War and Pieces

January 20, 2024

Donald Trump has been upending the world order well before his Inauguration today with tough rhetoric and harsh tactics. He hasn’t ended the Ukrainian war yet, as promised, but intends to do so in 100 days and has pushed NATO allies to pull their weight. However, yesterday, the day before his Inauguration, Trump succeeded in brokering a truce and prisoner exchange deal for hostages in Gaza following his “all hell to pay” threat last month. Obtaining a pause in the 15-month war in Gaza and liberating 98 hostages is no small feat, but the deal is fragile. And it is not a permanent solution. Lebanon teeters on the brink of collapse, Syria has fallen apart, Gaza is now the world’s biggest refugee camp, and Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his government are deeply unpopular. Worse, the culprits -- Vladimir Putin and Iran’s Masoud Pezeshkian – have not been punished and, on January 17, thumbed their noses at the West by signing a 20-year military deal. The Iranian President said in the Kremlin: “They [Americans] come from another side of the world to make chaos in the region. These ties will defuse their plot.”

The 20-year pact between Iran and Russia was just signed in Moscow.

The Israeli-Hamas truce is an accomplishment despite many unresolved issues. Trump’s team pressured Israel’s government to sign despite infighting. Israeli’s intelligence chief, Ronen Bar of Shin Bet, was against the prisoner release. He warned that 82% of Palestinians released in a prior deal returned to terror activity and that this week’s deal will result in the same outcome. Another criticism is that this deal has no “day after” plan. The Biden administration wanted to create an international security force to work with an interim Palestinian Authority-backed government that included Gazans. But Netanyahu has repeatedly ruled out agreeing to end the war permanently or to ever pull his forces out of Gaza. And no country wants to take control of the “strip.” The US won’t put boots on the ground, and neither will others. But all agree that Hamas cannot be in charge of Gaza again.

Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners reject the notion of Palestinian statehood. So do Russia and Iran. Their October 7 terrorist attack against Israel was aimed at dismantling Trump’s Abraham Accords signed between Israel and the moderate Arab regimes. Now, Israel’s extreme right wing insists on annexing the West Bank, building Jewish settlements in Gaza, disbanding the Palestinian Authority, and waging all-out war against Iran. Speculation is that Trump hopes for another Abraham Accords grand bargain with Saudi Arabia, but that’s unlikely. “Riyadh insists that this could only happen if Israel took irreversible steps towards a Palestinian state,” noted an American commentator.

Israelis remain divided internally on all issues – including the war -- and are exhausted. This week, Netanyahu’s far-right ministers dubbed the truce-and-exchange deal as a “surrender” and threatened to resign from his cabinet. But on January 18, a public poll revealed that 73% of Israelis support the ceasefire and prisoner exchange, including 52% of voters from the right-wing coalition. The Times of Israel reported, “They [Israel’s right] love Trump, but many loathe the ceasefire deal he demanded. The wariness follows reports that Trump and his incoming Middle East envoy, US real estate tycoon Steve Witkoff, turned the screws on Netanyahu to get him to say yes to the ceasefire deal. Upon the deal’s announcement, Trump called it “EPIC.”

ACLED. Armed Conflict Location and Event Data. 2024. Orange circles indicate political violence and green circles demonstrations

There’s also the issue of Syria and Lebanon, where the war has spread. This fall, a collection of rebels in alliance with Turkey overthrew Syria’s vile Bashar Al-Assad regime, driving out the Russian and Iranian forces that have propped up Hamas, Hezbollah, and his government. Up to 13 million Syrians were driven out of their country after 2011, and millions will likely return from Europe, North America, refugee camps in Turkey and Jordan, or neighboring nations. Israel played no role in the Syrian putsch but has, along with the Americans, been destroying Russian and Iranian military facilities and militias there. Turkey and the European Union have been providing humanitarian assistance amid hopes the rebels will build a democratic government that protects all citizens. But that’s a question mark because some of its leaders are Muslim extremists.

Regarding war-torn Lebanon, Trump’s team sternly warned Israelis not to allow their ceasefire agreement to collapse. That deal, begun November 27, is to last until the end of January to give the Lebanese Armed Forces enough time to dismantle Hezbollah’s weapons and storage facilities in southern Lebanon. On January 9, the Arab News pointed out: “Lebanon’s parliament electing Army Chief of Staff Joseph Aoun as the country’s next president marks a pivotal moment for Lebanon, its neighbors, and the broader region. After more than two years without a president, today signifies the first night in a long time that the Lebanese people will sleep with a leader in office, rekindling hope to restore Lebanon’s sovereignty, which has been undermined for years by Hezbollah and its Iranian backers.”

However, Arab reaction to this Israel-Hamas deal is mixed. “The ceasefire agreed by Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas has brought some optimism that Israel’s 15-month war on Gaza will finally end and Israeli captives and Palestinian prisoners will be released. But some analysts still have uncertainty that the deal … will go ahead as planned,” wrote Aljazeera’s Mat Nashed, citing experts. Some believe the deal was rushed to occur before the Inauguration to please Trump and that Israel will resume hostilities after the captives are recovered to ostensibly “punish” the Palestinian group while somehow blaming Hamas for the failure of the deal. “Israel is very good at breaking ceasefires and making it appear that it wasn’t its fault,” said Mairav Zonszein, an official with the International Crisis Group.

A Russian mercenary who trained Hamas in Syria. Al Jazeera

The good news is that wars have dramatically reduced Russian and Iranian hegemony in the region and undermined their regimes. The Jerusalem Post wrote: “Iran’s public discontent surged recently as economic hardships, including widespread power outages and rising inflation, fueled calls for change…People are very angry with the regime for squandering funds, oil revenues, and resources in Syria, which fell alongside Hezbollah. The regime has poured $50 billion into Syria from 2000 until now, all of which vanished into thin air, along with funds sent to Lebanon and other places. All of this gives the Iranian public—80% of whom oppose the regime—hope.”

Ideally, a revolution breaks out in Iran. But more pragmatically, an alliance must be formed involving America, Israel, Europe, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and moderate Arab nations to eradicate terrorist, Iranian, and Russian influence across the region. Then, they must help pick up the pieces left behind by the most recent conflicts that have ravaged the Middle East.