars from the mining and sale of diamonds, which benefits the country very little because most of the revenues remain in the hands of a handful of people and kept offshore. But its GDP is $1 billion. Country B may also be earning $1 billion but that is derived from a variety of local industries in which a large number of its citizens are engaged and enjoying a hefty trading relationship with the world. Its "product" is constantly reinvested locally and generates higher returns the following year. Country A is risking all on the continued extraction of diamonds and its world price while Country B is diversified and capable of responding quickly to the marketplace.
Nearly 20% of Russia's GDP is earned from the extraction and sale of its natural resources and the revenues are retained in the hands of people like Putin and his greedy oligarchs in offshore accounts, while Japan shows 0% GDP from natural resources and Germany shows merely one tenth of one percent. So there you have it. Russia, as you correctly note, is going nowhere but down and is probably closer to Italy in the GDP scale listing. It couldn't happen to a nicer country. Perhaps violence and subjugation of other, more productive and resourceful nations is a critically important contributor to its economy. How else can we explain that it would focus so much attention on a comparatively tiny sliver of land (Ukraine) while sitting astride one tenth of the world's land area.
Thanks Diane. There are informed commentators who argue the removal of Putin may result in a more severe dictatorship, as you know. Russia has no tradition of democracy. My fear is nuclear weapons will be used as the situation deterioates further which is now very serious, as you tell us.
Thank you for the reference to Janusz Bugajski, and for the informative maps and analysis, to which one might add that the Russian rouble is in a state of collapse. Your whole readership is cheering the RU's breakup, which suggests that neither Prigozhin nor Medvedev or any of that ghastly crew have found you yet. I agree the issue is not whether but when and how, which raises a couple of concerns. First is what happened to the British when General Burgoyne surrendered; when that glorious event/terrible disaster was relayed to Adam Smith with the suggestion that the British empire was now finished, that great man responded with the famous quote: "There's a great deal of ruin in a nation," meaning England might yet recover. So perhaps the current regime, less Putin, can survive defeat in Ukraine. Thus perhaps the "when" in your sentence, i.e., when the Federation breaks into pieces might mean not any time soon, given that the rule of Moscow goes back hundreds of years and who else has the necessary expertise? It’s like when the Allies in 1945 realized they had no option but to retain a great many Nazis in the new German administration, and the contrary example of when the Americans got rid of the Baathists in Iraq, leading to chaos. Secondly, the "how" is extremely concerning regarding possible outbreaks of violence and civil war(s). I don’t know if the Free Nations of Post-Russia Forum are discussing much about violence, but the only recent example I can immediately think of is what happened to Yugoslavia when it broke up into Serbia, Croatia, Herzegovina, Bosnia and more, with horrific violence. In that instance, the nations of Europe failed miserably to prevent ongoing genocidal conflict, and the situation was only resolved when the United States stepped in (movie to watch: A Perfect Day 2015, in its way as hilarious and terrifying as Death of Stalin). My point: what if all these different ethnic groups start killing each other, resulting in waves of refugees into Europe? If the United States is even now a bit iffy about continued support for Ukraine, it’s pretty unlikely it will want to expend treasure trying to control a disorderly violent breakup of the Russian Federation. It seems to me, if we’re hoping for good outcomes, to hope for non-violent regime change in Moscow followed by swift Russian withdrawal from Ukraine; at least in that scenario there is some hope the vast nuclear arsenal will be kept secure, and the different ethnic republics might have a fighting chance of not falling into violence and destruction.
Europe dropped the ball on Ukraine , I wager China will beat the West to all those juicy "Stans"
I dream and hope you are correct. That nukes are never launched because of a megalomaniac.
Thank you Diane, what an excellent recap of an unbelievably complex situation. The maps you provided clarity to your readers. I agree the West and/or China could or should become engaged to break-up Russia but I fear it could become so dangerous as to trigger another World War. India is also right in the middle (geographically) of this complex geopolitical quagmire. Let's hope this becomes a bloodless coup, okay, I must be so naive.