If only.......if only.......Trump moved quickly to put a democratic Venezuelan politician in place and invite U.S. and other friendly countries to "invest" in the restoration of Venezuela's pre-Maduro economy his one Venezuela venture would suffice to bring the rest of South and Central America "in (a constructive) line".
About a third of Venezuela's population left the country under Maduro, and perhaps an equivalent number stayed, though unhappy and impoverished. Many, if not most, of these would have greeted a change of regime just as the Ukrainians welcomed the Germans after the short but bloody occupation by the Soviet Union via the Molotov-Ribbentrop partition.
Both the U.S. and Venezuela would benefit greatly, and Venezuelans would benefit from a return to their former freedoms. At the same time, the other strongmen or ineffective leaders in the southern hemisphere would have taken note and rushed to cooperate with the U.S. That was the meaning of Reagan's "shining city on the hill".....building alliances while lending strength and support to populations brutalized by their own governments.
Those distinctions, I'm afraid, are not well accepted by Trump or the MAGA community, and this move into Venezuela may blow up with disastrous consequences for the U.S.
Trump’s other problem is that he’s 79 years old and in poor health. He can’t boss around the grim reaper either. When he goes MAGA will break into bickering constituent pieces. There will be a vacuum to fill. Who will fill it? Not JD Vance, I expect…
Vance will only be president if it happens before the end of Trump's term, otherwise he is almost unelectable with a personality of a turnip, I predict that is what will happen, Trump is ill and old.
Specifically, his energy level has diminished, as has his capacity to grasp new concepts and remember facts. Given the relatively fast-moving form of dementia (FTD) he most likely suffers from, I expect he'll soon dodder into such public breakdowns as to invite, or even force, those around him to invoke the 25th amendment. And what then? Vance may be charmless, but he also seems clever and manipulative. I wonder if he has a functional conscience or is purely transactiona. like the POTUS. What a fiasco to remove one president for failing health and the next via impeachment.
tRUMP and his entire sycophant cabinet/admin team, including likely, compliant successor, JD Vance are (in my view) mere vessels though whom the hyper wealthy and tech-heavy cabal behind Project 2025, impose their hoarding greed and legislative will. “By the people, for the people”… my ass.
It seems likely that many of the scenarios you present will continue and develop in the directions you predict. And in many ways this might prove to be for the better. The wild card, however, is Mr. Trump (and certain of his allies and minions all of whom are as warped and crazed as the Orange Manchild himself). He is liable to do anything that will soothe his increasingly fragile and paranoid ego, as well as fail to understand much less accept the advice of more global and strategic thinkers. Not to mention those persons who possess common decency. So getting rid of him ASAP is a priority, don't you think?
"Canada is important because it has as much oil as Saudi Arabia or Venezuela, as much uranium as Kazakhstan, as much potash as Russia" Exactly and thus Trump's frustration in trying to get Canada in sharing in the hemisphere's defense. Canada needs to overcome its Drill Baby Phobia.
Ms. Francis continues to deliver succinct summaries of “where we stand, and how we got here”. Sadly, her bold, terrifying predictions offered, are all too realistic.
It is said that dynasties usually last ~250 years, or so. How timely for tRUMPism to now be reaching its peak level of self-inflicted harm upon their nation. One and all can only hope that post-tRUMP America may rediscover a moral compass, and an appreciation for their Constitution, “… and the Republic for which it stands”.
Your comment about Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez Gomez doesn’t appear to be aging well but the rest of your assessment and predictions look solid. Hopefully some wars will end and no new ones begun.
I’m still waiting for the other shoe to drop after Trump reclaimed Venezuelan oil assets like they were America’s all along. If China has major contracts in place for the production and purchase of these resources are they not going to be a wee bit ….annoyed? One can only guess what was said during Maduro’s meeting with Chinese officials shortly before the event happened. Was he warned or insured that he was safe? China never tips their hand and Trump is the wild card of wild cards so the world waits.
Excellent recap and insight into Trump's America at this point in history.
I believe that SECURITY (of energy, food, water, safety, currency, economy and freedom of speech) is the most important thing for people as we pass the quarter mark of the 21st Century, and Trump/America's ideology (despite its rough edges) is far more appealing than China's, something that was missing here.
While the threats to America from Mexico and Latin America are certainly the drugs, immigration and China/Russia/Iran influence, the threat from "peaceful, pliant, and dependent Canada" is the control the CCP continue to have over its Liberal government, elections and nearly 2 million Chinese diaspora living there.
America won't tolerate this much longer and Canada needs to grow up and awaken to this reality before its too late.
A brilliant summary of things as they are and as they are likely to be. I am surprised that the US military might invade Mexico but I guess Trump is on a roll and he enjoys throwing his weight around so anything is possible.
If only.......if only.......Trump moved quickly to put a democratic Venezuelan politician in place and invite U.S. and other friendly countries to "invest" in the restoration of Venezuela's pre-Maduro economy his one Venezuela venture would suffice to bring the rest of South and Central America "in (a constructive) line".
