I'm not an expert, but I distrust Russia totally, even to obey an armistice designed and signed in China. I'd assume a full military defeat with no way back into the civilized world for Putin will be necessary and US and it's allies need to arm Ukraine fully and the quicker the better. If a China solution works out, great, but I wouldn't count on it.
This is not a bipolar world only a superpower duopoly. By "US" it means Europe, India, Japan, S.Korea and others while China is on its own and has the leverage, and motivation, to lean on Russia to stop. It cannot make it happen, but will isolate Russia thoroughly and stop the carnage for the time being. The American alliance is gigantic and represents the majority of the global econ. the Chinese have to deal with their issues themselves and may "liberalize". "Chip parity" is not the objective, but the ability to tap into technology to make cars, refrigerators and so on. It also may eliminate the necessity, it believes, of invading Taiwan because it's the chip capital of the world. That invasion makes no sense as China observes given the enormous alliance that Biden's built out of NATO and the Euros plus the Quad in Asia. This is not Chamberlain. THis is really really smart geopolitical chess.
Our power comes from our markets created by innovation, finance, and a well educated people.
Pride in our work, loyalty to god, family, country - most of it thrown out for a greater profit by multi nationals who preach that a global economy is good for consumers (buying less quality not lasting long) The Globalists are bandits supported by indoctrinated media hungry for their ad dollars so that they can survive.
Globalists sent their production equipment, intellectual property, and suppliers to China along with some of their staff to teach the Chinese how to use it. They paid 100% of the cost of new plants and received only 49% ownership just to save 30% on their product purchase price. They didn’t invest in new tech at home to achieve the same 30%.
To make even more the Globalists gave their customer lists to China so that shipping would be factory direct. They were surprised when the Chinese took over direct selling – several Globalists folded.
China held out a huge market potential and the Globalists sold out their countrymen for only a chance at it.
If the Globalists didn’t give the IP, then China bought two of the same product, reverse engineered one and figured out how to use the other one.
The Chinese haven’t kept their word to the Globalists. Why do we think they will change for world security?
Easy answer – they want the Russian energy fields.
good comments. China is in trouble and its appetite for chips is behind the Taiwan nonsense and will buy them onside. they won't have full access and certainly not for defense purposes. Also, china's new deal with Saudi Arabia and emirates guarantees them oil security even if they dump Russia as part of this deal.
I agree - chips are core. But I think a Russian energy field with direct pipe access would be bigger and more secure for them. If Putin uses tactical nukes his country will fall apart and China will absorb some of it.
So Stephen Kotkin says: “The solution to the war is the US and China getting together to IMPOSE A SOLUTION on each side.” What is this? Kotkin is an academic who wrote a magisterial biography of Stalin, but he is not an expert on Ukraine; that would be Timothy Snyder of Harvard. I can guess what Synder would say, and I can also guess what the Ukrainians would say, not to mention the Poles, Germans, Swedes, etc. The US has already promised multiple times - mostly Anthony Blinken but also the President - the US will not do anything of the sort. I notice that Yellen’s long speech did not contain the word Taiwan, which is quite an omission. Kotkin then says China won’t ‘give up’ Russia unless it gets technology transfer - from the US, and then lo and behold: “China GIVES PEACE to Europe.” Really, this is pretty outrageous. So the Americans cut a deal with the Chinese for the thirty pieces of silver, i.e., top-end semi-conductors which are possibly the most valuable items in the world today (the Chinese already have the basic stuff ) - and in return China 'gives the gift of peace' not to Ukraine but to Europe. How? By what possible threat or incentive could Putin be persuaded, considering his life would be at stake. Respectfully, I suggest Stephen Kotkin is speculating beyond his pay grade.
