Ukraine and Goliath
May 25, 2023
Ukraine’s counteroffensive is underway. President Volodymyr Zelensky just completed a charm offensive by meeting leaders in Britain, Germany, France, Italy, Brussels, the Vatican, Jeddah, and the G7 plus India in Hiroshima. Each time, he garnered support and collected tens of billions of dollars’ worth of pledges for humanitarian aid and military hardware. Most importantly, he has reprogrammed the world’s “software” and world opinion shifts dramatically against Russia and in favor of Ukraine. Europe now provides weapons that America has been hesitant to send. A majority of UN members insist that Russia leave Ukraine immediately. A cascade of Global South leaders -- from China, Saudi Arabia, South Africa to India – offer to mediate a solution. And militarily, Ukraine has launched an incremental counteroffensive, not a Blitzkreig. This is how a small and clever nation, with a sling shot and good aim, can and will slay an inflexible colossus.
The tedious and slow slaughter in Bakhmut, and a recent raid inside Russia in Belgorod, may not be knock-out punches but have shredded the Kremlin’s narrative about its military greatness and patriotism. Bakmuht is now synonymous on Moscow’s streets with defeat and dissension among the ranks. The insanity of fighting over a town of 70,000 without strategic importance has grievously harmed Russia’s reputation and forces. Casualties are horrific on both sides, but Bakhmut has decimated the Wagner Group mercenaries due to fierce fighting by Ukrainians and also due to sabotage by rival Russian generals who withheld ammunition to punish their critical and ambitious boss Evgeny Prigozhin. This rivalry was publicized across Russian social media channels and has demoralized troops and undermined Putin and the Kremlin.
For Ukraine, Bakhmut has been a “win” for other reasons. Russia has been preoccupied and pinned down there for nine months. During this time, Kyiv has acquired a fearsome arsenal and is creating what will be history’s first digitized, cyber, and networked armed force. Thousands of drone pilots have been trained to rain down bombs on Russian troops and artillery, and Ukraine has more than 1,500 tanks and armored vehicles plus medium and long range artillery.
On May 21, Russia declared it controlled Bakhmut, a debatable statement designed to steal the limelight from Zelensky’s triumphant tour of capitals. Putin even publicly congratulated his military for its “victory”. Then hours later, pro-Ukrainian Russian partisans with 13 vehicles grabbed headlines by invading Russia’s Belgorod region and capturing 35 square kilometers of territory in a matter of hours. Three villages were occupied and nine more evacuated and two anti-Kremlin groups – the Russian Volunteer Corps (RVC) and Freedom of Russia Legion – claimed responsibility. Moscow blamed Kyiv.
Belgorod may be short-lived but represents another “win” for Ukraine, along with many other attacks inside Russia that have destroyed infrastructure, ammo depots, ships, railways, and logistical hubs. These assaults amplify Russia’s military incompetence and highlight the fact that there is internal collaboration by partisans. They also force the deployment of troops away from major battle stations and divert attention. Such bite-sized breaches inside Russia’s border is a counteroffensive strategy that Russian blogger Igor Girkin predicted months ago. And Wagner’s Prigozhin commented that Belgorod proved how useless Russia’s generals are.
Two days later, on May 23, Russia insisted the insurgency was Ukrainian-led, was over, and that 70 attackers had been killed. None of this was unconfirmed by press reports and skirmishes have continued, along with drone attacks on the region. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar said bluntly: "We are not waging war on foreign territories” and an official in the Presidential Office wryly observed that “the only driving political force in a totalitarian country of tightened screws is always an armed guerrilla movement.”
The significance of Belgorod is that Russia now faces a “multi-domain” security threat. Stephen Horrell, non-resident senior fellow of Transatlantic Defense and Security at the Center for European Policy Analysis, told Newsweek that attacks by such groups “fit hand in glove with the shaping operations necessary to make Ukraine's counteroffensive successful. This goes along with other deep strikes we are starting to see. This also seems more substantial than other strikes or raids across the border—taking and holding multiple villages, the weight of effort with combat vehicles and such. The more places Russia has to worry about and devote troops to, the more likely a breakthrough [will occur] at one or more counteroffensive sites.”
