Fingers crossed it is a turning point. Anyone that wants a better understanding of what the war is like for the average Ukrainian should read Andrey Kurkov “Our Daily War”
You may have exposed a central weakness in government by wealthy oligarchs. Enough of them are inherently greedy and put thier own success and profit above the goals of the supreme leader. That leader may assassinate those who betray him, but the greedy tend to believe they are smarter and can get away with it. Systems of kings, princes, earls, and dukes seem unlikely to guarantee success, even if they can be ruthless.
Dear Diane......I find myself very uncomfortable having to be a bit of a contrarian [like a skunk at a garden party :-) while reading your excellent and reassuring blog. And, of course, I cannot but hope that it also goes from your keyboard to God's ear. But here are my teeny-weeny kernels of concern amid so much good news: (1) Putin is a master at deception, and the timing of so much good news may not be fortuitous. He realizes that allowing UA forces to remain long on russian territory is very unsettling for russians but would be a brass ring for him if he resoundingly drives those forces back or even traps them. We have not seen any significant reaction yet, and his air force remains disengaged. Kursk residents have evacuated the territory, and a powerful blowback would be cheered by russians even if it results in much damage and casualties in Kursk. Remember how he dislodged terrorists from the school they held hostage and the casualties of that operation? Yet he was a "hero".
This may be the quiet before the storm. (2) UA cannot afford to continue its retreat in the face of russian forces continuing their advance in UA. Putin's immediate interest is to occupy 100% of the administrative limits of the four oblasts because that is what has been annexed by law in russia. UA's temporary and uneasy presence in Kursk will be viewed as a disastrous defeat for UA if it should appear that it was Putin and not Zelensky who benefitted by sending UA's very slim resources on some indeterminate mission to Kursk instead of defending and recovering UA territory. I would feel much better about this if we knew whether the cavalry (newly minted conscripts) was on its way to shore up UA's defenses. (3) The russian commander of his 300-member private army is unlikely to have assumed the risk of challenging Putin in such harsh terms as he did even if he felt he had the power structure behind him. Putin would have been able to swat him like a fly as an example to others, but it seems (till now) that he has left him unharmed. Was his call-out staged? (4) A call for an "immediate, unconditional cease-fire" does not sound like something Deripaska would do unless he wanted to put pressure on Z (from UA supporters) to accept a cease-fire that Putin sorely needs to reshuffle the deck. (5) As regards the pipeline to China, it seems that China is holding out for the same gas price as is charged domestically in russia......but this would not be profitable for russia. Chinese economic interests trump "eternal friendships" any day. (6) If Modi carries a note from Putin, it is equally possible that the note contains an offer that Z would not accept. The fact that Modi is personally bringing it has the purpose of lending it additional "persuasive" weight.
Ukraines excursion (counter attack) into Kursk Oblast should be seen for what it is. For once Ukraine has carried out an operation under its own volition, without having to seek the approval of its Western partners. And it has succeeded.
Ukraine was caught between a rock and a hard place, if it continued with the war of attrition as is taking place in Donetsk, eventually it would have been destroyed ie death by a thousand cuts. The attack in Kursk may have been one of its only option to turn the tables.
Ukraine has done a splendid job in attacking Kursk Oblast and seizing the territory it has and in the manner which it has. It is clear that Ukraine has learnt a lot since the failed offensive last year, for which I believe it bears little fault, except for agreeing to go ahead. That assault was carried out against established lines of defence with no air superiority, no secrecy and no overwhelming superiority of ground forces. Something which I believe Ukraines Western partners should take responsibility for.
The latest incursion took place against areas that were lightly defended, under greater secrecy, with experienced troops and superior electronic warfare capabilities. Control, if not superiority over the airspace was evident from day 1. Clearly Ukraine has learnt some lessons.
All (majority) the armchair experts condemned Ukraines action against Russia. I say to them that it is not their future at risk. Whilst there is clearly some risk in taking this action, who better than the Ukrainians themselves to judge this risk. No one knows what the Ukrainians have in mind as their final goal, but it is their country and their people who are dying. All the West supplies is weapons and intelligence. Does Ukraine have enough troops and equipment for another surprise attack?
Even if Putin has a plan up his sleeve to expel the Ukrainians from the Kursk Oblast (and it may even come off), he has suffered major damage to his reputation and this will leave him vulnerable to challenges to his leadership from within and without. As may already be happening.
Also, now is not the time to show any hesitation in the supplying of and authorising use of long range missile in Russia. Clearly the red lines of Putin are much like his morals - non existent. The use of nuclear weapons really are a sign of weakness and would not achieve what Putin hopes for - victory. The USA, France, UK and Germany have it in their power to put an end to this war by authorising the use of such weapons in Russia. If other countries outside of Europe such as South Korea, Japan and Australia (Bushmaster, Hawkei? and Slinger?) also provided more equipment, Putin would see that his options are becoming even more limited.
