Ukraine's Turning Point
August 22, 2024
On Saturday, August 24, Ukraine celebrates 33 years of independence from Moscow. Kyiv hasn’t staged military parades since the 2022 Russian invasion, but there certainly is cause for celebration this year. Ukrainian troops invaded and occupied a chunk of Russia in the Kursk Oblast. The fallout from this audacious military conquest – plus the siege of Crimea and a significant drone attack this week on Moscow -- has rattled the enemy, cratered the Ruble, undermined Vladimir Putin, and triggered geopolitical repositioning. Putin loses support at home and status abroad because his military, his red lines, and his Armageddon bluffs no longer work.
Cracks also appear inside Russia. Last year, Wagner Group mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin called for the war against Ukraine to end, staged a brief mutiny, and was assassinated. But since Kursk, another militia leader, Georgy Zakrevsky, said that the Russian army should overthrow Putin. “Our country is not just on the brink of disaster; our country is already in big trouble," he said. “Drones fly all over central Russia, up to Moscow and St. Petersburg. They even attacked the Kremlin. Our Black Sea fleet is being pushed out. The population is dying out, becoming impoverished, drinking itself to death - no one cares… And all this was done by the so-called 'president' - 'The Great' Putin."
Ukraine’s Kursk incursion marks a turning point because it brought the war to the Russians. Zakrevsky’s videos, like Prigozhin’s, have gone viral and represent a more significant threat to the Kremlin because he, unlike Prigozhin, is not alone. Oligarchs in Russia are unsettled, too, and they own hundreds more private militias. The concern raised about Kursk represents Ukraine’s most significant victory thus far. It exposes Russian weakness and Ukrainian daring and is a strategic masterstroke. Kyiv has taken hostage hundreds of prisoners of war, a nuclear plant, and 80 villages to be traded in future negotiations, and Putin cannot bomb the region back.
Two other prominent Russians -- oligarch Oleg Deripaska and former Security Council big shot Nicolai Patrushev -- have also publicly questioned Putin’s warmongering and leadership. An interesting piece last week in the Wall Street Journal by Russia expert Amy Knight quotes a recent interview in Nikkei Asia with Deripaska. He described the Ukraine war as “mad,” criticized Kremlin defense spending as excessive, and called for an “immediate, unconditional cease-fire.” He’s been critical in the past, but this time, political analyst Abbas Gallyamov said his openly challenging remarks likely represent the views of most oligarchs. “Deripaska is very analytical, so before saying such things, he always absorbs the mood of other elites. This is not the voice of Deripaska alone.”
Patrushev is a ranking member of Russia’s “siloviki” (the security forces that run Russia’s government) and was demoted in November. That month, he gave a speech referring to Putin in the past tense, which raised eyebrows, and then complained about the unfortunate brain drain caused by the war. In May, he was dropped from the security council and put in charge of shipbuilding.
Russia’s military failure upsets Russians because it also points out the regime’s corruption and cronyism, wrote Times writer Mark Galeoiti. Ukraine troops and Western vehicles blew past the Kursk border defenses that had been built at great expense. “Contracts for `dragon's teeth’ anti-tank defenses and similar obstacles were awarded to his cronies, and the money often ended up just being embezzled.” This has contributed to a sense of unease about his leadership, and a senator even told the news outlet Verstka that “the mood has become very alarming” about Putin’s future.
Outside Russia, geopolitical maneuvering has also been underway since Kursk. World leaders smell “weakness” in Moscow as it’s become evident that Russia faces a long war that it cannot win nor that Putin can survive. On August 18, Kremlin lapdog Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko suddenly declared that Moscow and Kyiv must eventually settle their differences through negotiations, or the conflict would end in the destruction of Ukraine. Another clue that there is insecurity occurred on August 1 when Putin swapped 24 Western captives in return for only 10 Russians, handing a victory to President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris. Such capitulation signaled that a peace deal was possible and that Putin did not believe that Trump would win in November.
The swap created a channel for future talks. The speculation is that India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi may become involved in a peace process. He is now involved in “damage control” following his heavily criticized meeting and warm hug with Putin in July. Modi was pilloried because it took place on the day that Russia bombed a children’s hospital in Ukraine. Thus, on August 19, the Indian leader announced he would go to Kyiv to meet President Volodymyr Zelensky on August 23 — the day before Ukraine’s independence celebration. Reports are that India has agreed to transfer messages between Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin during his visit on August 23. But that may be wishful thinking.
On August 19, another development, perhaps coincidental, also occurred. Mongolia scrapped the gigantic gas pipeline that was planned to deliver natural gas from Russia to China via Mongolia. The Power of Siberia 2 pipeline project would have replaced the European gas market. Now, that may never happen, stranding Russia’s energy reserves indefinitely. It’s also significant to note that China’s President Xi Jinping has never actually signed off on the pipeline deal since Russia invaded Ukraine. At the same time, Putin continues behaving like the pipeline will be built.
If Kamala Harris wins, the American election may bring more bad news for Putin. She will double down on supplying Ukraine with diplomatic and military firepower. And Joe Biden will remain US President for six more months, no matter who succeeds him. There is also already a deal in the works just in case Trump wins: Europe will finance the war, buy weapons from the United States to arm Ukraine, and pay for them with frozen Russian assets that are on deposit in Europe. Last week, one-time Putin friend, German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, stated that Berlin will “remain Europe's biggest supporter of Ukraine.”
Russia could be “checkmated” if Germany wholeheartedly arms Ukraine, wrote Russian chess master and politician Garry Kasparov in an open letter last week in German newspapers. “In the twentieth century, Germany brought immense suffering upon Europe. Because of this history, Berlin is responsible for preventing another human tragedy. Russia’s unprovoked onslaught in Ukraine grinds on, and it is time for Bundeskanzler Olaf Scholz to step up and give Kyiv everything it needs to protect its citizens. There is no time like the present: Ukraine’s recent moves in the Kursk region – using German equipment – mark a significant but limited success,” he said. “Ukraine’s offensive into Kursk demonstrates that the Ukrainians can win, but they need Western support to reach the finish line.”
Thank you for an another solid piece. I often feel overwhelmed by the number of news feeds I receive. I keep yours at the top of my list.
Fingers crossed it is a turning point. Anyone that wants a better understanding of what the war is like for the average Ukrainian should read Andrey Kurkov “Our Daily War”