What bothers me is: 1. This is only a great solution for China which is an authoritarian state trying hard to become a totalitarian state, with interests implacably opposed to the US and free world 2. It treats the world, especially Ukraine and Europe, as pieces on the superpower game board; why not include India then we would have a tripartite world just like in 1984 3. It hugely overpays China for its aid in leaning on Russia, by offering it 'chip parity' which is pretty much the same thing as offering nuclear parity 4. It presumes without evidence that China actually. has the heft to control the Kremlin. This reminds me horribly of Neville Chamberlain in 1938 buying (as he thought) 'peace in our time' in return for Czechoslovakia's subjugation.
South Korea has peace thanks to a boatload of money from the US plus US boots on the ground. The same is needed for Taiwan and now Ukraine. This will implode Russia and allow China to consummate its own invasion of the Stans
wow ....lets hope something comes of all this ....problem is that putin is a pathological liar .....any peace agreement must be coupled with ironclad guarantees
A DMZ in Ukraine was determined by Russia in 2014 after Ukrainians drove out pitons odious Proxy President. In Korea DMZ was where fighting stalled or stopped and ukraines new DMZ with Russia will be on Ukraines terms
This is not about divvying up Ukraine. I'm convinced it will regain all its 2014 land then this deal will happen. As for Korea, the reality is that until Russians get their act together or break up into pieces they will remain a bigger version of "North Korea". Cannot stop that because they are defended with nukes
Dear Diane...I love you dearly.....your blogs are always provocative and inspiring. But if this is not about divvying up Ukraine, then where does Prof. Kotkin's "demilitarized zone" come in? Am I missing something? There is absolutely no logical reason to introduce Korea in a discussion of Ukraine unless the DMZ and how well South Korea has done on its part of the DMZ is the intention.
Based on what the muscovites, themselves, allege and their intentions and the steps they have already taken to achieve those ends, how can we expect that they will conduct themselves in a manner other than the North Korean government? A divided Ukraine "for the sake of peace" is a non-starter.
South Korea is the most incredible economy in the world and Ukraine e will be the same once it’s out from under Russia. South Korea is going to overtake Canada this year economically and has high education rates like Ukraine and technological smarts on steroids like Ukraine
Ukraine must make the call when it all ends but it will be a winner economically. As for what Russia is left with if anything it will continue to be Trashcanistan like Russia is
We're in agreement on South Korea.......but that is besides the point . The issue is not the economic prospects for Ukraine once peace is restored. The whole thrust of the blog were current efforts to lure China away from supporting Moscovia and possible exchanges of quid pro quo between western powers and China that may bring about the peace. Ukraine has not fared well in those exchanges in the past.
If these exchanges bring about peace, and complete liberation of Ukrainian territory, and compensation for its damages, and return of its kidnapped citizens and children, I'm all for it. But If Ukraine is made to pay a price by giving up part of its territory and is pressured to accept a DMZ, then Moscovia will be rewarded for its monstrous deviltry.
BTW: I'm sure you are aware of it, but your readers may not.....Moscovia was the name by which Russia was known to the world prior to 1721. After the Battle of Poltava and the destruction of the Cossack state, Peter I renamed his nation "Russia" in order to graft unto his primitive, roguish nation a past and a heritage it did not have.....in other words stole Ukraine's identity. Elizabeth II doubled down on that and the two succeeded in wiping away any distinctiveness (in the minds of the West) between Ukraine and Russia. By using "Moscovia" I am simply returning to Russia the name it had before its identity theft. This is only a little appetizer of the huge wave of "inconvenient truths" that Moscovia will have to deal with after the war.
I'm not an expert, but I distrust Russia totally, even to obey an armistice designed and signed in China. I'd assume a full military defeat with no way back into the civilized world for Putin will be necessary and US and it's allies need to arm Ukraine fully and the quicker the better. If a China solution works out, great, but I wouldn't count on it.
Korea has lasted for 70 years and Cyprus too plus N. Ireland. It can happen. Keep the faith.
Excellent comment - I absolutely agree with your views!!!