I do not trust Modi. He has elusions of grandeur, which extend far beyond his percieved control of India.
As I have mentioned in previous substacks, I believe Germany in particular has an obligation to act in the best interests of its European neighbours and lead the fight against the current fascist (Russian) powers. If only to go someways toward repaying the debt it owes to Europe and Ukraine in particular.
Yes Ukraine will win and in the final accounting, it will be largely with their home made drones. The US and Canada and Germany and France will be remembered as throttling Ukraine on its way to victory. The UK will get a very honorable mention. The ramification of this is that no one will look up to the West anymore for a moral beacon. That epicenter will shift eastward to the North Sea, Baltic Sea, and Ukraine itself.
Ukraine is doing the only thing that will get attention and overdue. This ends the use of atomic war as a tired threat. It is not without risk, but they know what that is.
While Germany's evolution to a moral position is to be praised, France seems to be losing its way. Can you give us an update on the fall out of Macron's silly gamble.
Excellent. Germany has followed an alliance with one of the most vicious anti-human rights regimes in the world, tied into the gas pipelines to supply its energy needs. The EU and USA should act to urge Germany to take on Putin and atack his vile regime. Am reading Autocracy, Inc by Anne Applebaum which tells us of the many dictatorships in the world and Russia is far from being alone. Let's wait and see what Kamala and Walz will do. Kamala little to her but Walz much more promising especially on Chinaese dictatorship.
Wonderful description on the turn of events in Russia, let's hope the oligarchs eat their own, that is Putin. It would be delightful to see Modi negotiate a cease fire to end this war, after all, India is a democracy, at least I believe it is? The question remains, if Putin is exiled, who takes over?
Invasion made possible by combined arms - first in the war so far. The biggest Soviet airfield and border protective zone with possible nuclear plant - not a bad incursion!
15 million illegals into USA; 2.5 million added jobs above pre pandemic adjusted down by 1 million means about half illegals, say 7 million new unemployed - and unemployment figures hardly up.
Thank you for an another solid piece. I often feel overwhelmed by the number of news feeds I receive. I keep yours at the top of my list.
Fingers crossed it is a turning point. Anyone that wants a better understanding of what the war is like for the average Ukrainian should read Andrey Kurkov “Our Daily War”
You may have exposed a central weakness in government by wealthy oligarchs. Enough of them are inherently greedy and put thier own success and profit above the goals of the supreme leader. That leader may assassinate those who betray him, but the greedy tend to believe they are smarter and can get away with it. Systems of kings, princes, earls, and dukes seem unlikely to guarantee success, even if they can be ruthless.
Dear Diane......I find myself very uncomfortable having to be a bit of a contrarian [like a skunk at a garden party :-) while reading your excellent and reassuring blog. And, of course, I cannot but hope that it also goes from your keyboard to God's ear. But here are my teeny-weeny kernels of concern amid so much good news: (1) Putin is a master at deception, and the timing of so much good news may not be fortuitous. He realizes that allowing UA forces to remain long on russian territory is very unsettling for russians but would be a brass ring for him if he resoundingly drives those forces back or even traps them. We have not seen any significant reaction yet, and his air force remains disengaged. Kursk residents have evacuated the territory, and a powerful blowback would be cheered by russians even if it results in much damage and casualties in Kursk. Remember how he dislodged terrorists from the school they held hostage and the casualties of that operation? Yet he was a "hero".
This may be the quiet before the storm. (2) UA cannot afford to continue its retreat in the face of russian forces continuing their advance in UA. Putin's immediate interest is to occupy 100% of the administrative limits of the four oblasts because that is what has been annexed by law in russia. UA's temporary and uneasy presence in Kursk will be viewed as a disastrous defeat for UA if it should appear that it was Putin and not Zelensky who benefitted by sending UA's very slim resources on some indeterminate mission to Kursk instead of defending and recovering UA territory. I would feel much better about this if we knew whether the cavalry (newly minted conscripts) was on its way to shore up UA's defenses. (3) The russian commander of his 300-member private army is unlikely to have assumed the risk of challenging Putin in such harsh terms as he did even if he felt he had the power structure behind him. Putin would have been able to swat him like a fly as an example to others, but it seems (till now) that he has left him unharmed. Was his call-out staged? (4) A call for an "immediate, unconditional cease-fire" does not sound like something Deripaska would do unless he wanted to put pressure on Z (from UA supporters) to accept a cease-fire that Putin sorely needs to reshuffle the deck. (5) As regards the pipeline to China, it seems that China is holding out for the same gas price as is charged domestically in russia......but this would not be profitable for russia. Chinese economic interests trump "eternal friendships" any day. (6) If Modi carries a note from Putin, it is equally possible that the note contains an offer that Z would not accept. The fact that Modi is personally bringing it has the purpose of lending it additional "persuasive" weight.
