Thank you Diane! A straight march into Moscow seemed suicidal; the Wagner group would need to attack on multiple fronts at the same time to be successful. Fortunately, the reality (unnecessary) of the war against Ukraine and the greedy oligarchs is being exposed. Russia's status within the UN must change and be done quickly.
Dianne - thank you for laying out the history so well; the gangsta-style of Russian governing is not new, and these events will likely embolden NATO, Ukraine and Democrats in the U.S.. The reporting has been light so far on the connections between Putin-Trump and Prigozhin come to light; I'm sure the Republican contestants for the presidential nomination are salivating ...
Like you, I remember air raid siren tours being installed, drills to hide under our desks and watching Sputnik in the night sky - when we were children these notions of the cold war, arms race and space race are fun stories we can retell to our grandchildren.
It's perverse to say the least, that what began as Putin wanting to effectively nationalize Prigozhin's Wagner group had the reaction and repercussions it produced. What is not surprising is the reaction of anyone whose assets and cash flow are being threatened - so Prigozhin acted predictably. And pershaps Putin is now wishing Prigozhin had falled out of a hospital window ...
The remarkable thing is not that a caterer-turned contractor/oligarch/billionaire could do what he did so swiftly, but that the 'Putin and his generals' have such a vulnerable grip on Russia and possibly on the Russian people they purport to serve.
It is hard to find fault with anything you have written, Diane. My misgivings are not based on what you are stating but on what remains unstated. For example, it now appears that little p ("p") was involved in deliberations on the replacement of Sergei Shoigu and Gerasimov and now Dumin and Surovkin are being touted in the media. Dumin is a long-time friend of p and his choice as replacement and has also been the head of big P's ("P") praetorian guard. What this bodes for Ukraine is unknown but we know that Surovkin is cut-throat.
What also puzzles me is the way that P presented himself to his russian audience. The one thing that P has cultivated carefully is his Darth Vader image.....a tough guy and supreme ruler......and russians love that in their boss. Now, in one foul swoop, he has changed into a fragile, cuddly teddy bear holding an arrest warrant in his hand. An ARREST WARRANT! When was the last time a dictator cared about protocol and rule of law rather than simply using all the powers of the state to crush a mutiny working its way to the king's throne? Now Erdogan has contacted P offering his support against an insurrectionist mob and China has doubled down on its "strategic partnership" with P's russia. When will we start hearing calls from P apologists claiming that now is the time to negotiate while P feels helpless and has shown himself to be a forgiving rule-of-law type of guy? See what I mean?
We will know, in due course, how this thing plays out and whether it has benefited or hurt russia. But I suspect there will be many bloody days ahead.
It’s a mistake to think Putin is reviled and only stays in power by way of intimidation..to many he is a new Stalin..who is reinvented by older Russians as a hero of good times that never were..because the war is being fought by non Russians more than Russians, civil war is more threat then Putin to many of these “chipmunks”
I'm afraid I disagree with the general view that Prigozhin will likely be killed and Putrid has been humiliated. This all seems like a show for domestic and foreign consumption and the net outcome is that Wagner is now in Belarus, from where they can open a second front to the north of Ukraine, very close to Kyiv. I am also assuming that our military has not been distracted by the hysteria but is prepared for the worst. Putrid doesn't care if we think he was humiliated. He wants to destroy Ukraine and we can think what we want in the meantime.
Quite right, and how hard it is to imagine living in a gangster state - perhaps the Mexicans have a better idea - and how deeply apoliticized and apathetic are the Russians, yet some of them at least in Rostov cheered the Wagner troops. I think whatever popularity Prigozhin has stems from him being the only one with a face. And a voice. I agree Putin is severely weakened and he is also probably ill. I hope the main focus of the State Department and Pentagon right now is security vis-a-vis Russia's nuclear arsenal if the situation in Russia deteriorates further. And onwards and upwards those clever and brave Ukrainians.
Nuclear war is ten feet closer. Desperate people do unthinkable things. Three tactical nukes would destroy Ukraine's offensive. Biden must send those Atacams and F16s now. Better, send a couple of sqadrons of A10s. Also, drones will have to fly much faster, and be much smaller to provide their same level of value.
Thank you Diane...just tweeted your article for hopefully many others to read. What do you think: If only the warring Russian factions of Putin vs Prigozhin vs BelaRusse fight each other into self-destruction, hope for Ukraine would have a greater chance?
Thank you for this excellent review on Putin as a Mafia-like crime boss. You can take the man out of the KGB, but not the KGB out of the man. Isn't he due for
What I find unsaid: our diplomats and pundits say we don't really know what is going on or what to expect in Russia with Putin--what makes us think that Putin knows what he is doing from one moment to the next?
For sure, and quite a few intelligence agency people are saying "something's fishy." But also, the behavior of Prigozhin is bizarre enough to be able to say: You can't make this stuff up.
I think there may be a boss inside the FSB leadership that ran much of the recent show. Prigozhin might have been in touch with them and got the go ahead to march towards Moscow and threaten Putin and his military directors. Prigozhin never showed fear. He was either smiling or being defiant. He played “the man” to Putin’s intimidated bureaucrat, caught on the back foot. No I do not think P and p rigged this whole play between them, but there was someone else in the FSB, who said “Go” then “Stop” to Prigozhin, then “Leave”. I do not think therefore that Prigozhin will be punished or killed. He has someone’s protection. Prigozhin will re-organize for another aggressive and mercenary role.
Thank you Diane! A straight march into Moscow seemed suicidal; the Wagner group would need to attack on multiple fronts at the same time to be successful. Fortunately, the reality (unnecessary) of the war against Ukraine and the greedy oligarchs is being exposed. Russia's status within the UN must change and be done quickly.