This is not a bipolar world only a superpower duopoly. By "US" it means Europe, India, Japan, S.Korea and others while China is on its own and has the leverage, and motivation, to lean on Russia to stop. It cannot make it happen, but will isolate Russia thoroughly and stop the carnage for the time being. The American alliance is gigantic and represents the majority of the global econ. the Chinese have to deal with their issues themselves and may "liberalize". "Chip parity" is not the objective, but the ability to tap into technology to make cars, refrigerators and so on. It also may eliminate the necessity, it believes, of invading Taiwan because it's the chip capital of the world. That invasion makes no sense as China observes given the enormous alliance that Biden's built out of NATO and the Euros plus the Quad in Asia. This is not Chamberlain. THis is really really smart geopolitical chess.
The West accounts for over 50% total world GDP
Our power comes from our markets created by innovation, finance, and a well educated people.
Pride in our work, loyalty to god, family, country - most of it thrown out for a greater profit by multi nationals who preach that a global economy is good for consumers (buying less quality not lasting long) The Globalists are bandits supported by indoctrinated media hungry for their ad dollars so that they can survive.
Globalists sent their production equipment, intellectual property, and suppliers to China along with some of their staff to teach the Chinese how to use it. They paid 100% of the cost of new plants and received only 49% ownership just to save 30% on their product purchase price. They didn’t invest in new tech at home to achieve the same 30%.
To make even more the Globalists gave their customer lists to China so that shipping would be factory direct. They were surprised when the Chinese took over direct selling – several Globalists folded.
China held out a huge market potential and the Globalists sold out their countrymen for only a chance at it.
If the Globalists didn’t give the IP, then China bought two of the same product, reverse engineered one and figured out how to use the other one.
The Chinese haven’t kept their word to the Globalists. Why do we think they will change for world security?
Easy answer – they want the Russian energy fields.
good comments. China is in trouble and its appetite for chips is behind the Taiwan nonsense and will buy them onside. they won't have full access and certainly not for defense purposes. Also, china's new deal with Saudi Arabia and emirates guarantees them oil security even if they dump Russia as part of this deal.
I agree - chips are core. But I think a Russian energy field with direct pipe access would be bigger and more secure for them. If Putin uses tactical nukes his country will fall apart and China will absorb some of it.
All sounding warm and fuzzy for Ukraine- but where are the aircraft? So much is needed...
this could work for all involved
So Stephen Kotkin says: “The solution to the war is the US and China getting together to IMPOSE A SOLUTION on each side.” What is this? Kotkin is an academic who wrote a magisterial biography of Stalin, but he is not an expert on Ukraine; that would be Timothy Snyder of Harvard. I can guess what Synder would say, and I can also guess what the Ukrainians would say, not to mention the Poles, Germans, Swedes, etc. The US has already promised multiple times - mostly Anthony Blinken but also the President - the US will not do anything of the sort. I notice that Yellen’s long speech did not contain the word Taiwan, which is quite an omission. Kotkin then says China won’t ‘give up’ Russia unless it gets technology transfer - from the US, and then lo and behold: “China GIVES PEACE to Europe.” Really, this is pretty outrageous. So the Americans cut a deal with the Chinese for the thirty pieces of silver, i.e., top-end semi-conductors which are possibly the most valuable items in the world today (the Chinese already have the basic stuff ) - and in return China 'gives the gift of peace' not to Ukraine but to Europe. How? By what possible threat or incentive could Putin be persuaded, considering his life would be at stake. Respectfully, I suggest Stephen Kotkin is speculating beyond his pay grade.
Kotkin didn't conceive this strategy, but articulates it well. It's a great solution because:
1. China has leverage over Russia because it supports it financially with commodity imports
2. America is dedicated to Ukraine and will let it decide when to stop but it's bankrolling Ukraine and its defense.
3. China is being slowly strangled by The Chips Act
4. Trade is down for both countries
5. The war won't continue indefinitely and is damaging the world economy
What bothers me is: 1. This is only a great solution for China which is an authoritarian state trying hard to become a totalitarian state, with interests implacably opposed to the US and free world 2. It treats the world, especially Ukraine and Europe, as pieces on the superpower game board; why not include India then we would have a tripartite world just like in 1984 3. It hugely overpays China for its aid in leaning on Russia, by offering it 'chip parity' which is pretty much the same thing as offering nuclear parity 4. It presumes without evidence that China actually. has the heft to control the Kremlin. This reminds me horribly of Neville Chamberlain in 1938 buying (as he thought) 'peace in our time' in return for Czechoslovakia's subjugation.