About a third of Venezuela's population left the country under Maduro, and perhaps an equivalent number stayed, though unhappy and impoverished. Many, if not most, of these would have greeted a change of regime just as the Ukrainians welcomed the Germans after the short but bloody occupation by the Soviet Union via the Molotov-Ribbentrop partition.
Both the U.S. and Venezuela would benefit greatly, and Venezuelans would benefit from a return to their former freedoms. At the same time, the other strongmen or ineffective leaders in the southern hemisphere would have taken note and rushed to cooperate with the U.S. That was the meaning of Reagan's "shining city on the hill".....building alliances while lending strength and support to populations brutalized by their own governments.
Those distinctions, I'm afraid, are not well accepted by Trump or the MAGA community, and this move into Venezuela may blow up with disastrous consequences for the U.S.
Superb analysis. Very thought provoking.
Trump’s other problem is that he’s 79 years old and in poor health. He can’t boss around the grim reaper either. When he goes MAGA will break into bickering constituent pieces. There will be a vacuum to fill. Who will fill it? Not JD Vance, I expect…
Vance will only be president if it happens before the end of Trump's term, otherwise he is almost unelectable with a personality of a turnip, I predict that is what will happen, Trump is ill and old.
Specifically, his energy level has diminished, as has his capacity to grasp new concepts and remember facts. Given the relatively fast-moving form of dementia (FTD) he most likely suffers from, I expect he'll soon dodder into such public breakdowns as to invite, or even force, those around him to invoke the 25th amendment. And what then? Vance may be charmless, but he also seems clever and manipulative. I wonder if he has a functional conscience or is purely transactiona. like the POTUS. What a fiasco to remove one president for failing health and the next via impeachment.
tRUMP and his entire sycophant cabinet/admin team, including likely, compliant successor, JD Vance are (in my view) mere vessels though whom the hyper wealthy and tech-heavy cabal behind Project 2025, impose their hoarding greed and legislative will. “By the people, for the people”… my ass.
It seems likely that many of the scenarios you present will continue and develop in the directions you predict. And in many ways this might prove to be for the better. The wild card, however, is Mr. Trump (and certain of his allies and minions all of whom are as warped and crazed as the Orange Manchild himself). He is liable to do anything that will soothe his increasingly fragile and paranoid ego, as well as fail to understand much less accept the advice of more global and strategic thinkers. Not to mention those persons who possess common decency. So getting rid of him ASAP is a priority, don't you think?
Not forgetting Trump sent $40 billion to Argentina. What a nightmare 2026 looks like it will be.
"Canada is important because it has as much oil as Saudi Arabia or Venezuela, as much uranium as Kazakhstan, as much potash as Russia" Exactly and thus Trump's frustration in trying to get Canada in sharing in the hemisphere's defense. Canada needs to overcome its Drill Baby Phobia.
An extremely insightful column. Who knew 5 years ago what the world would look like now and what will it look like 5 years from now?
Ms. Francis continues to deliver succinct summaries of “where we stand, and how we got here”. Sadly, her bold, terrifying predictions offered, are all too realistic.
It is said that dynasties usually last ~250 years, or so. How timely for tRUMPism to now be reaching its peak level of self-inflicted harm upon their nation. One and all can only hope that post-tRUMP America may rediscover a moral compass, and an appreciation for their Constitution, “… and the Republic for which it stands”.
Diane Francis, is an excellent writer and gets right to the point of world events.
Diane's in depth reporting is exceptional.
Your comment about Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez Gomez doesn’t appear to be aging well but the rest of your assessment and predictions look solid. Hopefully some wars will end and no new ones begun.
not sure what to think, lots of ambivalence here.
I’m still waiting for the other shoe to drop after Trump reclaimed Venezuelan oil assets like they were America’s all along. If China has major contracts in place for the production and purchase of these resources are they not going to be a wee bit ….annoyed? One can only guess what was said during Maduro’s meeting with Chinese officials shortly before the event happened. Was he warned or insured that he was safe? China never tips their hand and Trump is the wild card of wild cards so the world waits.
Excellent recap and insight into Trump's America at this point in history.
I believe that SECURITY (of energy, food, water, safety, currency, economy and freedom of speech) is the most important thing for people as we pass the quarter mark of the 21st Century, and Trump/America's ideology (despite its rough edges) is far more appealing than China's, something that was missing here.
While the threats to America from Mexico and Latin America are certainly the drugs, immigration and China/Russia/Iran influence, the threat from "peaceful, pliant, and dependent Canada" is the control the CCP continue to have over its Liberal government, elections and nearly 2 million Chinese diaspora living there.
America won't tolerate this much longer and Canada needs to grow up and awaken to this reality before its too late.
Excellent analysis...
Former Canadian Prime Minister Chretien once said that "a week in politics is a long time."
2025 has certainly proved the point, weekly. 2026 will be even longer and more interesting.
Thanks for sketching some scenarios for us as a guideline. The new world order is taking shape as we speak.
A brilliant summary of things as they are and as they are likely to be. I am surprised that the US military might invade Mexico but I guess Trump is on a roll and he enjoys throwing his weight around so anything is possible.