The next six months will determine the war’s outcome and Ukraine has more strategic surprises up its sleeve. Besides creating a drone force, it will have a decent air force of F-16s in operation by mid-summer to protect its skies and bomb soldiers along the “Maginot Line” that Russia’s plodding generals have built which consists of miles of trenches and dragon’s teeth. Kyiv knows that smart ideas, not blunt force warfare, will win the day.
Moscow also suffered a major technological setback on May 4 when the U.S. Patriot system intercepted a Kinzhal hypersonic missile. Moscow had, for years, boasted that its Kinzhals, which are nuclear-capable and travel at up to 10 times' the speed of sound, were unstoppable. Worse for the Kremlin, on May 16 Russia launched a “saturation attack” including several Kinzhals, other missiles, and drones, and all were destroyed by the Patriot system. This has singlehandedly changed the nuclear risk calculus going forward globally, and also represents a triumph for the Pentagon. Ukraine has only one Patriot system so far, but Taiwan has 50 Patriot systems.
In addition, the Europeans are shipping sophisticated air defense systems to blanket the country and liberate Ukrainians from constant bombardment. Besides saving lives, this no-fly zone will also shield Ukraine’s military-industrial complex so that it can swing fully into gear and produce enough missiles, drones, and ammunition to expel Russia from its territory and keep it away permanently.
Once Ukraine has a bigger air force, it will be able to destroy Russian positions, warships, air bases, and Putin’s prospects. Ukraine has requested 200 F-16s (it has 41 MIG fighter jets) and America finally gave owners permission to give them to Kyiv. Already, the Netherlands, Denmark, Belgium, and Norway have committed to supplying 125 and dozens may be fully operational in a few weeks because Ukrainian pilots have been secretly training on them for months. In addition, Ukraine now has many trained tank brigades. As Ben Hodges, retired American general, commented “I would really hate to be a Russian private sitting in a trench right now, waiting for all this to start.”
But it’s already started. Bakhmut won time; Belgorod has rattled the enemy; and Ukraine’s brains and bravery will win the war.
From your lips to God's ear. Bravo for a wonderfully upbeat summary of Ukraine's current and prospective victories. But it is equally vital for Ukraine to continue its momentum of success into the post-war period. History is witness to the frequency by which bravery and victory in war results in peace-time defeat because soldiers and civilians believe that their work is completed. But the difficult (though bloodless) part of the nation's destiny will have only begun.
This war would never have happened if Ukrainians - in the course of the last 3 decades -had united and focused their attention on a political and business elite that was "privatizing" the nation's resources and allowing rampant corruption and treasonous behavior to handicap its development and shape its destiny. With its many blessings of incredibly rich resources and highly educated and talented population, Ukraine should have become an economic giant and a military power that even Russia would have feared to challenge. Instead it remained the "poor man" of Europe and a hapless "chump" surviving on generous dollops of loans and charities and the meager earnings of broken families working abroad.
Ukraine has now been given a "second chance" for a new beginning. And the best way to start is by looking closely at its business elite - especially oligarchs - as well as current and former public officials at all levels (especially in the judiciary) to determine where and how they have earned their assets . If it becomes obvious that there is no possible explanation for their wealth other than through dishonest and illegal schemes, than - at the minimum - the stolen assets should be returned to the Treasury, and those individuals forever banned from positions of influence in Ukraine. There are a great many young people who have demonstrated their maturity, integrity, and readiness to replace those ancient , Soviet dinosaurs.
Ukrainians may have saved their nation, now they have to ensure its healthy growth.
“Once Ukraine has a bigger airforce”..absolute key..and that depends on US political situation which is uncertain..while training has commenced and other NATO countries are inclined to supply ..everything stands on US..and for Ukraine- will the world sell them out in rush to impose a “peace” that will be but a pause for Russia to rearm and renew the genocide? For this war to end, Russians need turn on Putin..I doubt it can or will happen..kill him.