South Korea has peace thanks to a boatload of money from the US plus US boots on the ground. The same is needed for Taiwan and now Ukraine. This will implode Russia and allow China to consummate its own invasion of the Stans
I'll believe it when I see it - my trust for China's peaceful attempt is paper thin. They have such horrific human rights issues, I need not say more.
they are in trouble and need detente and chips -- also I believe that is their interest in Taiwan
Excellent
wow ....lets hope something comes of all this ....problem is that putin is a pathological liar .....any peace agreement must be coupled with ironclad guarantees
Your payment method for subscription is a holy mess.I wish to continue .
Janet has the same view all normal and rational societies require to improve progress .Give fare trade achance to succeed.
Thank you, some very good news. Let's hope!
Excellent! But why was this not addressed by western newspapers??
A DMZ in Ukraine was determined by Russia in 2014 after Ukrainians drove out pitons odious Proxy President. In Korea DMZ was where fighting stalled or stopped and ukraines new DMZ with Russia will be on Ukraines terms
This is not about divvying up Ukraine. I'm convinced it will regain all its 2014 land then this deal will happen. As for Korea, the reality is that until Russians get their act together or break up into pieces they will remain a bigger version of "North Korea". Cannot stop that because they are defended with nukes
not relevant in my opinion. loose cannon or misquoted likely
Dear Diane...I love you dearly.....your blogs are always provocative and inspiring. But if this is not about divvying up Ukraine, then where does Prof. Kotkin's "demilitarized zone" come in? Am I missing something? There is absolutely no logical reason to introduce Korea in a discussion of Ukraine unless the DMZ and how well South Korea has done on its part of the DMZ is the intention.
Based on what the muscovites, themselves, allege and their intentions and the steps they have already taken to achieve those ends, how can we expect that they will conduct themselves in a manner other than the North Korean government? A divided Ukraine "for the sake of peace" is a non-starter.
South Korea is the most incredible economy in the world and Ukraine e will be the same once it’s out from under Russia. South Korea is going to overtake Canada this year economically and has high education rates like Ukraine and technological smarts on steroids like Ukraine
Ukraine must make the call when it all ends but it will be a winner economically. As for what Russia is left with if anything it will continue to be Trashcanistan like Russia is
We're in agreement on South Korea.......but that is besides the point . The issue is not the economic prospects for Ukraine once peace is restored. The whole thrust of the blog were current efforts to lure China away from supporting Moscovia and possible exchanges of quid pro quo between western powers and China that may bring about the peace. Ukraine has not fared well in those exchanges in the past.
If these exchanges bring about peace, and complete liberation of Ukrainian territory, and compensation for its damages, and return of its kidnapped citizens and children, I'm all for it. But If Ukraine is made to pay a price by giving up part of its territory and is pressured to accept a DMZ, then Moscovia will be rewarded for its monstrous deviltry.
BTW: I'm sure you are aware of it, but your readers may not.....Moscovia was the name by which Russia was known to the world prior to 1721. After the Battle of Poltava and the destruction of the Cossack state, Peter I renamed his nation "Russia" in order to graft unto his primitive, roguish nation a past and a heritage it did not have.....in other words stole Ukraine's identity. Elizabeth II doubled down on that and the two succeeded in wiping away any distinctiveness (in the minds of the West) between Ukraine and Russia. By using "Moscovia" I am simply returning to Russia the name it had before its identity theft. This is only a little appetizer of the huge wave of "inconvenient truths" that Moscovia will have to deal with after the war.
Bless you, Diane......you're the best!