Trump's 2026

January 5, 2025

Donald Trump outdid himself and brought in the new year by threatening Iran with military action on January 2, then hours later, on January 3, he attacked Venezuela and kidnapped its leader. He held a triumphant press conference to describe in detail the abduction of President Nicolas Maduro and his First Lady. He said the two were en route in handcuffs to New York City to face drug trafficking charges and that America will run the country, rebuild its oil industry, and govern until a “fair and just transition could take place” on behalf of its citizens. But oil, drug interdiction, power, and wealth are the prizes here, not justice and democracy. In 2026, Trump will continue to upend geopolitics, create uncertainty, and cast a chill across the entire Western Hemisphere and global economy. He is wildly unpredictable, “liberates” the downtrodden selectively, and abrogates international laws with ease. He’s also hypocritical, attacking two of Putin’s oil allies to supposedly help their people while giving Russia free rein to ravage Ukrainians and Europeans in return for the promise of Siberian riches.

Trump’s busy New Year weekend relegated most 2026 prognostications to the dustbin. This is unsettling because his actions are so encompassing and powerful that everyone and every country, big or small, knows that it will eventually be sideswiped. Take his targets, oil-rich Venezuela and Iran: China buys virtually all of its oil from them, which means America’s planned takeover of Venezuela’s oil fields and harassment of Iran will enhance Trump’s leverage over Beijing. Such an acquisition would also make America less dependent on Saudi Arabia or Canada for oil, reducing their leverage.

Trump’s “freelancing” has also damaged America’s traditional military allies in Europe, Asia, the Americas, and beyond. All are on edge, economically, legally, and militarily. But the most chilling effects are felt among America’s hemispheric neighbors. Colombia, Mexico, and Cuba are next on his drug interdiction and military hit list, and all three know it. Each country is steeply and dangerously captive to cartels, criminals, and corruption. In addition, Trump is interested in acquiring resource-rich Canada and Greenland, as well as logistically important Panama and Cuba.

Given the weekend’s events, here are more predictions as to what an emboldened Donald Trump will do in 2026 and beyond.

• Trump’s Venezuela takeover and threats against Iran are blows to Russia’s global alliance and potentially to its oil income. One Russian spokesman called it a “slap in the face”. This benefits Ukraine. Notably, a triumphant Trump declared his frustration with Russia at the Venezuela press conference over his continued war in Ukraine. “I’m not thrilled with Putin. He’s killing too many people,” Trump said. The best-case scenario is that Trump will demand that Putin agree to a ceasefire, and America will commit to providing tough security guarantees for Ukraine in conjunction with Europe. Trump already has a minerals deal with Ukraine, and Americans will participate in its reconstruction.

• The Monroe Doctrine of 1823 was a regional hegemony or sphere of influence document that has been dubbed the “Donroe Doctrine“. Decades ago, America declared itself the sheriff across the hemisphere, and there have been dozens of US-backed interventions. Trump upholds the spirit of this policy, but this will be bumpy to enforce, given Russian and Chinese interests that are embedded across Latin America, as well as the existence of entrenched, militarized, and obscenely wealthy drug cartels. The Doctrine will be the policy underpinning for all of America’s relationships in the hemisphere — from Greenland and Canada to Argentina.

• Canada and Mexico will not have a trilateral free trade deal with the US, but will have to negotiate trade bilaterally with Washington based on America’s criteria. Trump’s tariff policies replaced the “three amigos” relationship, and the horse-trading will be tougher.

• Mexico will be “invaded” this year by the US military and anti-terrorist troops, whether it likes it or not. The country’s governments, leaders, courts, police, and military have failed to stop rampant trafficking, fentanyl production, and border crime. The spillover has damaged the United States itself, and American military forces will be sent to work with Mexico to cripple its cartels.

• Peaceful, pliant, and dependent Canada has been cited for annexation by Trump, but there’s no political interest in either country in doing so. However, Trump is a master at deploying leverage in negotiations and recently gave Canada an informal ultimatum: Pay US$61 billion toward building its share of the cost of America’s proposed “golden dome” – an unaffordable amount – or join the United States politically and pay nothing. Such leverage, plus tariffs, will be used to convince Canada to merge fully or partially. Canada is important because it has as much oil as Saudi Arabia or Venezuela, as much uranium as Kazakhstan, as much potash as Russia, plus water, farmland, and critical minerals and other resources. However, outright annexation is undesirable to Canadians who don’t want America’s crime rates, gun violence, and inadequate health care. Besides that, there’s no reason to politically merge because much of Canada’s economy is already American-owned, trade is open, and the two countries are compatible. They are one another’s biggest customers, suppliers, and investors, but Trump’s ego and ambition have no bounds.