Ukraines excursion (counter attack) into Kursk Oblast should be seen for what it is. For once Ukraine has carried out an operation under its own volition, without having to seek the approval of its Western partners. And it has succeeded.
Ukraine was caught between a rock and a hard place, if it continued with the war of attrition as is taking place in Donetsk, eventually it would have been destroyed ie death by a thousand cuts. The attack in Kursk may have been one of its only option to turn the tables.
Ukraine has done a splendid job in attacking Kursk Oblast and seizing the territory it has and in the manner which it has. It is clear that Ukraine has learnt a lot since the failed offensive last year, for which I believe it bears little fault, except for agreeing to go ahead. That assault was carried out against established lines of defence with no air superiority, no secrecy and no overwhelming superiority of ground forces. Something which I believe Ukraines Western partners should take responsibility for.
The latest incursion took place against areas that were lightly defended, under greater secrecy, with experienced troops and superior electronic warfare capabilities. Control, if not superiority over the airspace was evident from day 1. Clearly Ukraine has learnt some lessons.
All (majority) the armchair experts condemned Ukraines action against Russia. I say to them that it is not their future at risk. Whilst there is clearly some risk in taking this action, who better than the Ukrainians themselves to judge this risk. No one knows what the Ukrainians have in mind as their final goal, but it is their country and their people who are dying. All the West supplies is weapons and intelligence. Does Ukraine have enough troops and equipment for another surprise attack?
Even if Putin has a plan up his sleeve to expel the Ukrainians from the Kursk Oblast (and it may even come off), he has suffered major damage to his reputation and this will leave him vulnerable to challenges to his leadership from within and without. As may already be happening.
Also, now is not the time to show any hesitation in the supplying of and authorising use of long range missile in Russia. Clearly the red lines of Putin are much like his morals - non existent. The use of nuclear weapons really are a sign of weakness and would not achieve what Putin hopes for - victory. The USA, France, UK and Germany have it in their power to put an end to this war by authorising the use of such weapons in Russia. If other countries outside of Europe such as South Korea, Japan and Australia (Bushmaster, Hawkei? and Slinger?) also provided more equipment, Putin would see that his options are becoming even more limited.
I do not trust Modi. He has elusions of grandeur, which extend far beyond his percieved control of India.
As I have mentioned in previous substacks, I believe Germany in particular has an obligation to act in the best interests of its European neighbours and lead the fight against the current fascist (Russian) powers. If only to go someways toward repaying the debt it owes to Europe and Ukraine in particular.
Yes Ukraine will win and in the final accounting, it will be largely with their home made drones. The US and Canada and Germany and France will be remembered as throttling Ukraine on its way to victory. The UK will get a very honorable mention. The ramification of this is that no one will look up to the West anymore for a moral beacon. That epicenter will shift eastward to the North Sea, Baltic Sea, and Ukraine itself.
Ukraine is doing the only thing that will get attention and overdue. This ends the use of atomic war as a tired threat. It is not without risk, but they know what that is.
While Germany's evolution to a moral position is to be praised, France seems to be losing its way. Can you give us an update on the fall out of Macron's silly gamble.
good idea and I'll look at that but my first take is that Macron's gamble paid off and French parties got together
Excellent. Germany has followed an alliance with one of the most vicious anti-human rights regimes in the world, tied into the gas pipelines to supply its energy needs. The EU and USA should act to urge Germany to take on Putin and atack his vile regime. Am reading Autocracy, Inc by Anne Applebaum which tells us of the many dictatorships in the world and Russia is far from being alone. Let's wait and see what Kamala and Walz will do. Kamala little to her but Walz much more promising especially on Chinaese dictatorship.
Walz is quite the Sinophile.
Wonderful description on the turn of events in Russia, let's hope the oligarchs eat their own, that is Putin. It would be delightful to see Modi negotiate a cease fire to end this war, after all, India is a democracy, at least I believe it is? The question remains, if Putin is exiled, who takes over?
yikes, one step at a time.
Thank you Diane. As always, an excellent report.
But ukraine didnt take the nuclear plant, why is it in the article?
they have it because it's surrounded
Invasion made possible by combined arms - first in the war so far. The biggest Soviet airfield and border protective zone with possible nuclear plant - not a bad incursion!
15 million illegals into USA; 2.5 million added jobs above pre pandemic adjusted down by 1 million means about half illegals, say 7 million new unemployed - and unemployment figures hardly up.
Dosen't sound even close to correct.