Dianne - thank you for laying out the history so well; the gangsta-style of Russian governing is not new, and these events will likely embolden NATO, Ukraine and Democrats in the U.S.. The reporting has been light so far on the connections between Putin-Trump and Prigozhin come to light; I'm sure the Republican contestants for the presidential nomination are salivating ...
Like you, I remember air raid siren tours being installed, drills to hide under our desks and watching Sputnik in the night sky - when we were children these notions of the cold war, arms race and space race are fun stories we can retell to our grandchildren.
It's perverse to say the least, that what began as Putin wanting to effectively nationalize Prigozhin's Wagner group had the reaction and repercussions it produced. What is not surprising is the reaction of anyone whose assets and cash flow are being threatened - so Prigozhin acted predictably. And pershaps Putin is now wishing Prigozhin had falled out of a hospital window ...
The remarkable thing is not that a caterer-turned contractor/oligarch/billionaire could do what he did so swiftly, but that the 'Putin and his generals' have such a vulnerable grip on Russia and possibly on the Russian people they purport to serve.
It may not be another Russian Revolution, but I expect Navalny folloeers to be making noises and Putin to slip out the back door. I posted a column on this on the weekend : E A C L N R U; another Russian revolution https://markmusing.substack.com/p/e-a-c-l-n-r-u-another-russian-revolution
Keep up the great work!
Cheers,
Mark
It is hard to find fault with anything you have written, Diane. My misgivings are not based on what you are stating but on what remains unstated. For example, it now appears that little p ("p") was involved in deliberations on the replacement of Sergei Shoigu and Gerasimov and now Dumin and Surovkin are being touted in the media. Dumin is a long-time friend of p and his choice as replacement and has also been the head of big P's ("P") praetorian guard. What this bodes for Ukraine is unknown but we know that Surovkin is cut-throat.
What also puzzles me is the way that P presented himself to his russian audience. The one thing that P has cultivated carefully is his Darth Vader image.....a tough guy and supreme ruler......and russians love that in their boss. Now, in one foul swoop, he has changed into a fragile, cuddly teddy bear holding an arrest warrant in his hand. An ARREST WARRANT! When was the last time a dictator cared about protocol and rule of law rather than simply using all the powers of the state to crush a mutiny working its way to the king's throne? Now Erdogan has contacted P offering his support against an insurrectionist mob and China has doubled down on its "strategic partnership" with P's russia. When will we start hearing calls from P apologists claiming that now is the time to negotiate while P feels helpless and has shown himself to be a forgiving rule-of-law type of guy? See what I mean?
We will know, in due course, how this thing plays out and whether it has benefited or hurt russia. But I suspect there will be many bloody days ahead.
It’s a mistake to think Putin is reviled and only stays in power by way of intimidation..to many he is a new Stalin..who is reinvented by older Russians as a hero of good times that never were..because the war is being fought by non Russians more than Russians, civil war is more threat then Putin to many of these “chipmunks”
Great article Diane
Thanks for clarity of thought on what should become Francis ford Coppola s next mob family story
Excellent thank you
I'm afraid I disagree with the general view that Prigozhin will likely be killed and Putrid has been humiliated. This all seems like a show for domestic and foreign consumption and the net outcome is that Wagner is now in Belarus, from where they can open a second front to the north of Ukraine, very close to Kyiv. I am also assuming that our military has not been distracted by the hysteria but is prepared for the worst. Putrid doesn't care if we think he was humiliated. He wants to destroy Ukraine and we can think what we want in the meantime.
Quite right, and how hard it is to imagine living in a gangster state - perhaps the Mexicans have a better idea - and how deeply apoliticized and apathetic are the Russians, yet some of them at least in Rostov cheered the Wagner troops. I think whatever popularity Prigozhin has stems from him being the only one with a face. And a voice. I agree Putin is severely weakened and he is also probably ill. I hope the main focus of the State Department and Pentagon right now is security vis-a-vis Russia's nuclear arsenal if the situation in Russia deteriorates further. And onwards and upwards those clever and brave Ukrainians.
outstanding coverage...i certainly hope that putin is finished .......what is going on behind the scenes is anybodys guess ......
Nuclear war is ten feet closer. Desperate people do unthinkable things. Three tactical nukes would destroy Ukraine's offensive. Biden must send those Atacams and F16s now. Better, send a couple of sqadrons of A10s. Also, drones will have to fly much faster, and be much smaller to provide their same level of value.
Thank you Diane...just tweeted your article for hopefully many others to read. What do you think: If only the warring Russian factions of Putin vs Prigozhin vs BelaRusse fight each other into self-destruction, hope for Ukraine would have a greater chance?
Thank you for this excellent review on Putin as a Mafia-like crime boss. You can take the man out of the KGB, but not the KGB out of the man. Isn't he due for
re-election in 2024? Going to
be a momentous year.
What I find unsaid: our diplomats and pundits say we don't really know what is going on or what to expect in Russia with Putin--what makes us think that Putin knows what he is doing from one moment to the next?
Excellent!!!!
For sure, and quite a few intelligence agency people are saying "something's fishy." But also, the behavior of Prigozhin is bizarre enough to be able to say: You can't make this stuff up.
I think there may be a boss inside the FSB leadership that ran much of the recent show. Prigozhin might have been in touch with them and got the go ahead to march towards Moscow and threaten Putin and his military directors. Prigozhin never showed fear. He was either smiling or being defiant. He played “the man” to Putin’s intimidated bureaucrat, caught on the back foot. No I do not think P and p rigged this whole play between them, but there was someone else in the FSB, who said “Go” then “Stop” to Prigozhin, then “Leave”. I do not think therefore that Prigozhin will be punished or killed. He has someone’s protection. Prigozhin will re-organize for another aggressive and mercenary role.