• Trump has rolled out a new “Noriega-Maduro Doctrine” to bypass international laws. The US has snubbed its nose at the International Criminal Court for years, as well as the United Nations and trade rules. Now, its legal system will supersede the rest and, in the future, will be used to investigate, charge, try, enforce, and apprehend foreign heads of state, politicians, businessmen, or criminals. The precedent was set in 1990 when a US court charged Panamanian dictator Manuel Noriega with drug trafficking. He was arrested there and flown to the US, where he was convicted in court and sentenced to 40 years in prison. This extra-territorial precedent is profound and was applied in the case of Maduro, who was convicted in a US court in absentia and then seized. This essentially imposes US laws abroad and “legalizes” arrests in any jurisdiction, abductions, and incarcerations.

• American military intervention in the hemisphere in 2026 and beyond is a given and will lead to violence and anti-American sentiment. This will cause more problems, mitigate economic cooperation, and possibly backfire. Worse, American “boots on the ground” will inevitably lead to lengthy and costly quagmires, as happened in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Vietnam. This will create a political backlash in the United States.

• Last year, Trump established America’s overriding economic power through the imposition of tariffs. This changed the global economy profoundly, and Washington now has the power to punish or reward trading partners.

• America is the world’s technology giant and will remain that way. China is the only rival thus far, but any attempts to reduce Silicon Valley’s reach or America’s space program will be prevented because both are matters of national priority.

• America will level the trade playing field. Thus far, China has outsmarted America, Europe, and Russia by quietly building and controlling key portions of the 21st-century economy. These “chokeholds” are being addressed by Trump, unwound, or bypassed, but they still dominate important sea lanes, ports, and the renewable energy sector worldwide. For years, Western policymakers reassured themselves that their system of hard work, innovation, marketing, tariffs, tech bans, and diplomatic pressure would win over communism or other competing systems. But China anticipated and bypassed every move through its system of strategic state capitalism. From ports to power grids, from telecoms to solar panels, from minerals to microchips, Beijing has quietly built and controls the chokepoints of the 21st‑century economy — and now controls the levers. This will be challenged and unravelled by Washington.

• America’s resource supremacy is a matter of national security. The Venezuelan deal involves as many oil reserves as Canada’s, Saudi Arabia’s, or Russia’s, making the US, on paper, the world’s undisputed energy superpower. However, it will take ten years or more to rebuild Venezuela’s oil production infrastructure and produce commercial quantities of oil. Trump boasted that American oil giants will do this in record time, but he’s wrong. Trump’s America will prioritize partnerships with nations that have critical minerals, fossil fuels, and other rare commodities.

• Russia heads toward bankruptcy, this year or next. Its military power has been degraded dramatically by Ukraine, and the war is ruining its economy. Soaring military expenditures and dropping income from oil and commodities are undermining the country. When a meltdown happens, the Russian Federation will dissolve into dozens of entities, as did the Soviet Union at the conclusion of its unsuccessful war in Afghanistan in 1991. Europe, America, and Muslim countries will be able to align with and nurture client states. China will grab back Manchuria, which includes Vladivostok, Arctic ports, as well as the Sakhalin Islands.

• Toppling Iran’s regime and its terrorist network will remain a priority for the US, Israel, Turkey, Europe, and the wealthy Arab oil nations to bring about peace in the Middle East and remove Russian influence in the region.

• The European Union and Britain will build a strong military with Ukraine to fend off Russia and replace America’s protection. This is also needed to stop floods of migrants from North Africa and the Middle East, and to create a European Silicon Valley by building technology and a strong military-industrial base. Ukraine is key to Europe’s long-term security and prosperity.

• Japan and South Korea will remain powerhouses and be important to America. Both will decide this year to become nuclear powers to keep North Korea, Russia, and China at bay.

• China will concentrate on cultivating trade and cooperation with America and Europe, not Russia. The same applies to India and developing nations in Africa.

Unfortunately, Trump will continue to believe that throwing around America’s weight is enough. But he no sooner bragged that America would run Venezuela with the help of Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez Gomez, than she took to the airwaves and completely rejected American involvement in running the country. This pushback portends a possible Venezuelan-Vietnam quagmire, not a flag-waving parade by Venezuelans celebrating America’s takeover. Trump is the world’s Hegemon, but he cannot boss around nation-states as though they were Republican congressmen seeking re-election.

Clearly, the year 2026 marks the dawn of a new world order, as proposed by Trump’s America. But this, like others, won’t last. Trump’s biggest flaw is that he rejects allies, disdains the rest of the world, and believes he’s always right. Such beliefs will be counterproductive. As Rudyard Kipling observed: “For the strength of the Pack is the Wolf, and the strength of the Wolf is the Pack.”